HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 yeah that's the part that is just unreal. i'm never really surprised when it snows at 2K in the berks or S VT or the catskills or something. it could do it in august and i'd be only kinda surprised. LOL. but seeing snow atthe beaches this time of year, and significant, mid-winter-worthy, totals just a few miles back, is unreal. this is a probably what a 2 or 3 on the NESIS scale?? LOL. MRG just got wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 The event that compares best for me is the "Perfect Storm" same time of year, tropical influence in common and another unforgettable over-performer, just much different effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Climo starts to exponentially increase the odds of snow closer to the coast after the first and second week of November. The Veteran's Day storm which I actually remember was really anomalous for se mass. You won't see something like that for cstl pym county for a long long time. But, this storm was another dimension in terms of the calendar date and size of impacts. I wouldn't plan on seeing it again but there is more water content available this time of year I suppose. Perfect storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 Well not that it's not notable but you can theoretically get a damaging tornado just about any time of the year. And if it mowed down a bunch of trees it probably wouldn't even be considered IMO. I know... I've heard a few prominent mets on here say they consider ORH a 1 in 500 year type of thing... But then there was Windsor Locks '79, this past June's event, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I wouldn't plan on seeing it again but there is more water content available this time of year I suppose. Perfect storm.. This storm had a ton of juice. At one point I think 700mb temps were near 0C over the Cape and like -12 to -14 out by the Berks and Albany. You throw all that juice into one mega frontogenesis band, and you get the results that we saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 The event that compares best for me is the "Perfect Storm" same time of year, tropical influence in common and another unforgettable over-performer, just much different effects. I thought about Wilma interacting with a coastal prior to the event. The general idea is not crazy in October but of course that one was much further into the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 the event speaks for itself. it's essentially never happened before in recorded modern history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I thought about Wilma interacting with a coastal prior to the event. The general idea is not crazy in October but of course that one was much further into the interior. You should send Jebman up here to clear everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I know... I've heard a few prominent mets on here say they consider ORH a 1 in 500 year type of thing... But then there was Windsor Locks '79, this past June's event, etc. No doubt.. we had a "1,000 year" rain event in some spots near here in early Sept. Still, I'd bet we see something like that again before a copy of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 the event speaks for itself. it's essentially never happened before in recorded modern history. my girlfriend's parents are back on the cape now.. 2 weeks without power (new hartford, ct) forced a late vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 my girlfriend's parents are back on the cape now.. 2 weeks without power (new hartford, ct) forced a late vacation. yeah only a couple hundred left w/out power here. there were about 27K outages...not too bad. and everything is supposed to be back up by the end of today i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think this is a 1 in 1,000 year event for most of SNE. Possibly 1 in 10,000. I've been trying to figure out how to do the equivalent of a z-score for non-normal data like ORH October snowfall. If you assume the data is normal, this event is a 15SD event (which is like 1 in a trillion). But of course the data is skewed right (a long right tail if you did a histogram) so it's less than 15SD. But it's probably still a 1 in 1000 given that in 100 years of data the closest to this year's 16" is 7.5" and besides that there are just a few 3-4" type years. For other locations like BDL it's not even possible to create any kind of model distribution simply because it's basically never snowed in October, except for the 12" we saw this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think this is a 1 in 1,000 year event for most of SNE. Possibly 1 in 10,000. I've been trying to figure out how to do the equivalent of a z-score for non-normal data like ORH October snowfall. If you assume the data is normal, this event is a 15SD event (which is like 1 in a trillion). But of course the data is skewed right (a long right tail if you did a histogram) so it's less than 15SD. But it's probably still a 1 in 1000 given that in 100 years of data the closest to this year's 16" is 7.5" and besides that there are just a few 3-4" type years. For other locations like BDL it's not even possible to create any kind of model distribution simply because it's basically never snowed in October, except for the 12" we saw this year. Don't you mean 20.2"? or something? What is the official number there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 <LI> Some past weather events in New England: October 18–19, 1782- A second hurricane