hm8 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Got down to 21 degrees last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Winter came on time here. Although I would like to see the cold becoming less transient. As far as the SNE region getting a synaptic bruiser..who cares let them enjoy it. This pattern looks to completely buckle right around the 1st of the month. There is a fair amount of cold air building to the north and a decent snow pack forming. The cold air will pour it's way down..like it does every year. Not picking or moneymanning here but it was nice to see my first solid dusting/coating last night. Source: TWC Maps Serious torching this morning.. Based on what the autumn season has been like on the other side of the N. Hemi, my gut tells me we're gonna get rocked once the "flip" happens and its our turn. Just sayin' things are already not that warm, and upper levels are perhaps record cold per some graphics shown by JB and others. Some are already pointing to the end of month system maybe being the "trigger" event. Time shall tell.. From the earlier JB quote: "This may change the rate of cooling feedback in mid/upper levels and US model cant handle that . Result is erratic run to run" "Theory is linked to previous years before blocks formed, 400,600 mb temps stopped rapid cooling and reversed for awhile. Good test coming" PS-While we may not see the sustained west based -NAO, I think a good deal of the country could go into full winter mode sooner than later..IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Happy birthday to Chicago Storm. 5 member(s) have a birthday today Chicago Storm, Wannabehippie (42), timp (19), Matt Bradley (36), egyptianmau Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 wake me when something is about to go down, so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Think the possible storm Tuesday into Wednesday is something to keep an eye on for the eastern part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Think the possible storm Tuesday into Wednesday is something to keep an eye on for the eastern part of the region. Thats impossible considering winter is cancelled this season unless its only rain. NAM/EURO are more north while GFS is more south and east... We shall see in the next day or two. Im not sure if it could suck in enough cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thats impossible considering winter is cancelled this season unless its only rain. NAM/EURO are more north while GFS is more south and We shall see in the next day or two. EURO gives Toronto a nice 3-5 inches. I'll take that and run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 EURO gives Toronto a nice 3-5 inches. I'll take that and run lol I will be happy with 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 850s look too warm for that potential Tuesday/Wednesday system. If anything a burst of WAA snow then a fast changeover to mix then eventually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 850s look too warm for that potential Tuesday/Wednesday system. If anything a burst of WAA snow then a fast changeover to mix then eventually rain. That would defiantly be the main concern (temp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'd be conservative with the pattern change. Models tend to try to change things too quickly so I think we could easily be looking at another 3-4 weeks. That doesn't mean that nothing good can't happen before then (averages are going down and we are heading into late November) but I doubt it is sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Source: TWC Maps Serious torching this morning.. Based on what the autumn season has been like on the other side of the N. Hemi, my gut tells me we're gonna get rocked once the "flip" happens and its our turn. Just sayin' things are already not that warm, and upper levels are perhaps record cold per some graphics shown by JB and others. Some are already pointing to the end of month system maybe being the "trigger" event. Time shall tell.. From the earlier JB quote: "This may change the rate of cooling feedback in mid/upper levels and US model cant handle that . Result is erratic run to run" "Theory is linked to previous years before blocks formed, 400,600 mb temps stopped rapid cooling and reversed for awhile. Good test coming" PS-While we may not see the sustained west based -NAO, I think a good deal of the country could go into full winter mode sooner than later..IMHO Good. Most of us in this region of the country don't want a west based -NAO. Sure it means cold, but it also means coastals mostly from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 EURO gives Toronto a nice 3-5 inches. I'll take that and run lol The latest GFS shows a mega torch for the end of November. It's reached the stage where I'm wondering if we're going for the record. Will this November beat out 2001 and 1975 in Toronto/Ottawa? It might given the end of November 1975 was quite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thats impossible considering winter is cancelled this season unless its only rain. NAM/EURO are more north while GFS is more south and east... We shall see in the next day or two. Im not sure if it could suck in enough cold air The 00z