mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 today's 12z NAM: DCA: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt BWI: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt CHO (the winner): http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kcho.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 But there is still a disconnect between the 500h trough (way north and weak) and the surface wave. That makes me think the lighter GFS is probably more right than the NAM for precip amounts especially up near dc. I could see a dusting to an inch but doubt much more than that for DCA and my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro still good it appears for some snow from C VA up to around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Afternoon AFD from LWX I`VE INTRODUCED MENTION OF SN INTO THE FCST FOR THU AS LOW PRESDVLPS OVR KY AND MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN THU AFTN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MDLS REGARDING THE XACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LK THE TRACK WL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE S THAT LWX CWA SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR - ALL SIGNS ARE 850 TEMP WL BE BLO FRZG SO SN LOOKS TO THE P-TYPE. WE`RE STILL 3 DAYS AWAY....BUT THE TRACK IS SUCH THAT A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL OVR PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HV INSERTED CHC POPS FOR THU AFTN. LATER SHIFTS CAN EXPAND/REFINE AS NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Maddening... 18Z NAM is a clean miss after worrying about P-Type at 12Z. It's struggling with handling the cyclone of death. Edit: See post above for the jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 But there is still a disconnect between the 500h trough (way north and weak) and the surface wave. That makes me think the lighter GFS is probably more right than the NAM for precip amounts especially up near dc. I could see a dusting to an inch but doubt much more than that for DCA and my house. FOR DC I strongly agree the Massive vortex / cold air ensured that for DC may not get into IT earlier today I got into big debate with some RIC TV mets that even for RIC this might not be any sleet and the bigger issue would be more to the south and a flatter wave thats is huge friggin vortex over Maine .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 0Z NAM coming in way suppressed ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What is the Euro showing for this Thursday "storm"? Is it N or S of the NAM and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What is the Euro showing for this Thursday "storm"? Is it N or S of the NAM and GFS? 00Z just coming in now... about the same as the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hmmm... the UKIE... looks good I believe http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What is the Euro showing for this Thursday "storm"? Is it N or S of the NAM and GFS? Our qpf is .10-.25, i would take that as an appetizer before hopefully our Sat night Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hmmm... the UKIE... looks good I believe http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 It does but it is all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It does but it is all by itself. Looks like the 6Z nam on the 700 mb humidity tries to link up the weekend storm with the back edge of precip from the clipper on Friday. Nam looks good at 500 mb and 700 mb at 84 hours it would appear, as the northern vort seems to be showing signs of dropping in. Who knows with the 84 hour NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 6Z GFS seems a little north with the first event. Precip line just below DC and me unfortunately. Still has the bigger weekend storm east. But it is rounding the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Our qpf is .10-.25, i would take that as an appetizer before hopefully our Sat night Sunday storm. I would be surprised if thursday if you got that Much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I would be surprised if thursday if you got that Much I would be too, but its the Euro showed last night according to tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like the 6Z nam on the 700 mb humidity tries to link up the weekend storm with the back edge of precip from the clipper on Friday. Nam looks good at 500 mb and 700 mb at 84 hours it would appear, as the northern vort seems to be showing signs of dropping in. Who knows with the 84 hour NAM though. Well the 12z 84 hr nam now agrees with Ukie, but that and a dollar will get you a can of soda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I would be surprised if thursday if you got that Much I was just stating the euro qpf because he asked, but hopefully we will get atleast an inch so it can make things pretty around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z GFS 700mb RH maps at 48 would suggest at least some fluries/snsh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like the 12z GFS came in line with the 00z EURO somewhat... DCA is in the .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z GFS 700mb RH maps at 48 would suggest at least some fluries/snsh... Rgr - 12z GFS remains bullish on this through 60hrs. Main question as far as GFS goes remains the temps - although I still suspect the NAM is more realistic in squashing things towards the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 RGEM bullish it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Also looks like the GGEM also nudged north at 48 and 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Also looks like the GGEM also nudged north at 48 and 60 We are probably good for some flurries at this point. Maybe more if it keeps coming north. I'm happy with my half inch from this morning, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We are probably good for some flurries at this point. Maybe more if it keeps coming north. I'm happy with my half inch from this morning, though. I think we see more than flurries TBH. I think we see somewhere around an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Gutsy call Yoda. I think this one stays south. Maybe some flurries. The PV is just raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Gutsy call Yoda. I think this one stays south. Maybe some flurries. The PV is just raging. FWIW, the 12Z NOGAPS also seems pretty keen on the Thurs/Fri event - but then it sends the weekend storm way out to sea.... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12znogaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Gutsy call Yoda. I think this one stays south. Maybe some flurries. The PV is just raging. This helps me: first storm at hr 54 and 60 gives dc about an inch of snow We'll see if 18z NAM pulls a Lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FWIW, the 12Z NOGAPS also seems pretty keen on the Thurs/Fri event - but then it sends the weekend storm way out to sea.... http://raleighwx.ame.../12znogaps.html Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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