moved up the coast and was considered more severe than the previous storm in portions of New England, especially Boston. This was a rare snow hurricane for New England and the storm was likely transforming into an extratropical cyclone as it approached the New England states. October 9,[3] 1804- The Storm of October 1804 crossed New England, cool air was entrained in the circulation, and it became extratropical. The storm brought heavy snow across the Northeast, in some areas up to 2–3 feet, and killed 9 people. This was the second observation of snow from a landfalling hurricane, but not the last. This Category three hurricane was a major one, especially for eastern Massachusetts. October 3, 1841- The October Gale of 1841 became an extratropical storm, and passed off the coast of New England. It led to a storm of snow and sleet in Connecticut, bringing up to 18 inches of snow in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Don't you mean 20.2"? or something? What is the official number there? lol BDL slant stickers does not seem like a 1 in 10,000 year event lol. more like 1 in 100 to 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 lol BDL slant stickers Yeah... Ryan is beside himself on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Don't you mean 20.2"? or something? What is the official number there? You're right.. that's what it shows.. but I thought they got 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 You're right.. that's what it shows.. but I thought they got 12"? I am thinking the 12" is more realistic...but anyway... Those October hurricane/snowicannes are interesting and have been mentioned before (I even started an ignored thread on those) but I can't find much info on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 lol BDL slant stickers does not seem like a 1 in 10,000 year event lol. more like 1 in 100 to 150 The closest in over 100 years of data is 1.7". That pretty much guarantees that it is at least a 1 in 500 year event, probably more like 1 in 1,000+. It does not snow in October at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I wouldn't plan on seeing it again but there is more water content available this time of year I suppose. Perfect storm.. Ten years ago we had Bob and Perfect storm. Now this. Strange how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 oct 11 = may 77? ORH tornado might be more anomalous? '38 hurricane might be slightly less rare? icestorm in 1921? from what I've read it might still be the benchmark over the icetorm in 08, and over a larger area. 1911 heatwave? 4/97, 2/78 , 12/92, blizzard of 1888 are all around a similiar level but this past event is probably even rarer which is mind boggling Because of the timing, this event is probably the most anomalous of our lifetimes, IMO. However, for ice storms I think 1998 takes the prize, and not just because MBY got hammered. There was major to incredible impact for perhaps 75,000 sq.mi. in NNE/NNY, and at least that much area in Quebec. I've not seen a total for folks losing power during that event, but my guess runs to well over 5 million, though probably never all at once. Montreal alone had about 2.5 million in the dark. Has there been another single met event (in N.America) since 1888 in NYC that so completely darkened a city of over a million? Pics I've seen of Springfield, CT in 1979, and ORH lead me to put the last in a class by itself for NE tornados. To my (limited) knowledge, no other twister in this region produced the bare slabs surrounded by disintegrated debris that pics of Uncetena Avenue showed in 1953, nor the major damage to massive stone structures such as those at Assumption College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 <LI> Some past weather events in New England: October 18–19, 1782- A second hurricane moved up the coast and was considered more severe than the previous storm in portions of New England, especially Boston. This was a rare snow hurricane for New England and the storm was likely transforming into an extratropical cyclone as it approached the New England states. October 9,[3] 1804- The Storm of October 1804 crossed New England, cool air was entrained in the circulation, and it became extratropical. The storm brought heavy snow across the Northeast, in some areas up to 2–3 feet, and killed 9 people. This was the second observation of snow from a landfalling hurricane, but not the last. This Category three hurricane was a major one, especially for eastern Massachusetts. October 3, 1841- The October Gale of 1841 became an extratropical storm, and passed off the coast of New England. It led to a storm of snow and sleet in Connecticut, bringing up to 18 inches of snow in some areas. MJO brings up a good point, that just because such a storm has not occurred in the recent age of the NWS and reliable observations does not mean such an event has not occurred more frequently in previous centuries. Remember, different phases of the solar cycle can lead to more favorable large-scale patterns for a particular meteorological event. While the dominant signal has a period of 11 years, there is also power several hundred and several thousand year wavelengths. This forcing could lead to long stretches of repeat occurrences of an event followed by equally long cycles without one. Maybe there were 3 comparable storms from 1750-1850. That said, this was certainly a highly unusual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 MJO brings up a good point, that just because such a storm has not occurred in the recent age of the