mattie g Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The presence of the SE ridge for now leaves me sanguine. I love this kind of fall November weather, and if it sticks around the entire month, that's cool. Absolutely. Yet another unbelievably beautiful fall day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 not at all http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest A new low.. canceling winter based on a random 10 day model run in early November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Absolutely. Yet another unbelievably beautiful fall day today. Bring it on! Keep November like this and then bring on the snow in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I don't disagree with respect to the sensible weather, but I would prefer that the month was wet vs. dry because I believe (fwiw) that wet NOVs more often than not precede decent winters I guess, altho I gotta say, I had enough wet from August - October to last me for a month or so. But, yeah, hope that wasn't the wet period and we flip to dry from now to March. That would be less than ideal. I am hoping this is a pause to the wet pattern, and we return wet in about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A new low.. canceling winter based on a random 10 day model run in early November Generally speaking your right. Being concerned over a few runs in Nov is pretty silly. However, the models have been consistently showing a prolonged -pna / se ridge combo. That is something to be a little concerned about. -pna / se ridge is a pretty textbook Nina look. We've been down this path before. The flip is always at the end of the run and it keeps getting pushed back. Not say that this is going to happen but I am going to keep and eye on the lr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I guess, altho I gotta say, I had enough wet from August - October to last me for a month or so. But, yeah, hope that wasn't the wet period and we flip to dry from now to March. That would be less than ideal. I am hoping this is a pause to the wet pattern, and we return wet in about a month. Nina's are not known for precip along the ec. Pretty much every analog will show normal or below normal precip during djf in these parts. That's totally fine though. Wet winters usually mean lotsa rain to go along with snow. We average about 10" of precip during djf and only 1.5 - 2.5" of that comes in the form of snow on average across the area. Expectations are pretty much set at the lower end. The one good thing about a 15-25" average annual snowfall is that one or two storms can = climo. It's not like areas up north who average 40-60". They need alot of storms to have an average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Down with winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Nina's are not known for precip along the ec. Pretty much every analog will show normal or below normal precip during djf in these parts. That's totally fine though. Wet winters usually mean lotsa rain to go along with snow. We average about 10" of precip during djf and only 1.5 - 2.5" of that comes in the form of snow on average across the area. Expectations are pretty much set at the lower end. The one good thing about a 15-25" average annual snowfall is that one or two storms can = climo. It's not like areas up north who average 40-60". They need alot of storms to have an average winter. Yeah, I know nina's are generally dry. Not my first rodeo. But there is a difference between less precip, and no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A new low.. canceling winter based on a random 10 day model run in early November wtf? who canceled winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Down with winter!!! But good news...384hr GFS now looks cold for Thanksgiving! The pattern the next couple weeks looks progressive. The SE ridge never goes away, but a few troughs swing through as well giving us some interludes of below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Generally speaking your right. Being concerned over a few runs in Nov is pretty silly. However, the models have been consistently showing a prolonged -pna / se ridge combo. That is something to be a little concerned about. -pna / se ridge is a pretty textbook Nina look. We've been down this path before. The flip is always at the end of the run and it keeps getting pushed back. Not say that this is going to happen but I am going to keep and eye on the lr. Frankly I'm fine with that in November, we had the same exact thing last November too, even a tornado in Baltimore while 70 degrees at 1AM, so the pattern shown wouldn't be too bad relatively, the MJO is also progressive right now. If it's gonna happen let it happen in Novemer or early December/late February rather than in the heart of winter. The last cold November we had in 2008 ended up being a terrible year for snow and featured that SE ridge in December, while the November 2009 and 2010 were both mild with colder/wetter Octobers preceding them, which is what we've had this time too. I'll take the cool October/warm November combo anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 6z Gfs is a complete disaster.71 on thanksgiving day. Awful start to winter. Not ready to cancel yet but So funny..every November is the same thing..you wanna know why it's mild?..It's November..winter doesn't kick in till early to mid December every year..trying to look for arctic outbreaks and snowstorms on the GFS this time of year is a waste of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Over the last 20 years november has warmed more than any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Frankly I'm fine with that in November, we had the same exact thing last November too, even a tornado in Baltimore while 70 degrees at 1AM, so the pattern shown wouldn't be too bad relatively, the MJO is also progressive right now. If it's gonna happen let it happen in Novemer or early December/late February rather than in the heart of winter. The last cold November we had in 2008 ended up being a terrible year for snow and featured that SE ridge in December, while the November 2009 and 2010 were both mild with colder/wetter Octobers preceding them, which is what we've had this time