Marion_NC_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Possibly, but the 12Z GFS drops over 5 inches of rain from 97L then a day or two after it passes it puts us right back into the 90's again.... Yeah...there may be a good chance that you can squeeze some days in the 90's post tropical system...I was thinking more about the fact that you may save one day just because of increased clouds and moisture content ahead of the system and then another day due to the storm itself...of course that would be relying on perfect timing and the forward movement of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Harvey is official so 97L will either be Irene or Jose. The name Irene sounds more threatening to me than Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just for fun I went over the Meteostar site to see what kind of numerical guidance the GFS was showing for the Southern Appalachians around Day 10, the time that 97L would make it closest pass... Asheville Regional surely had some interesting stats at 240 hours... Surface Pressure: 988 mb 850 Winds: ESE 78 mph 10m winds: ENE 22 mph Lovell Field (Chatanooga) had the same 850 winds, sufrace wind NW 25 mph and a 987 mb surface pressure. Just using a sample of those two reporting stations, there will be hurricane force winds just off the surface that could easily be tapped. Huricane force winds likely along the mountain tops in Tennessee and North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Let me ask you Robert, let's say this thing makes it into the GoM as a weak TS (all hypothetical I know) does the environment in the GoM make you believe that it could ramp up quickly? I know a storm needs more than warm SST's to ramp up. ie Don earlier this year.... I think it could but its not safe yet to assume that the entire flow on GFS is correct at 5H during the days 7 through 9 yet. I don't trust it, but if *IF* that model were to be right at the 5H and above levels, and if Irene (or Jose) survives the trip through the DR and Cuba, then it will be in an excellent spot for sudden growth. Thats why the model develops it quickly after leaving Cuba, a strong 200mb ridge develops and gets stronger over the cyclone on days 6 through 8, which is good for evacuating the air aloft and dissippates the heat, and the Gulf would easily feed the storm. It follows the Bermuda ridge and gets steered into the Fl. panhandle. It could become a real monster, but I'm not saying thats going to happen. I don't see much of anything to destroy it , like shear or dry air once it makes it to western Cuba. But assuming it even takes that track is tricky. Could easily head more north and feel the trough off the East Coast next week. Just too early to say. I will say that usually the ECMWF and GFS don't make hurricanes strong enough on their progs this far out. And the fact they are showing the storm so strong and deep does raise an eyebrow. But eh, we'll just track it and see. deep eastern trough is close enough to pull it north a bit, but gets out of the way in time, but the momentum of the exiting trough could be enough to pull the track nw, then north, and then being further north the natural track would be to follow the western flank of Bermuda ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 12z EURO now somewhat on board with GFS in regards to the ultimate desination of 97L, only difference is that the EURO cuts it across Cuba and the Florida Everglades then basically riding along the western edge of the Florida Pennisula and into the Southeast US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I hear ya Robert, I think 97L will develops like most others as well. What does concern me is some tracks take it through PR, Hispaniola and Cuba before hitting the GoM. That can't inspire a lot of confidence about a strong system making landfall. I know you said location and timing, but what i fear is we get the system to move through the southeast but at modest intensity. That to me would be the fake out considering most models go gangbusters with the strength. It would be a blessing if Hispaniola and Cuba ripped it to bits and made for a weak landfall system. Weak systems can still dump a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Is there any chance that much cooler air comes in after this potential hurricane passes by in 7-10 days ? I know there was much cooler air that came in after Charley in 2004 and I was wondering if we could see the same type scenario ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It would be a blessing if Hispaniola and Cuba ripped it to bits and made for a weak landfall system. Weak systems can still dump a lot of rain. as Dan mentioned the 2 main models are not far apart, considering 7 to 10 days off. ECMWF comes through the peninsula of Florida then into central Georgia and slows a lot in GA. That would be good news as far as weakening the storm but still maintain a lot of rain. Verbatim has Savannah getting 9" of rain through the period and most of GA and SC is in 5" or more through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 as Dan mentioned the 2 main models are not far apart, considering 7 to 10 days off. ECMWF comes through the peninsula of Florida then into central Georgia and slows a lot in GA. That would be good news as far as weakening the storm but still maintain a lot of rain. Verbatim has Savannah getting 9" of rain through the period and most of GA and SC is in 5" or more through the run. I'm still learning the models, but wouldn't it give a nice amount of rain in Central to Western NC as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'm still learning the models, but wouldn't it give a nice amount of rain in Central to Western NC as well? Euro stops it in GA at days 9 and 10. Doesnt' get much into NC...but take that with a grain of salt of course. These runs are going to change a lot, but atleast they're staying in the Southeast , a few runs sometimes go due west to Texas. It will narrow down by the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What a scorcher today is. Feels like an oven. Currently 95 degrees, tied for the hottest day this month . I think the 2 week dry spell we've had has helped make it hotter than it otherwise would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Is there any chance that much cooler air comes in after this potential hurricane passes by in 7-10 days ? I know there was much cooler air that came in after Charley in 2004 and I was wondering if we could see the same type scenario ? Don't know, but these hurricanes always bring with them a nasty hot and humid airmass on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like showers are starting to get going again today, hopefully no where near severe as yesterday. I was