LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Best still I have seen so far from Carolina Beach. Very nice picture. That thing looks like it has been enhanced quite a bit. I would love to see the non-Photoshopped version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Very nice picture. That thing looks like it has been enhanced quite a bit. I would love to see the non-Photoshopped version. Exactly what I thought...it looks a little unreal and I prefer a more natural look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Picked up a nice 0.53" yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Exactly what I thought...it looks a little unreal and I prefer a more natural look. saw it live from our local news last night. It looked close to that image but not that defined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 this mornings Atlantic loop shows the system starting to develop now. Funny how both models now have troughing in the east when it gets here, instead of what they did have which is a zonal flow well north (until yesterday when an Ohio Valley cutoff formed). Still, the GFS manages to pull it up into the Southeast via the eastern Gulf, meaning a ton of rain with the interaction of the front in the Apps, onshore flow and lots of convergence. The ECMWF brushes the East Coast. There's going to be a lot of changes on the runs between now and the next 8 days....gonna be a long week of watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Very nice picture. That thing looks like it has been enhanced quite a bit. I would love to see the non-Photoshopped version. Yeah definitely heavy on the brightness / contrast sliders but I still think it is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 this mornings Atlantic loop shows the system starting to develop now. Funny how both models now have troughing in the east when it gets here, instead of what they did have which is a zonal flow well north (until yesterday when an Ohio Valley cutoff formed). Still, the GFS manages to pull it up into the Southeast via the eastern Gulf, meaning a ton of rain with the interaction of the front in the Apps, onshore flow and lots of convergence. The ECMWF brushes the East Coast. There's going to be a lot of changes on the runs between now and the next 8 days....gonna be a long week of watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 15 days straight without a drop of rain. The grass is still greenish from the July rains but its getting time to set out the fall garden and I need some rain in a bad way. Last years fall garden sucked because of the August/September dry spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 15 days straight without a drop of rain. The grass is still greenish from the July rains but its getting time to set out the fall garden and I need some rain in a bad way. Last years fall garden sucked because of the August/September dry spell. Not to mention the heat last August and September. I hope we don't have 90's all the way until the end of September like we did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS takes the storm on the southern border of Cuba where it slows, then it cuts north into the Florida panhandle, and toward the southern Apps by 10 days. That track would be a lot of rain for the eastern Gulf coast, all of GA and most of Alabama and up into the Carolinas and eastern TN. It allows the trough to barely miss it. Just for giggles at this point, but within 5 days when its nearer Cuba I think the models will get a much better cone of certainty...until then its a long wait. Oh and the strength is up there as well, as it strengthens rapidly after brushing Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS takes the storm on the southern border of Cuba where it slows, then it cuts north into the Florida panhandle, and toward the southern Apps by 10 days. That track would be a lot of rain for the eastern Gulf coast, all of GA and most of Alabama and up into the Carolinas and eastern TN. It allows the trough to barely miss it. Just for giggles at this point, but within 5 days when its nearer Cuba I think the models will get a much better cone of certainty...until then its a long wait. Oh and the strength is up there as well, as it strengthens rapidly after brushing Cuba. Bring it on, No damage or deaths please but I would love a nice soaking tropical rain with some moderate winds.... I am either routing for a massive amount of rain for the southeast or as I said in the other thread, it would be very comical if this thing never really gets going and the GFS and Euro have been faking us out for the last week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Got about half an inch of needed rain this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS takes the storm on the southern border of Cuba where it slows, then it cuts north into the Florida panhandle, and toward the southern Apps by 10 days. That track would be a lot of rain for the eastern Gulf coast, all of GA and most of Alabama and up into the Carolinas and eastern TN. It allows the trough to barely miss it. Just for giggles at this point, but within 5 days when its nearer Cuba I think the models will get a much better cone of certainty...until then its a long wait. Oh and the strength is up there as well, as it strengthens rapidly after brushing Cuba. It's been a while since the FL panhandle even had a threat of a strong hurricane. If that track were to happen I would expect some huge rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Day #74 of 90+ temps in Atlanta. 16 away from tying the record. Will Atlanta do it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Day #74 of 90+ temps in Atlanta. 