centralmass Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like it shifted back west a bit: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al092011/track_early/aal09_2011082612_track_early.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I never understood why people get all excited for what could be impending doom and disaster for them. "Yay, the roof's going to blow off my house!!" That's ok you don't have to undertand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z hurricane models west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Shocked to see IRene weaken further, hopefully that trend continues today, and Irene is nothing more than a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches our are, either way prepared for the worst, and hoping for the best. Track shifting east and disorganized storm, two big positives to wake up to this morning! I know I really hope this weakens to a depreession to tell you the truth.. Roll eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This seems reasonable. It could end up being primarily a nasty coastal flooding event - with nor'easter-type impacts inland. Although as a forecaster I wouldn't want to downplay anything this early in the game. I think this is wrong..but whatever 60mph gusts...2 to 6 ft surge? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Major destruction for us Yea, that huge wind field and the jet streak as it approaches, plus forward speed, do not know what Litchfield is smoking, just because it is not a 3 in NC means NADA to us, in fact we might get some enhancement and the tidal surge destructive power is rather bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z hurricane models west Time to book something on CT coast instead of Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LedZep Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is what we live for dude..Just crank up some Stairway to Haven..fire up a spliff..and relax Done, and done. No different than bungee jumping or riding a rollercoaster, except there's no choice in the matter but to get excited and anxious. Are you apathetic and ho-hum about a hurricane landfall? Why come here? I was a member with the previous board, I love weather, just making an observation that I noticed quite a bit lately. Cryin won't do ya no good http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlPjlFQQ3fs&feature=fvst That's beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Clipped from the PHL discussion. An interesting feature which is what may make this worse than some of the prior storms. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ASTRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO ITAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE ISWITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THISSCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOWCHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE HURRICANE GAINESLATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND INTERACTIONS, PERHAPSTHIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY INSISTS THIS SYSTEMREMAINS A POWERFUL ONE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Clipped from the PHL discussion. An interesting feature which is what may make this worse than some of the prior storms. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ASTRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO ITAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE ISWITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THISSCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOWCHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE HURRICANE GAINESLATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND INTERACTIONS, PERHAPSTHIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY INSISTS THIS SYSTEMREMAINS A POWERFUL ONE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Sounds like the "perfect storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Local radio station playing hurricane-inspired music this morning. Iron Maiden's "Run to the Hills" is the current selection. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Time to book something on CT coast instead of Cape? You gotta love the 50 mile windshield wiping over sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This all seems so surreal...I can't believe this is happening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Time to book something on CT coast instead of Cape? If I could pick a place to be it would be Old Saybrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If I could pick a place to be it would be Old Saybrook For landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 my home on niantic bay should be a fun ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z hurricane models west are you looking at raleigh's page? Those are from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think this is wrong..but whatever 60mph gusts...2 to 6 ft surge? lol High tide in western LIS is 11:15 Sunday morning. I'm worried about a speed up. If winds peak at noon that's trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 are you looking at raleigh's page? Those are from yesterday. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No hmm that's pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's the pink? Hurricane Watches along the coast and TS Watches inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 hmm that's pretty far west. Even the correct HWFI went west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a couple of questions about tornadoes being spawned by hurricanes: which quadrant is the most likely to see this, and do the tornadoes tend to be on the small size, or larger? I'm in the Portland ME area, and the NE quadrant looks like it has my name written on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Local radio station playing hurricane-inspired music this morning. Iron Maiden's "Run to the Hills" is the current selection. lol Speaking of local coverage, my sense is that the overall attitude around here continues to be "meh." It's no exaggeration to say that I've seen more hype over an impending snowstorm than about Irene. I think part of it is that so much national attention has focused on NYC, plus the sense people here have that "these things always fall apart by the time they get up here." People are definitely talking about it, but there seems to be an overall dismissiveness. If the west trends continue I could see this being nothing too special, but I'm a little surprised at the general mindset. On a similar note, the early-AM disco from GYX certainly was anemic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 High tide in western LIS is 11:15 Sunday morning. I'm worried about a speed up. If winds peak at noon that's trouble. Probably will disagree with me but here goes. The tide at the end of the sound is full around 8 ish, the wind will be easterly, or SE at that time, this will force the tide into the sound, as such the formerly lower tide will increase. Based on prior storm and the surge potential there might not be a real low tide as forecasted but rather a lower tide, bad situation with that expansive wind field and current progs JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z hurricane models west This is turning into a dream come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Speaking of local coverage, my sense is that the overall attitude around here continues to be "meh." It's no exaggeration to say that I've seen more hype over an impending snowstorm than about Irene. I think part of it is that so much national attention has focused on NYC, plus the sense people here have that "these things always fall apart by the time they get up here." People are definitely talking about it, but there seems to be an overall dismissiveness. If the west trends continue I could see this being nothing too special, but I'm a little surprised at the general mindset. On a similar note, the early-AM disco from GYX certainly was anemic.... They should bring it later today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cryin won't do ya no good http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlPjlFQQ3fs&feature=fvst ahahahahahaha well played sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Probably will disagree with me but here goes. The tide at the end of the sound is full around 8 ish, the wind will be easterly, or SE at that time, this will force the tide into the sound, as such the formerly lower tide will increase. Based on prior storm and the surge potential there might not be a real low tide as forecasted but rather a lower tide, bad situation with that expansive wind field and current progs JMHO You're right... the tide will probably keep rising... but the max damage would occur if max winds coincide with high tide. I'm expect a 5-8 ft storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If I could pick a place to be it would be Old Saybrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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