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Lee's Remnants and the Mid-Atlantic


WxUSAF

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NWS State College removed their FFW. Seems a bit premature.

Must be because the main part of next round is several periods off? Can't see how they would not think flooding is an issue given HPC.

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18z gfs is ridiculous with rain totals...problem is it is already too wet with its totals from 2- now...i say cut HPC totals in half....still a pretty hefty event

you've got to be lovin' it

congrats

historic, OK, decent winter coming

heavy AUG-SEPT+ Rains rarely precede lousy winters

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We got heavy rain last sept.

AUG & SEPT+

AUG was already at or above 10"

SEPT will get a great start this week; that's what I meant

frankly, 99/00 is looking more possible, but for the westerly QBO that winter

heck, with an -QBO this year, if my theory has any merit (even a little), we'll do OK and definitely AN snows

the only fear with 00/99 was that our snows were crammed into a few weeks with the 1/25 fluke obviously making the totals that winter a bit misleading, but I'll take my chances with it

the Aug Euro monthlies were actually decent looking for DEC & JAN

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AUG & SEPT+

AUG was already at or above 10"

SEPT will get a great start this week; that's what I meant

frankly, 99/00 is looking more possible, but for the westerly QBO that winter

heck, with an -QBO this year, if my theory has any merit (even a little), we'll do OK and definitely AN snows

the only fear with 00/99 was that our snows were crammed into a few weeks with the 1/25 fluke obviously making the totals that winter a bit misleading, but I'll take my chances with it

the Aug Euro monthlies were actually decent looking for DEC & JAN

Cool. We haven't had as wet an Aug as we did in a looong time. I don't believe rain now tells us anything about winter but I barely believe in long range forecasting to begin with.

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964 

WGUS51 KLWX 060204

FFWLWX

MDC027-031-060600-

/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0126.110906T0204Z-110906T0600Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1004 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT

* AT 952 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FROM A    

THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN

  INCLUDE ASPEN HILL...BETHESDA...BOYDS...CHEVY CHASE...DAMASCUS...

  GAITHERSBURG...GERMANTOWN...MONTGOMERY VILLAGE...NORTH POTOMAC...

  OLNEY...POTOMAC AND ROCKVILLE.

FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...

  BRIGHTON DAM ROAD AT HAWLINGS RIVER...

  GOLDMINE ROAD AT CHANDLEE MILL ROAD...

  LOG HOUSE ROAD AT MAGRUDER BRANCH...

  ELTON FARM ROAD AND HOWARD CHAPEL ROAD...

  CONNECTICUT AVENUE JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITOL BELTWAY...

  VIERS MILL ROAD JUST SOUTH OF TWINBROOK PARKWAY...  

  GEORGIA AVENUE AT BROOKEVILLE ROAD...

  WOODFIELD ROAD AT CHURCHILL DOWNS ROAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ARE 

POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE

DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE

UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS

SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 7746 3932 7715 3920 7698 3901 7704

      3895 7711

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