ski MRG Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 50/48, cloudy, drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Euro ensembles really show no end to the above normal pattern after this cold shot coming up. At least the 12z ensemble mean. It looked like there might be a shot at a transient airmass that is slightly cooler than the surrounding pattern around mid-month, but certainly nothing I'd consider cold. It looks like we will end up with a very warm October on the means unless we see a huge cooldown in the final 7-10 days of the month as we get closer to it. But as of now, there is nothing in the larger scale pattern that hints at that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I'm reading Moneyball attm I think Will wrote it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Euro ensembles really show no end to the above normal pattern after this cold shot coming up. At least the 12z ensemble mean. It looked like there might be a shot at a transient airmass that is slightly cooler than the surrounding pattern around mid-month, but certainly nothing I'd consider cold. It looks like we will end up with a very warm October on the means unless we see a huge cooldown in the final 7-10 days of the month as we get closer to it. But as of now, there is nothing in the larger scale pattern that hints at that happening. I agree. I originally thought 0.7 to 1.5 or so above normal, but that may be too cool. I just hope we have the door shut on the warmth rather abruptly later in November. I wonder if our biggest concern this winter is more with the Bering Sea pattern...and not necessarily the NAO. By no means am I suggesting anything...just talking about the pattern, but I think that area is the spot to watch going forward. Hopefully we begin to see ridging develop in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I'm reading Moneyball attm I think Will wrote it LOL, I want to see that movie. I've heard it's pretty good...even from people who are not baseball fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I agree. I originally thought 0.7 to 1.5 or so above normal, but that may be too cool. I just hope we have the door shut on the warmth rather abruptly later in November. I wonder if our biggest concern this winter is more with the Bering Sea pattern...and not necessarily the NAO. By no means am I suggesting anything...just talking about the pattern, but I think that area is the spot to watch going forward. Hopefully we begin to see ridging develop in that area. Yeah I'm not too concerned right now. Its not terribly uncommon to see the October pattern flip around up there. 1995 and 2007 both had awful bering sea patterns but then flipped shortly after. I'm sure there's other years further back too but those were just off the top of my head. It can be a pain to wait for the first real shots of arctic air to come down in those patterns, but usually its worth the wait as long as you flip the pattern...it will then allow stuff to flood right down. But I think there is little doubt now that this month will come in heavily positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Yeah I'm not too concerned right now. Its not terribly uncommon to see the October pattern flip around up there. 1995 and 2007 both had awful bering sea patterns but then flipped shortly after. I'm sure there's other years further back too but those were just off the top of my head. It can be a pain to wait for the first real shots of arctic air to come down in those patterns, but usually its worth the wait as long as you flip the pattern...it will then allow stuff to flood right down. But I think there is little doubt now that this month will come in heavily positive. I remember '95. We had to wait until the snow event later in the month and it was off to the races. I'm not worried in the least bit, but I'm going to keep an eye on that area now and then. You know by late month if we continue with this warmth, there will be some claiming this winter will torch..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I remember '95. We had to wait until the snow event later in the month and it was off to the races. I'm not worried in the least bit, but I'm going to keep an eye on that area now and then. You know by late month if we continue with this warmth, there will be some claiming this winter will torch..lol. We had a snow event in Oct '95? I don't remember anything until about 11/11 or so. But yeah, if the month doesn't come in cold, its certainly not the end of the world...but you want to start maybe seeing some hints of the Aleutian ridge building up on the ensembles at the end of the month...meaning toward mid-November on those longer range ensembles. We'll have to see how well snow cover is doing by the end of the month too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 We had a snow event in Oct '95? I don't remember anything until about 11/11 or so. But yeah, if the month doesn't come in cold, its certainly not the end of the world...but you want to start maybe seeing some hints of the Aleutian ridge building up on the ensembles at the end of the month...meaning toward mid-November on those longer range ensembles. We'll have to see how well snow cover is doing by the end of the month too. Oh I meant November '95. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Yeah I'm not too concerned right now. Its not terribly uncommon to see the October pattern flip around up there. 