Euro has that system producing snow for Detroit and Toledo on Tuesday/Wednesday (reference: wunderground.com ECMWF maps). The GFS looks pretty different though. Go Blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The 00z Euro has that system producing snow for Detroit and Toledo on Tuesday/Wednesday (reference: wunderground.com ECMWF maps). The GFS looks pretty different though. Go Blue! 12z Euro looks a little too warm for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 First of all, just wanted to say Happy Birthday Joe! Cromartie/Saukville/Palmguy69/Tropical really believes what he is saying. Dude uses common sense and logic, along with an immense background in atmospheric sciences to conclude that Saukville will once again torch all winter 6z GFS says snooze fest for this area... I don't see anything to get excited about. Probably have to wait until Christmas before we get our first 20 inch snowfall. lolz 850s look too warm for that potential Tuesday/Wednesday system. If anything a burst of WAA snow then a fast changeover to mix then eventually rain. Dully noted. 12z Euro looks a little too warm for the most part. Pretty much. The pattern still looks pretty crappy, but if things could get more amplified, we'd have a real system to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 The latest GFS shows a mega torch for the end of November. It's reached the stage where I'm wondering if we're going for the record. Will this November beat out 2001 and 1975 in Toronto/Ottawa? It might given the end of November 1975 was quite chilly. Saw my first flakes yesterday. Did you at least get in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Well if we torch into Dec let's make it a record one. The mid week system is a non story ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Saw my first flakes yesterday. Did you at least get in on that? havent seen a flake yet. record territory now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Wow, some of the ECMWF ensembles really phase that thing. The Michigan crew and canuk need to follow this. Maybe a early sign if this winter can create some biggies? Thanks allot! Now you forced me to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Wow, some of the ECMWF ensembles really phase that thing. The Michigan crew and canuk need to follow this. Maybe a early sign if this winter can create some biggies? The 12z GEM looks like it could be good for a couple inches in N Wisconsin and N Lower Michigan with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Wow, some of the ECMWF ensembles really phase that thing. The Michigan crew and canuk need to follow this. Maybe a early sign if this winter can create some biggies? Not impossible to get a decent storm in an unfavorable pattern, but I can't think of many off the top of my head. Plus the EURO's kind of on its own with the amount of phasing. I'll be watching, but not too intently. btw....you have access to EURO ensembles? You shall be invaluable this winter. Invaluable I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 havent seen a flake yet. record territory now. Could be similar to Nov 2009 if things don't change soon. I'll almost guarantee you though the rest of this winter doesn't resemble 2009-10 in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Could be similar to Nov 2009 if things don't change soon. I'll almost guarantee you though the rest of this winter doesn't resemble 2009-10 in the slightest. Thats a given! Lol. I'm still thinking it will mirror last winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Could be similar to Nov 2009 if things don't change soon. I'll almost guarantee you though the rest of this winter doesn't resemble 2009-10 in the slightest. I've gone all out of my christmas lights this year with 100 ft of real lights so it'll probably be green christmas haha... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I've gone all out of my christmas lights this year with 100 ft of real lights so it'll probably be green christmas haha... :/ It would only be green if you used LEDs. Wink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Well if we torch into Dec let's make it a record one. The mid week system is a non story ATM. Hey Cromartie. Thanks allot! Now you forced me to check. You have ECM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Keep us into the winter spirits...heres from the top of the world live footage of Barrow,AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 It would only be green if you used LEDs. Wink! Tossed those ones in the bin. At the cantire a local german club owner was buying a cart full of real lights. He said he got too many complaints about the LEDs last year so hes going back to classic lights. It's nice this year though, last year only Walmart was selling real lights now everyone has them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 havent seen a flake yet. record territory now. You might get some early next week, not a lot, but some. On a sidenote, Joe D'Aleo is apparently hinting of a change in the pattern come the beginning of December, with the GFs starting to hint at ridging over Alaska at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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