Jebman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Coast is gonna get drowned I-95 gets off easy this storm We need a break We got families lost their homes to creek flash flooding right here in Woodbridge - we don't need no more heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 00z NAM 84 hr total rainfall 00z GFS 84 hr total rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Day 1 OTLK 0600 from SPC ..LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATELY STRONG /30-40+ KTS AT 850 MB/ TODAY IN A BELT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 That NAM/GFS output is horrific. Just the thought of 3 to 6 more inches of rain on top of fairly saturated antecedent hydrology is frightening. If that verifies............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 HPC (at least from last night) show totals a lot lower than NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Lightning from the cell south of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 6z runs still keep us in decent precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Serious cutoff on the models to the West...I may be able to picnic while you guys are swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Pretty awesome wind profiles in SE VA (and eastern NC)... could be some action down there today if the GFS/WRF CAPE of around 1000 J/kg can verify. Lapse rates and clouds keeping things a bit suppressed otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Radar sure looks like this first batch of big moisture is a lot further West than what the models are saying....who knows...I know in winter here on West gets fringed on the models all of the time only to end up with as much if not more moisture as the easties do....looks wet anyway for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Leesburg, sure does look like the firehose is trying to set up further west than modeled, at least with this initial slug of rain. Wet west of Richmond and back to their west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I know we are nice and green out here again, and I don't want to have to deal with a flooded basement, but geez, how many more times are these storms going to keep missing us to the east? I've lost count as to how many times consecutively this has happened. It's just mind-boggling. I can only hope that one of these systems - hopefully in the winter - will finally have us in its cross-hairs. For those in the I-95 corridor, I sincerely hope that you suffer no more flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Really heavy rain/storms W or RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Not expecting much today, but monitoring the areas S+E of DC for any tornadic potential (which is low): ...CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE NNEWD TODAY WITHIN DEEP-MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0+ INCHES. HERE TOO...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...RESULTING IN VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Not expecting much today, but monitoring the areas S+E of DC for any tornadic potential (which is low): ...CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE NNEWD TODAY WITHIN DEEP-MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0+ INCHES. HERE TOO...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...RESULTING IN VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. Shadow is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The 9z ARW from LWX is nasty just east of DC with the second batch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Shadow is back It never left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 12z NAM 42 hrs total rainfall.. looks like around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 500-1000+ J/kg CAPE in most of the region E of the Apps. now... if it doesn't trigger storms it will certainly help the heavy rains. Last two runs of RUC improving the parameters in SE VA (2000+ CAPE with improves lapse rates), with the 12z NAM looking better than the 06z WRT severe. 12z NAM also shows a nice band of heavy precip much like the LWX's high res. picture above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 500-1000+ J/kg CAPE in most of the region E of the Apps. now... if it doesn't trigger storms it will certainly help the heavy rains. Last two runs of RUC improving the parameters in SE VA (2000+ CAPE with improves lapse rates), with the 12z NAM looking better than the 06z WRT severe. 12z NAM also shows a nice band of heavy precip much like the LWX's high res. picture above. Rush hour FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 rain train is setting up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 rain train is setting up nicely Flooding galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Radar sure looks like this first batch of big moisture is a lot further West than what the models are saying....who knows...I know in winter here on West gets fringed on the models all of the time only to end up with as much if not more moisture as the easties do....looks wet anyway for a bit. Can't be mitchnick 10-11 we suck at moisture rule in effect. BTW, my power is out. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Flooding galore We just replaced the flooring in our basement. Please, no more flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Make it stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Can't be mitchnick 10-11 we suck at moisture rule in effect. BTW, my power is out. Wtf PEPCO just wants you to suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Are we looking at more of a steady rain event for Saturday or scattered storms with maybe some sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 rain train is setting up nicely Yep and it's pouring here. Looks like more flooding for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 This rain makes me not want to go out for lunch. Severely lacking on food here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Well, that is a horrible way to start a long duration rain event on already saturated ground. The cell that just moved thru Clarksburg dropped 0.91" in 16 minutes. Small streams immediately rose to bankfull and are just now receeding 25 minutes later. I think it's going to be a long day for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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