PhineasC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 well if you care to look the 0z euro was 200 miles EAST of that thats quite a shift for 1 run of course I am not sure how having 850 temps at 192 hrs over DC of -9c is warm and wet but then I am not very good at this sort of thing ...... Dave, we first get a suppressed clipper that dives into freaking NC, then we get a cutter, and now we have another storm shunted south and beat up by the mega-block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 god almighty I LOVE it when the fooking -AO TANKS and the -NAO classic west based mid atlantic favorite spot This has to be saved as a classic post. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 dont agree In the first frame DCA is perhaps right on the .1mm line. In the second DC is just barely south of the 2.5mm line with the 5mm dark blue band starting around Aquia. So, let's call that 3mm for DC. In the third frame the dark blue 5 - 7.5mm band represents a relatively tight gradient that might be as far north as Aquia (again). So, I'd say 4mm in that frame for a total of 7mm at DC. Finally, in the last frame of this abysmal model, the 5 - 7.5mm band is extremely tightly warped around the green >7.5mm blob which is well to DC's east. In this image IAD would appear to be at the western edge of the 2.5 - 5mm band with DC in the eastern most edge of that. So...perhaps 4mm for DC in that frame for a total of 11mm. When I go through the same, painstakingly pointless, process to add up all the precip for RIC I arrive at around 18mm as Inudaw came up with. Oh, and should it matter, it looks like a good bit of that would have been rain. I have to admit I only checked the two image links you posted (for 144hr and 156hr) when I arrived at 5mm for DC. I had no idea that the GGEM had publicly accessible images beyond 144hr, I was surprised by the 156hr and didn't even consider 168hr. They do a good job with 2wk - 3wk ensemble temperature forecasting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dave, we first get a suppressed clipper that dives into freaking NC, then we get a cutter, and now we have another storm shunted south and beat up by the mega-block. I'm glad someone's willing to make it public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm glad someone's willing to make it public. The classic syntax/diction was a hint, but the trademark "Don't agree" was the dead giveaway. (Edited my poor grammar. Ironic, eh?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The classic syntax/diction were a hint, but the trademark "Don't agree" were the dead giveaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 ooohh, Dave's in the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dec. 16/17, 1973 is the first thing to come to mind when I read the thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18Z NAM likes Thurs possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm thinking the precip (see: wintry mix) stays south of D.C., but further north than the GFS/Euro are currently indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the 500 pattern looks similar to the one for the squelched clipper for now.. partly why im cautious about any weekend event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the 500 pattern looks similar to the one for the squelched clipper for now.. partly why im cautious about any weekend event as well looking at the 700mb map, there's a direct flow from decent precip areas to our w/sw to us, which is different from the last event otherwise I agree it is similar whether the diff at this point makes a difference in the end result, I guess we'll have to cross our fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yeah it looks like there is more moisture available though the gfs has trended the wrong direction lately i think and moisture content is always hard to buy at this range. i think we may need the block to shift back further west to give is better odds which is kind of what's showing on the euro for the next weekend storms. either way i guess it's good to have two sort of legit interests in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm all in for the 84 NAM. Two clippers in two weeks missing us to the south? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z Nam is a bit out on its own though with regard to the how far north it is. :X Caution to the wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z Nam is a bit out on its own though with regard to the how far north it is. :X Caution to the wind! I'm already all in. I can't take it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z GFS says NO to everything...the 1st threat...the 2nd threat..the 3rd threat. No way the 00z euro has this storm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z GFS says NO to everything...the 1st threat...the 2nd threat..the 3rd threat. No way the 00z euro has this storm tonight Take a breath and go outside and rake some of my leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z GFS says NO to everything...the 1st threat...the 2nd threat..the 3rd threat. No way the 00z euro has this storm tonight You failed to notice that the 18z GFS trended towards the Euro. The storm is chilling off the SE Coast at HR.156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 You failed to notice that the 18z GFS trended towards the Euro. The storm is chilling off the SE Coast at HR.156. you mean this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 you mean this one? Thar she blows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 our best hope for snow is tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this is classic....i see this about 15 times every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this is classic....i see this about 15 times every winter This is worse than 2007-2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z GFS says NO to everything...the 1st threat...the 2nd threat..the 3rd threat. No way the 00z euro has this storm tonight Not sure I would be so fast on that... 18Z GFS has identified a low that wasn't there before - too far East to be of use for MA snows, but still a development in the right direction. 18Z GFS hr174: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_174.shtml 12Z GFS hr 180: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_180.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 you mean this one? Right where we want it at this time? Although this looks closer to the Euro ensemble mean---which was east of the OP Euro. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I just noticed that this thread was derailed, going to put it back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Interesting ensemble mean the GFS has. Clearly much further north than the operational. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Interesting ensemble mean the GFS has. Clearly much further north than the operational. :X Looks like the Euro eh? Perhaps the NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks like the Euro eh? Perhaps the NAM as well. Has a bit different look for the 84 - 96 hr time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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