rosemont/old town Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Looks like b/w 21z and 0z is best timeframe d.c. area. SPC SREF tries to go fairly nuts over E NC and SE VA 18z-21z. I have a terribly bad newbie question but in eastern standard time 21 z to 0z would be 4PM to 7PM? Just trying to put all this good information into something my brain understands. Thanks for not internet yelling at me for such an infantile question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Actually in the last 10 min. from my last post there is some break in the cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Pretty darn cloudy here. Screw severe wx, I want to start chasing 280hr+ snowstorms shhhhhhhhhhhh don't give them any ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I have a terribly bad newbie question but in eastern standard time 21 z to 0z would be 4PM to 7PM? Just trying to put all this good information into something my brain understands. Thanks for not internet yelling at me for such an infantile question. 5-8 until the time change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Pretty darn cloudy here. Screw severe wx, I want to start chasing 280hr+ snowstorms Going from unrealistic expecation to unrealistic expectation. If nothing else, we're pretty consistent here in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 SPC in meh mode THE SECONDARY POTENTIAL THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN GA ROTATES INTO NC/VA. ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS INVOLVES THE WEDGE FRONT THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SCOURED AWAY EXCEPT FOR EASTERN VA/NC. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO NORTHEAST VA WHERE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. EVEN IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY OCCUR AND THE RESULTANT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 SPC in meh mode They can't back-pedal fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 SPC in meh mode THE SECONDARY POTENTIAL THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN GA ROTATES INTO NC/VA. ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS INVOLVES THE WEDGE FRONT THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SCOURED AWAY EXCEPT FOR EASTERN VA/NC. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO NORTHEAST VA WHERE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. EVEN IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY OCCUR AND THE RESULTANT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS SCENARIO. We are cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 winter omen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 They can't back-pedal fast enough. im not sure what made them pull the 5% up so far northwest. sref was never pumping out more than like 500 cape in this area and north. tho i would not necessarily call it a bust either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 winter omen? Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 At least any convection that does fire could bring some down some gusty winds. Just pretend the leaves are snowflakes and it will be an orange blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 shhhhhhhhhhhh don't give them any ideas winter omen? Definitely. Haterz gon' hate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 At least any convection that does fire could bring some down some gusty winds. Just pretend the leaves are snowflakes and it will be an orange blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 still no cape anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Cloud ceilings have actually been lowering at all 3 major airports over the last couple hours. That wedge doesn't intend to go quietly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 You look at the visible color on the satellite for the E CONUS and all the activity is basically over the gulfstream...while the shift to the east is obviously troublesome...would love to see a southern stream this active in 60 days. Question is, will anything ever phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 still no cape anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 should have had better instability surging into nc at this pt .. doesnt seem to be happening. looks like this one might be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Might as well merge this thread into the regular Obs thread. Not much severe will be seen here. Still at .33 for the day and 59 degrees with a steady mist falling since late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Still would not be shocked of some thunder sliding through early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 flunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 LWX County warning forecast area is in a cad situation being located between the two areas of low pressure. The warm front is still across central South Carolina. With the strong wedge in place...do think it will make it more difficult for the warm front to push through the region until after dark. If the warm front stays south of the County warning forecast area until after sunset...thunderstorm development will be slow to occur. Think this is the most likely situation. If the warm front does northward...and breaks in the clouds allow heating...thunderstorm development will be more likely. If thunderstorms develop...they will have the potential to become severe. Will be a Low Cape/high shear environment. Any severe thunderstorms that develop will have the capability of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 we be see texted pity 2% 95 and SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 A weak line forming just east of Charlottesville... maybe something to watch. LWX still sees a possible severe storm or two: A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The marine/ocean air giveith in summer, the marine/ocean air taketh anytime else.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Misting up here. Although looking at radar looks like we may get a decent soaking from the line in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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