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October 19 Severe Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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Updated morning AFD from LWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1054 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL

IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE

REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW VIRGINIA AND A SECOND

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SE VA. NICE

COLD WEDGE NOTED IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO

MODERATE RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

HOWEVER...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT WEDGE TO BEGIN ERODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS

THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW

FOR MINIMAL HEATING. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AT THE

SURFACE...WITH CAPE VALUES BLO 1000J/KG. HOWEVER SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS REMAIN

IMPRESSIVE. WARMING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. IF WE

CAN GET CONVECTION TO ROOT AT THE SURFACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE

THE CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE

WIND DAMAGE...BUT WITH GOOD SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE

POSSIBLE.

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