NWS and reliable observations does not mean such an event has not occurred more frequently in previous centuries. Remember, different phases of the solar cycle can lead to more favorable large-scale patterns for a particular meteorological event. While the dominant signal has a period of 11 years, there is also power several hundred and several thousand year wavelengths. This forcing could lead to long stretches of repeat occurrences of an event followed by equally long cycles without one. Maybe there were 3 comparable storms from 1750-1850. That said, this was certainly a highly unusual event. None of those storms had snow to the coast and as great. I have been looking for a non elevation storm that resembles this , no luck so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Because of the timing, this event is probably the most anomalous of our lifetimes, IMO. However, for ice storms I think 1998 takes the prize, and not just because MBY got hammered. There was major to incredible impact for perhaps 75,000 sq.mi. in NNE/NNY, and at least that much area in Quebec. I've not seen a total for folks losing power during that event, but my guess runs to well over 5 million, though probably never all at once. Montreal alone had about 2.5 million in the dark. Has there been another single met event (in N.America) since 1888 in NYC that so completely darkened a city of over a million? If wikipedia is to be believed, the number without power for the 1998 ice storm exceeded 4 million. It also notes that ~700,000 of Maine's 1.2 million residents were without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Ten years ago we had Bob and Perfect storm. Now this. Strange how that works amazingly...it's been 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'm not so sure I agree with this. Not to be contrary but in 1987 there was big badass coastal storm with lots of cold air form the Berks west... Elevated areas of eastern NY got 20-30" and as much as a foot over much of the Berks... That storm was just a little tucked in too close to the coast else it may have realized white farther east as well. That doesn't diminish the impact of this one, but it is to point out that since that areas is essentially in the same Meteorological domain as us it should at least be considered that 2 of them happened in our life times - unless you are only 23years old that is... Ah I see, but alas I am less than 23 years old I should have gone with google on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think this is a 1 in 1,000 year event for most of SNE. Possibly 1 in 10,000. I've been trying to figure out how to do the equivalent of a z-score for non-normal data like ORH October snowfall. If you assume the data is normal, this event is a 15SD event (which is like 1 in a trillion). But of course the data is skewed right (a long right tail if you did a histogram) so it's less than 15SD. But it's probably still a 1 in 1000 given that in 100 years of data the closest to this year's 16" is 7.5" and besides that there are just a few 3-4" type years. For other locations like BDL it's not even possible to create any kind of model distribution simply because it's basically never snowed in October, except for the 12" we saw this year. I don't think these odds are really close. There have been several references to huge October snows in the interior since before official records began...most notably the 1804 October "snowicane" which dumped 2-3 feet of snow over the interior. There have been some other big ones too in the 1700s and 1600s referenced. My guess is this is about a 1 in 200/300 year type event. In these types of 1 in several hundred year events, you aren't really going to have "close but no cigar" type snow totals...its all or nothing pretty much. A good example is Oct 4, 1987...some spots in the Taconics and then in E NY saw over 2 feet of snow...even Albany got whacked down in the valley. We got nothing here, but if it had been just a bit east, we would have gotten slammed. So the snow total goes down as zero, but it was a "close but no cigar" type setup that isn't reflected in the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I don't think these odds are really close. There have been several references to huge October snows in the interior since before official records began...most notably the 1804 October "snowicane" which dumped 2-3 feet of snow over the interior. There have been some other big ones too in the 1700s and 1600s referenced. My guess is this is about a 1 in 200/300 year type event. In these types of 1 in several hundred year events, you aren't really going to have "close but no cigar" type snow totals...its all or nothing pretty much. 15 inches at CEF in October is probably a one in 500/750 year type event. Hell 15 " at CEF in wintertime is a stretch in a lot of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think the most anomolous aspect of this storm was having the ability to build a giant snow-o-lantern. Took this picture last night trick or treating in Shelburne Falls (my wife next to it to add size perspective). Warm day today--drip, drip. 47.0/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think the most anomolous aspect of this storm was having the ability to build a giant snow-o-lantern. Took this picture last night trick or treating in Shelburne Falls (my wife next to it to add size perspective). Warm day today--drip, drip. 47.0/33 LOL - what the hell is that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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