PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well, given the massive tower that has gone up in the last hour on the SW side of the center, the warming will end up having not lasted very long. Yes I'm really liking that new tower... it'll be interesting to see what that does in the next few hours as well as the diurnal maximum tonight. This reminds me of some recent work that Jason Dunion has done looking at the diurnal pulsing of TCs. He's found that in many storms, there tends to be a maximum of cloud top temperatures in the inner core (and a minimum at outer radii) during the day, while during the overnight hours the signs are reversed. There may be some connection to short-term intensity trends as well. In Rina's case, the timing of the warmer inner-core cloud tops is consistent with Dunion's findings, but like you said the intensification has continued. It is possible that much of the intensification occurred prior to the warming of the inner core tops, but without recon data one can only speculate. That would make sense, especially when one considers how many TCs undergo intensification phases overnight. For Rina, the cloud tops started to diminish at 1345Z through 1745Z when the inner core area started to increase (though the cloud tops in the outer regions are still decreasing). It seemed like Rina was still in a quasi-sheared, organizational state when or just before the clouds started to decrease, but a more classic appearance... particularly in the inner core area, didn't start to appear until roughly 1545Z-1645Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I went to sleep early early this morning with an ill defined 40 mph tropical storm that "had not become better organized" and wake up with a hurricane forecast to become a major? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well, not too happy yet, because the track looks complicated. Now that it's much deeper than modeled, the track forecast will probably shift right, away from the Yucatan. Cuba is Communist and it's looking like this can't get to FL in one piece due the upper-air conditions in the Gulf, so.... grrrr. We need that ridge to build in more. You can fly to Cuba from Canada or Mexico and they have all the same hotels and tourist areas of any other Caribbean destination and they don't stamp your passport cos US won't let you back in if they did-- just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This would be Josh-able, if it came close to verigying, no? I like it when the hot towers are visible on visible imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You can fly to Cuba from Canada or Mexico and they have all the same hotels and tourist areas of any other Caribbean destination and they don't stamp your passport cos US won't let you back in if they did-- just saying Oh, I've researched all the ways. You can do it that way, but the problem is that as an American citizen, you're breaking U.S. law by doing that. I'm working on getting an official clearance-- but it's a process! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This would be Josh-able, if it came close to verigying, no? Wow-- yeah. Look at that 10-m wind-- 116 kt! The GFDL is such an absurd tease. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh, hey. So what are your latest thoughts on track? Do you think it'll hit the Yucatan, or will the models/forecasts trend right with the deeper system? Thoughts? I'm leaning towards a close miss or a brush, but it may be close. Regarding intensity, this will probably peak at major hurricane status, but the southerly shear really increases starting early Thursday due to a strengthened upper level anticyclone to the east, so even if it makes it to the Yucatan, it'll probably be in a weakened state. The only exception to this would be if it plowed west or WNW straight into the Yucatan by early Thursday, but that's unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/23673-atlantic-tropical-action-2011-part-iv/page__view__findpost__p__1048475 Barring any deep penetrating LF over C. America or the Yucatan, we should have: A.) An improving environment wrt shear in about 5 days (after trough lifts out) B.) A less than ideal moisture envelope to the N and NW of the system (for awhile), but C.) Prime SST's. Couple the above factors with the climotological favoring of W. Car. systems in late Oct, and that the Euro has become increasingly bullish (along with the aforementioned, favorable global indices) I expect we will have a TC (of average size) threatening the W. coast of FL in 5 days. Intensity, of course is a crap shoot...but W. Car. systems always provide a bit more of a rise in potential. Here we go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm leaning towards a close miss or a brush, but it may be close. Regarding intensity, this will probably peak at major hurricane status, but the southerly shear really increases starting early Thursday due to a strengthened upper level anticyclone to the east, so even if it makes it to the Yucatan, it'll probably be in a weakened state. The only exception to this would be if it plowed west or WNW straight into the Yucatan by early Thursday, but that's unlikely at this point. Yep-- so it seems like you're on the same page with the NHC, which shows what you describe: weakening as it brushes the Yucatan. What would it take for that sexier scenario you were describing? That ridge needs to be a little more assertive, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Josh are you going after this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Josh are you going after this one? I might-- I've been posting about it my "Jonesing" thread so as not to derail this one. But, yeah, thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 just based on climo for this time of year ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Really surprised to see this thing a hurricane today, especially with all that dry air around! I suppose that Rina being in the right entrance region of that jet streak is helping with upper-level divergence. Track is also quite interesting, reminds me of Wilma but lets not get ahead of ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There is a G-IV mission scheduled tomorrow afternoon. With the absolutely horrid job the globals have done regarding Rina the past couple of days, I'd at least like to see that data before zoning in on a future track. Rina may well have a surprise or two left in it. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yep-- so it seems like you're on the same page with the NHC, which shows what you describe: weakening as it brushes the Yucatan. What would it take for that sexier scenario you were describing? That ridge needs to be a little more assertive, I guess? Probably a more amplified trough that digs into the Western U.S. over the next few days, which would also slow down its eastward progression and amplify the downstream ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There is a G-IV mission scheduled tomorrow afternoon. With the absolutely horrid job the globals have done regarding Rina the past couple of days, I'd at least like to see that data before zoning in on a future track. Rina may well have a surprise or two left in it. We will see. Exactly throw everything out and start fresh tomorrow. Then start talking about sheer and track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Heat potential won't be the issue. Dry air and unfavorable shear may be. I seem to recall an interesting discussion about the affects of dry air in the down shear direction, but I don't want to mis-state that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There is a G-IV mission scheduled tomorrow afternoon. With the absolutely horrid job the globals have done regarding Rina the past couple of days, I'd at least like to see that data before zoning in on a future track. Rina may well have a surprise or two left in it. We will see. With all else being equal (as to prior thinking) a substantially stronger storm should result either in a storm meandering in the W/ Car. for a few days or a more direct northward movement, resulting in less interaction with the Yucatan landmass. The way the core exploded this morning, leads me to believe that we will continue to witness rapid intensification during the next 12-18 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There is a G-IV mission scheduled tomorrow afternoon. With the absolutely horrid job the globals have done regarding Rina the past couple of days, I'd at least like to see that data before zoning in on a future track. Rina may well have a surprise or two left in it. We will see. Agreed. Irene's track was solidifed by the G-IV and weather balloon data. However, those winds in the Gulf are a buzzsaw waiting to happen...and they don't look like they're going to relax. I can't envision a scenario where Rina would enter the Gulf and not be shredded. Can anyone else see a scenario where that wouldn't happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 At this point it appears very unlikely that Rina is going to move inland over central America, I suspect we'll see a NNW movement for the next 48 hours, with a peak intensity of 130 knots, followed by a rapid move to the NNE and NE once to the west of Isla Jovenes, followed by rapid weakening through the FL straits/ eastern Gulf to somewhere around Everglades City as a Cat 1 and then a very rapid entrainment up the East Coast. Unfortunately, I don't see this as a legitimate chase, but I am an old Antarctic balloon man and have been proven wrong on many occasions, having forecast from OKX for 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 241945 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 24/19:27:40Z B. 17 deg 08 min N 083 deg 02 min W C. 850 mb 1329 m D. 60 kt E. 010 deg 10 nm F. 093 deg 67 kt G. 010 deg 10 nm H. EXTRAP 989 mb I. 15 C / 1521 m J. 21 C / 1520 m K. 15 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. E32/20/16 N. 12345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 14 MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 17:37:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The way the core exploded this morning, leads me to believe that we will continue to witness rapid intensification during the next 12-18 hours.... Not to be pedantic but I'm not sure we've witnessed RI so far - I suspect that the NHC intensity was drastically underestimated at 5AM and 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not to be pedantic but I'm not sure we've witnessed RI so far - I suspect that the NHC intensity was drastically underestimated at 5AM and 11AM. I agree with this as well. What we have seen is a cyclone becoming vertically stacked and responding at the right time with RECON to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not to be pedantic but I'm not sure we've witnessed RI so far - I suspect that the NHC intensity was drastically underestimated at 5AM and 11AM. The most commonly used definition of rapid intensification in the literature is the 30 kt/24 hour threshold, found to be the 95th percentile of intensity changes by Kaplan and Demaria (2003). Since Rina was a 30 kt TD 24 hours ago, this would count as RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The most commonly used definition of rapid intensification in the literature is the 30 kt/24 hour threshold, found to be the 95th percentile of intensity changes by Kaplan and Demaria (2003). Since Rina was a 30 kt TD 24 hours ago, this would count as RI. This. Not to mention the exceptional improvement in organization over the last 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not to be pedantic but I'm not sure we've witnessed RI so far - I suspect that the NHC intensity was drastically underestimated at 5AM and 11AM. From the IR presentation at 06z until now, I'd disagree. And NHC would concur: SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED. Of course we can quibble on the true definition of "RI" but my point was that based on the core having little competition from other convective "blobs"/elements, and a nice spiral nature to the developing bands, we will continue "robust" strengthening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=2&map=None&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&numframes=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 i saw this on wunderground.. im sure the tropicnerds already know but whateva Did you know that... Mitch officially became a hurricane on this date in 1998 south of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. A rapid intensificantion period followed where the storm's central pressure dropped 52 mb to 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Throwing together a quick track thought.....based purely on model consensus, and adjustments for the current ongoings wrt intensification: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 My thoughts on Hurricane Rina in brief video update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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