1995 and 2007 both had awful bering sea patterns but then flipped shortly after. I'm sure there's other years further back too but those were just off the top of my head. It can be a pain to wait for the first real shots of arctic air to come down in those patterns, but usually its worth the wait as long as you flip the pattern...it will then allow stuff to flood right down. But I think there is little doubt now that this month will come in heavily positive. So what you're saying in a nut shell is that this winter is going to be like 95-96 (jk obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 So what you're saying in a nut shell is that this winter is going to be like 95-96 (jk obviously) I wish, but much stronger Nina and different N PAC...so unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Enjoy the coming cool..it's all we've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 47F/45 Nice start As CT Torch says, enjoy it while we got it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 pics ( 10/4/11 Kevin) Looks about right--a lot of disapointed leaf-peepers this weekend. I like the freeze warning--I wonder if I drop below 40. lol Pete, Chris, Scoob, Dave will all be getting some good cooling the next few nighits.. currently a balmy 51 with a nice breeze. Bring on the cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Euro is a disaster for the marathon on the 15th..Muggy,humid south flow with showers/storms..Please please change that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 At least the euro ensembles is showing sings of NPAC ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Euro is a disaster for the marathon on the 15th..Muggy,humid south flow with showers/storms..Please please change that AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 At least its cold and snowy somewhere.... http://www.ktvu.com/news/29385123/detail.html Then again MRG has probably been experiencing these conditions for weeks up in GC...I mean why wouldn't he - his climo is the same as the Sierra's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Euro is a disaster for the marathon on the 15th..Muggy,humid south flow with showers/storms..Please please change that Ensembles bring the front through Friday so it would be cooler/drier for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 mini torch today on downsloping west winds in favored locations, cool down is extremely brief, barely two days. Warm up looks insane, endless summer returns, the torch of our lives. Looks like a fantastic beach weekend especially Sunday Monday, some cornhole, horseshoes, a bbq, some cool watermelon.........good times good times! Circle of Sizzle~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Cobalt blue skies 60 degrees west winds very light dont forget to wear sunscreen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 mini torch today on downsloping west winds in favored locations, cool down is extremely brief, barely two days. Warm up looks insane, endless summer returns, the torch of our lives. Looks like a fantastic beach weekend especially Sunday Monday, some cornhole, horseshoes, a bbq, some cool watermelon.........good times good times! Circle of Sizzle~ Seasonable today for most except sw ct where winter will torch, but tomorrow and Friday will be cool for sure. However, torch starts Saturday with record highs in some areas...esp at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 At least the euro ensembles is showing sings of NPAC ridging. The 06z GFS is showing some signs of that too wayy out there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 The 06z GFS is showing some signs of that too wayy out there lol. Don't be shocked if this is a classic case of models rushing things. We see this every year in November when Kevin claims winter is coming, and it's delayed by 3-4 weeks. I almost guarantee that happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 BTW, mini ocean effect band near Chatham right now. Cold air aloft is working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 52/50. Was clear at 7am when I went out. Partly cloudy now. Looking forward to a freeze tonight to finish off the mosquitoes etc for the year. Baby Ben got to see his first doe and fawns this morning crossing the road although I think he was more fascinated by the dog's reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 mini torch today on downsloping west winds in favored locations, cool down is extremely brief, barely two days. Warm up looks insane, endless summer returns, the torch of our lives. Looks like a fantastic beach weekend especially Sunday Monday, some cornhole, horseshoes, a bbq, some cool watermelon.........good times good times! Circle of Sizzle~ Switch hitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Switch hitter? im sure you play that game well. Off to work. bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Not gonna lie, we could be entering a very favorable pattern to bring a hurricane up the east coast by around day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Not gonna lie, we could be entering a very favorable pattern to bring a hurricane up the east coast by around day 7 Enter snowNH in 3.........2.........1....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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