MJW155 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wilma was the last real "issue" for sfl. It is amazing how fast time flies away. I wouldn't mind a Wilma track. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Interestingly, fwiw, the 0Z GFS has Ms. Rina still stuck in the W. Caribbean all the way at the174 hour point and then inching westward (never got north enough to get caught in the trough). Edit: Josh wil like this. It is a pretty formidable storm when it hits the Yucatan at ~hour 204 while moving westward. Edit 2: then heads into the Bay of Campeche and buries itself back into MX moving SW and commits suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I believe this is the first time we've seen convection on that side of the storm relative to the shear vector. It may be an indication that the shear has decreased, or more likely that the vortex has become resilient to the shear. A lot of modeling studies show somewhat similar behavior, with the vortex taking some time until it becomes resilient to the shear, after which it can resume intensifying. Although the SHIPS has the shear in the moderate 10-20 kt range over the next few days, I don't think that's enough to prevent significant intensification. Interesting. Even though you were mean to Jova (), I'm still curious what you think Re: future track and intensity of Rina. Do you foresee a landfall on the Yucatan or in Belize? And, if so, how strong? Edit: Josh wil like this. It is a pretty formidable storm when it hits the Yucatan at ~hour 204 while moving westward. Indeed. Yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 nice microwave... definitely a marked improvement in organization. Starting to get that 10 degree logarithmic spiral going. Not that I've measured the pitch to see if its 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 P.S. I disagree with the thread title. It doesn't look that bad-- and, in fact, for a 2011 NATL cyclone, it looks fairly attractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 P.S. I disagree with the thread title. It doesn't look that bad-- and, in fact, for a 2011 NATL cyclone, it looks fairly attractive. I agree. Let's hope Rina doesn't follow the general trend of other storms this year. (calamity loops will deliver if it looks nice ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I agree. Let's hope Rina doesn't follow the general trend of other storms this year. (calamity loops will deliver if it looks nice ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The outflow is looking really awesome to the N and W. If that shear lets up a bit, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 These models strongly suggest a BZ landfall midweek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 11 PM disc. suggests two separate shortwaves digging into the GoM will create weaknesses in the ridge and allow Rina to move north somewhat before reaching Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 11 PM disc. suggests two separate shortwaves digging into the GoM will create weaknesses in the ridge and allow Rina to move north somewhat before reaching Belize. Oh, yeah-- I read it, and I definitely wasn't forecasting BZ. (Forecasting ain't my thing!) I just think it's interesting that so many of the models show that solution. (The Discussion hits upon why the GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS are showing the W motion-- because they're modeling a shallower system.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'd like something to watch, since the fall svr season has been rather lackluster so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ironically the same jet the Zach was mentioning last night that he claimed would prevent much development of Rina will likely help to enhance outflow for the next 24-48 hours (acting as an outflow channel) as the system slowly moves to the northwest. You can already see how impressive the outflow has become on the storms northwestern flank. I agree with Jorge that 65 knots is likely on the low side, and its becoming increasingly likely we could be dealing with a formidable hurricane similar to what the model projections were back on Friday. The 00z GFS finally got off the short bus and is now forecasting a formidable cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean, although its track making several loops in the Western Caribbean is rather amusing. I'm still thinking the intensity in the modeling is underdone and a stronger Rina could be far enough north to be picked up by the next strong upper level trough in about 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ironically the same jet the Zach was mentioning last night that he claimed would prevent much development of Rina will likely help to enhance outflow for the next 24-48 hours (acting as an outflow channel) as the system slowly moves to the northwest. You can already see how impressive the outflow has become on the storms northwestern flank. I agree with Jorge that 65 knots is likely on the low side, and its becoming increasingly likely we could be dealing with a formidable hurricane similar to what the model projections were back on Friday. The 00z GFS finally got off the short bus and is now forecasting a formidable cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean, although its track making several loops in the Western Caribbean is rather amusing. I'm still thinking the intensity in the modeling is underdone and a stronger Rina could be far enough north to be picked up by the next strong upper level trough in about 4-5 days. Gotcha. So what do you think Re: track? Likelihood of a Yucatan landfall-- or significant FL impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Hmmm. Where'd Phil go? Is he ducking these pointed questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Hmmm. Where'd Phil go? Is he ducking these pointed questions? Sorry... The reason why I'm up so late is because I'm also working on a few assignments at the same time, and I'm giving myself short breaks to checkup on the storm. There is no way Rina will be able to survive intact into FL thanks to the strong upper level jet thats pretty much parked in place, so the best chance of a significant landfall will have to be the Yucatan, with an outside chance of a Cuba Impact (a la Paula last year). As for where I think its gonna go. I still think the NHC track might be a touch too far south. However the track is strongly dependent on how strong Rina gets. If Rina gets into the cat 2 range or higher, I think there is a distinct possibility that Rina might miss the Yucatan Peninsula completely. I know, probably not what you want to hear, but the ridge overhead of the system is simply not strong enough to keep additional poleward movement at bay. The ridge will then also start to shift further west over the Greater Antilles, which will only aid further northward movement. I wasn't joking last night when I said it was Paula deja vu... the future track in my mind looks rather similar at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Sorry... The reason why I'm up so late is because I'm also working on a few assignments at the same time, and I'm giving myself short breaks to checkup on the storm. There is no way Rina will be able to survive intact into FL thanks to the strong upper level jet thats pretty much parked in place, so the best chance of a significant landfall will have to be the Yucatan, with an outside chance of a Cuba Impact (a la Paula last year). As for where I think its gonna go. I still think the NHC track might be a touch too far south. However the track is strongly dependent on how strong Rina gets. If Rina gets into the cat 2 range or higher, I think there is a distinct possibility that Rina might miss the Yucatan Peninsula completely. I know, probably not what you want to hear, but the ridge overhead of the system is simply not strong enough to keep additional poleward movement at bay. The ridge will then also start to shift further west over the Greater Antilles, which will only aid further northward movement. I wasn't joking last night when I said it was Paula deja vu... the future track in my mind looks rather similar at this point in time. OK, gotcha. Makes sense-- thanks. P.S. Good luck with the assignments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Rina is looking better this morning as we get the first visible images. Still some work to do on the SE flank, but overall it appears we have a strengthening cyclone in the NW Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Rina is looking better this morning as we get the first visible images. Still some work to do on the SE flank, but overall it appears we have a strengthening cyclone in the NW Caribbean... I think 35kts is a bit low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yes, outflow in the SE flank is well restricted, but there's strong convection over the center now, featuring a slightly tilted CDO pattern... it's probably steadily strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think 35kts is a bit low right now. 12Z ships was initialized with 40kt, so should be going with that for the 11am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 P.S. I disagree with the thread title. It doesn't look that bad-- and, in fact, for a 2011 NATL cyclone, it looks fairly attractive. I agree. Let's hope Rina doesn't follow the general trend of other storms this year. (calamity loops will deliver if it looks nice ) You were probably fooled by the good side of the storm, but it was the perfect definition of two face. An image is worth a thousand words... Red dot is the center at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You were probably fooled by the good side of the storm, but it was the perfect definition of two face. An image is worth a thousand words... Red dot is the center at the time. Wasn't fooled. I don't think the cyclone was quite that lopsided at the time. The 0300Z position was 16.4N 82.2W, and it would have moved even further NNW by 0615Z (the time of this image)-- so I don't think that red dot is correctly placed. Also, like I said, I was grading this on a curve for 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow... Rina looks much better now as compared to last night. I'd say hurricane strength is certainly not out of the woods... with a lot depending on how far down the jet gets. One thing to keep in mind is how Rina is positioned with respect to the jet could result in some amazing upper level outflow before the shear sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wasn't fooled. I don't think the cyclone was quite that lopsided at the time. The 0300Z position was 16.4N 82.2W, and it would have moved even further NNW by 0615Z (the time of this image)-- so I don't think that red dot is correctly placed. Also, like I said, I was grading this on a curve for 2012. That's the 0z position, my mistake...but it's still lopsided, it was pretty lopsided by the time I made the title, very close to what it's shown in that image... actually convection has been nearly stationary, while the LLC has creeped NNW AT 6z position was 16.5N 82.2W... still outside most of the convection (near the green edge of convection)... and the title was edited around 2z... so it was definitely very lopsided. Edit: Changed the image in my previous post to reflect the 6z position. It definitely was 2 face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looking a bit more symmetric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looking a bit more symmetric. Nice loop! It clearly shows how the deep convection has been wrapping to the south and over the center. Definitely a good evolution with promising future ahead of it. Little doubt on my mind we'll have a hurricane out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice loop! It clearly shows how the deep convection has been wrapping to the south and over the center. Definitely a good evolution with promising future ahead of it. Little doubt on my mind we'll have a hurricane out of it Looking much better over the last 12 hours. Raw T number is up to 4.3, with the adjusted T number at 1515Z now supporting a 45-50 kt TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 11AM Advisory track has Rina bouncing off the Yucatan like a pinball to the NE and losing hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z GFS still showing Rina missing the trough and doing an anticyclonic loop heading for the BZ/MX border as a strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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