able to download Level 2 data from the storm yesterday, incredible.. I dont think i've ever seen such high readings especially this far from the radar before. So many trees on power lines down, plus 4 homes moved off their foundation. Few damage pics (not mine) and the radar image when it was at its worst (Lost power at this point) Some hail Picture of this cloud taken on the HWY 64 ramp. radar Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Nice pics, Jalba. Didn't realize how severe that storm was when it rolled through. We just got hit by rogue shower that was aligned just right to make DirecTV give it's "searching for signal" on the screen, but we only picked up .03" from it. It was intense somewhere close by, but not here IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like showers are starting to get going again today, hopefully no where near severe as yesterday. I was able to download Level 2 data from the storm yesterday, incredible.. I dont think i've ever seen such high readings especially this far from the radar before. So many trees on power lines down, plus 4 homes moved off their foundation. Few damage pics (not mine) and the radar image when it was at its worst (Lost power at this point) Incredible. Awesome pictures. I could tell yesterday that it was going to be bad there. I've never seen 75dzb on radar around here, until yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Picture of this cloud taken on the HWY 64 ramp. I guess that this is the "funnel cloud" people have been talking about on facebook since yesterday evening. Really incredible pics, kinda wish I had been around T-ville yesterday to see this storm first hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eswaggins Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like showers are starting to get going again today, hopefully no where near severe as yesterday. I was able to download Level 2 data from the storm yesterday, incredible.. I dont think i've ever seen such high readings especially this far from the radar before. So many trees on power lines down, plus 4 homes moved off their foundation. Few damage pics (not mine) and the radar image when it was at its worst (Lost power at this point) Some hail Picture of this cloud taken on the HWY 64 ramp. radar Incredible. WOW is that HAIL on the back deck? that is EPIC! Incredible picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The Taylorsville storm yesterday was at the top of the dzb range on the site I used, in addition to GSP doppler. It was just out of range of all three nearby doppler (GSP RAX CLT terminal). If someone has the images saved could you upload. I could make a gif loop if I got time.Extremely impressive cell and judging by all the hail and the down power lines probably had a strong microburst. This proves once again that cells that are coming over the crest of the northwest mtns of NC and southwest VA have really been devastating cells or lines. Never seen such a destructive year with northwest flow events as this one , for the sliver of western third of NC. There's been a lot of small but intense storms lately, and early on a lot of bow lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is all I could get from the radar images I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juspeachy Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Well, this little storm came out of nowhere & it is LOUD! Woke up the little one... 2nd night in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Awesome shower to wake up to this morning. Laid down 0.20" in 16min; not bad. Ended up with 0.31". Great way to start the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 You can really work a photo over in PS. I won a prize for the shot below. Despite how it looks it was taken on the Albermarle Sound at 4:30 in the afternoon on a sunny July day. Love that shot. All of the software tools try to make the photos seem more realistic to our eye. Without them, cameras are useless in scenes like this one. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 From RAH AFD for late next week. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH (OR SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGING) OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS ONE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL STEERING OF ANY SUCH SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS OF THE TROPICS...THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POP HIGHER AND DAYTIME TEMPS LOWER THU-FRI. LOWS 68-73. HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Got hit by 3 storms lastnight and picked up 3.10 inches of rain from them. It was quite a surprise seeing we had a 20% chance of a few showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Well, this little storm came out of nowhere & it is LOUD! Woke up the little one... 2nd night in a row. sweet - glad you had a storm. just missed mby that radar shows what it has most of the summer - storms all around but not over head. oh well - at least fall is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I picked up .52 last night while CAE snagged .68 Long term snippet from CAE for Mon-Fri SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL POSITION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND EXTENT AND TIMING OF ANY DRIER AIR THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE FA. ALSO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY LATE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juspeachy Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 sweet - glad you had a storm. just missed mby that radar shows what it has most of the summer - storms all around but not over head. oh well - at least fall is right around the corner. About 30 minutes after that went by, we had a thunder shower & it rained more than with the storm. Sorry you missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I believe this to be true although I have yet to find those darn portals Fixed your post...lol I have become a vampire from March to November, going outside only when the sun goes down. After doing time at Jackson, in summer..I believe the portals are there. I still contend though, that Augusta is where the pointy tailed fellow has a steam room T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Got hit by 3 storms lastnight and picked up 3.10 inches of rain from them. It was quite a surprise seeing we had a 20% chance of a few showers. Had a storm like that in early June that dropped 4 inches of rain and there was only a 20% chance of rain. You could literally watch the small cloud in the mountains just keep expanding and backbuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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