Ivanhater Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z Euro Ensembles...many bringing it into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Tracks and intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Windshield wipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Windshield wipe? eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 eh? Last night was SC, Today GOM, windshield wiper effect until closer and fully formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Last night was SC, Today GOM, windshield wiper effect until closer and fully formed. It almost looked like you were saying is 3 images from the same model run were windshield wiping. I'm sure you didn't mean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The ensembles are all over the place...not surprising since we're looking in fantasy land past 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It is totally possible. While Hispanola would definitely cause significant weakening it isn't too hard for storms to regenerate after it. Heck even Emily did it...sure only became a TD but it did reform...and that had some big shear and horrid dry air to content with after Hispaniola as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Could this late-bloomer become Jose? Certainly some potential that 98L could beat 97L to development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Could this late-bloomer become Jose? Certainly some potential that 98L could beat 97L to development. At this point, I'm guessing Irene if 98L developed first because I'm doubting 93L becomes Harvey.Of course the last ill-defined wave we thought would become Jose became Hurricane Katrina...so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 At this point, I'm guessing Irene if 98L developed first because I'm doubting 93L becomes Harvey.Of course the last ill-defined wave we thought would become Jose became Hurricane Katrina...so who knows... Valid point. 93L has definitely been off my radar for awhile... just assumed from the chatter that it would get named eventually 'sides, I'd rather chase Irene than Jose, though I'm not big on either name. 97L has decent E Gulf recurve potential. At this point I'm putting more of my chips on the E Gulf landfall vs. EC landfall... don't think it can resist the eastern U.S. height weaknesses enough to stay on the W track into the W Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Valid point. 93L has definitely been off my radar for awhile... just assumed from the chatter that it would get named eventually 'sides, I'd rather chase Irene than Jose, though I'm not big on either name. 97L has decent E Gulf recurve potential. At this point I'm putting more of my chips on the E Gulf landfall vs. EC landfall... don't think it can resist the eastern U.S. height weaknesses enough to stay on the W track into the W Gulf. Names don't mean much in the long run. Although it wouldn't be the first time I was rooting for a name. In 2004, I was saying I hoped former TD-2 became Tropical Storm Bonnie before the new system was named because the new system (Hurricane Charley) had a much better shot at being something significant and I would prefer Hurricane Charley over Hurricane Bonnie. Of course, that happened and it was Charley. Same in 2005. Around July 4th everyone was saying the potential biggie in the Caribbean would be Cindy before the Depression by the Yucatan. I wanted it to be Dennis, and indeed, it became Hurricane Dennis as the Gulf system became Cindy first. I would rather track a Hurricane Harvey or a Hurricane Jose than an Irene. But it looks like 97L and 98L are on their way to becoming Harvey and Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 18z GFS in the 12z Euro camp pretty dang impressive at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Galveston it is 18z GFS in the 12z Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Only 43 more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Miami Masher? Charleston Chew? Houston Pounder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Houston Pounder? Surfside Screamer 0z Brownsville Brawler 6z Tampico Terror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Surfside Screamer 0z Brownsville Brawler 6z Tampico Terror Chetumal Cruncher for the next run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now the 18z GFS is being realistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Surfside Screamer 0z Brownsville Brawler 6z Tampico Terror Damn, I missed it... Houston Howler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The 18Z THU GFS hit at Galveston makes it 15 runs in a row with a U.S. hit from 97L! Granted, this latest run hits about 1,000 miles away from many of the other hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The 18Z THU GFS hit at Galveston makes it 15 runs in a row with a U.S. hit from 97L! Granted, this latest run hits about 1,000 miles away from many of the other hits. Pretty big shift to the west in this run. No matter what happens, the GFS continues to advertise a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 How full is the glass, Ed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 18z GFS in the 12z Euro camp pretty dang impressive at this range... Well, if something like that turns out to be the track, I'm sure you like your chances of getting in on the remnants, don't you TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm with you asking the same question, could something like the 12z GFS happen?? I know they can intensify rapidly but it traverses all of Cuba for quite awhile and explodes once it hits the warm waters after. Not the best tropical forecaster here so learning from some of you guys. That 12z Euro loop is very impressive.. Just to answer your question while browsing the topic.... doing nothing more..... Hurricane Frederic in 1979 did this very thing... and went onto be a Category 4 south of the central Gulf Coast... and the worst hurricane in Alabama state history, aside from Hurricane Ivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 How full is the glass, Ed? 18Z is perfect for drought relief as long as it hits 100 miles at least farther down. My wife's Grandma loves that place, now rebuilt. 'Wayleeta'. Everyone loves my wife's grandparents. The Popo Party Pad. High water, but no damage from Claudette, and they're tapping Lake Conroe and have the city of mando water rationing. So it is 100 miles or so from perfect. And a GFS run almost 2 weeks out. But it'll hit Pensacola or points East if I had to guess. But I don't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Maine-mexico look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 zoomed in view of the 18z GFS...max of 106kts at 850mb, way way too early for specifics still ofcourse but still getting this strong a storm at this range is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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