too. I'll take the cool October/warm November combo anyday. It's not a warm/cold Nov that has my eye. It's the 500mb setup that I don't like. Last Nov we were all worried about a warm winter but it didn't happen because we had a good atlantic, -ao, and some persistent high latitude blocking. I still expect this winter to be pretty ok temp wise and at least average enough snow to not call it a crappy winter come March. If we enter Dec and still have a persistent high in the goa, trough west, and big ole se ridge then the weenie suicide hotline better hire some temp workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 So funny..every November is the same thing..you wanna know why it's mild?..It's November..winter doesn't kick in till early to mid December every year..trying to look for arctic outbreaks and snowstorms on the GFS this time of year is a waste of energy or a sad commentary on his life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 So funny..every November is the same thing..you wanna know why it's mild?..It's November..winter doesn't kick in till early to mid December every year..trying to look for arctic outbreaks and snowstorms on the GFS this time of year is a waste of energy I remember when it was 80 degrees in the middle of November 1993 and thinking to myself what a horrible winter we were going to get...Was fooled the opposite way in 1989...When I moved to Staten Island in November 1996 it was cold and I was thinking about another great winter coming up...Right now the AO is positive...It's been like this since the Summer ended...It was negative for a few days near the end of October ...It managed to help bring near record cold and a early season snowstorm...This year didn't need record blocking to help get a record snowstorm in the northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 oops....well...there is always next weak Nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 oops....well...there is always next weak Nina! Was anyone ever considering 1995/96 snow totals? Thats probably not going to happen for at least another century during a weak La Nina, 1995/96 was a total fluke, a weak La Nina preceded by near Constant El Nino for the previous 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 why is there always a La Nina..it seems like 8 out of 10 winters are La Nina now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 why is there always a La Nina..it seems like 8 out of 10 winters are La Nina now Nah, there's been 4 ninos and 2 ninas in the last 10 years (this year would make 3 ninas). Ninas just have a propensity to suck more so they leave mental scars more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 why is there always a La Nina..it seems like 8 out of 10 winters are La Nina now PDO switched, Geomag sun quieted down, both will help us in the long run, but often feature La Nina dominance in the Pacific as the planet reduces its energy budget over time. At least that's my opinion put in simple terms. Still releasing latent heat though which is why there is a qualitative 5-8 year lag in temps. 4 out of the past 5 winters have been cold ENSO as would be expected in a Geomag reduction. 2007/08 was a La Nina, 2008/09 is considered a La Nina by many, 2010/11 was a La Nina, 2011/12 is a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 1320801751[/url]' post='1104767']why is there always a La Nina..it seems like 8 out of 10 winters are La Nina now In the last long term PDO cycle there were only 3 serious Ninos in 32 winters....Nina will be dominant for a while probably. Honestly, our best bet is not just to hope for the next niño, but also to hope it doesn't flip the next winter. Neutral years/periods after niño aren't bad....the PAC is usually more helpful and you can get a southern stream.....if we are in a 3 year Nina, I still would bet on an 8-14" storm either this winter or next with the blocking regime we are in and all the big storms lately...maybe both winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Models are vomit-inducing for now, by Thanksgiving I usually like to see the wx change to colder. Hopefully the positive EPO can subside and we can unload that cold air in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Models are vomit-inducing for now, by Thanksgiving I usually like to see the wx change to colder. Hopefully the positive EPO can subside and we can unload that cold air in Canada. the rubber band will snap, but probably closer to 12/1 than the original target of most around 11/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 No precip here for November through the first nine days. NAM/GFS have pretty much been insistent that nothing of consequence falls tomorrow. Then another week of dry progged after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 No precip here for November through the first nine days. NAM/GFS have pretty much been insistent that nothing of consequence falls tomorrow. Then another week of dry progged after that. I'm trying to think of when I last saw a cloud, and I can't remember seeing one since the day after the snow storm. It's been a remarkably clear stretch of weather, gorgeous actually. The lows have been below normal 12 of the last 13 days, and the one day was exactly normal. Even last night made it below freezing here (31F), the 5th night in a row, as well as 10 of the last 12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 This is the worst winter since 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 This is the worst winter since 01-02 It's not winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 No precip here for November through the first nine days. NAM/GFS have pretty much been insistent that nothing of consequence falls tomorrow. Then another week of dry progged after that. Going on 12 days here with just a few hundreths thrown in there...ground is pretty dry considering the amount we are ahead for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 It's not winter yet. you'll look like a smurf and still won't get through to him just sit back, enjoy the JI show, and torment the he!! out of him with extreme warm and snow-less scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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