16 away from tying the record. Will Atlanta do it ? Probably, what a **** record to have, I'm sorry I have had to endure two brutal summers in a row..... It's already bad enough in Atlanta during the summer, the last thing we need is record breaking consistent heat..... Can we time travel back to 1967 please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Probably, what a **** record to have, I'm sorry I have had to endure two brutal summers in a row..... It's already bad enough in Atlanta during the summer, the last thing we need is record breaking consistent heat..... Can we time travel back to 1967 please? PFFFTTTTT....I am currently at 90 days above 90deg so far and not an end in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Probably, what a **** record to have, I'm sorry I have had to endure two brutal summers in a row..... It's already bad enough in Atlanta during the summer, the last thing we need is record breaking consistent heat..... Can we time travel back to 1967 please? What I can't get over is Atlanta having 159 days of 90+ this year and last year and no 100's to show for it. This year and last are very similar in that both had very persistent heat, but not record heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What I can't get over is Atlanta having 159 days of 90+ this summer and last summer and no 100's to show for it. This summer and last are very similar in that both had very persistent heat, but not record heat. EDIT: you fixed it, but you are still a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 15 days straight without a drop of rain. The grass is still greenish from the July rains but its getting time to set out the fall garden and I need some rain in a bad way. Last years fall garden sucked because of the August/September dry spell. I haven't had so much as a single drop in August. Over 6 inches in July, and we still have a leftover surplus from Spring, but it's getting really dusty out in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Bring it on, No damage or deaths please but I would love a nice soaking tropical rain with some moderate winds.... I am either routing for a massive amount of rain for the southeast or as I said in the other thread, it would be very comical if this thing never really gets going and the GFS and Euro have been faking us out for the last week.... I'd love to see heavy rains like what happened with Faye. Opal did nothing here if I recall. But this one is swooping in from the east at first, then north,so the southeasterly flow off the Atlantic should easily scoop in the moisture from 2 sides to get a lot of folks. As for being faked out on the models, I wouldn't ever rely on astorm, either synoptic low, or trop. system from the models. Its always safer to rely on global synoptics in the region, and those have supported development all along, based on satellite data. Even yesterday when there was nothing visible hardly, and now we have a great spin and quick development of it, there's a reason the models develop it because it fits synoptics. My thoughts have always been location and timing, those always mean the most, regarding the 2 main ridges and where the weakness or trough will be. Thats still unanswerable esp. since the models have flipped, but if you go back in my post on the devleopment of the trough in the Ohio Valley, I suspected that even before the models showed it, since that fits climo pretty well. All things considered, theres a reasonable chance it gets swept up and recurves with the first trough, but I'd say its less than 50% since its so far south. The better chance could be that it stays further south in the Gulf than models are showing, but really anything is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What I can't get over is Atlanta having 159 days of 90+ this year and last year and no 100's to show for it. This year and last are very similar in that both had very persistent heat, but not record heat. I had the hottest summer on record last year, but never got to 100 either. This Summer has been almost as hot, but still haven't hit 100 yet again. The previous 2 or 3 Summers weren't as hot, yet I had the hottest temps officially ever recorded here and hit 102 and 104 a few times. . Its all about the overall flow , and what it is at your specific location. Atlanta just hasn't had the proper flow to make them quite hit 100. Plenty of 95 to 99 degree days are at many locations, thats just the way it goes. Same goes for Winter...you can have a very cold Winter and never hit 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 PFFFTTTTT....I am currently at 90 days above 90deg so far and not an end in sight rumor has it satan lives between Orangeburg and Columbia. I don't see how you take the never ending heat in Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just looking at 98L awhile ago kinda brings back memory of 1989 Hugo, that was the first storm that I remember tracking from about that same exact location from start to finish and got me interested in weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 rumor has it satan lives between Orangeburg and Columbia. I don't see how you take the never ending heat in Summer. all year. I believe this to be true although I have yet to find those darn portals Fixed your post...lol I have become a vampire from March to November, going outside only when the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Day #74 of 90+ temps in Atlanta. 16 away from tying the record. Will Atlanta do it ? 97L could play a huge role late next week in whether Atlanta breaks that record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I believe this to be true although I have yet to find those darn portals Fixed your post...lol I have become a vampire from March to November, going outside only when the sun goes down. LOL if you live near Newberry Shores I can direct you right to the devils door... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah definitely heavy on the brightness / contrast sliders but I still think it is cool. You can really work a photo over in PS. I won a prize for the shot below. Despite how it looks it was taken on the Albermarle Sound at 4:30 in the afternoon on a sunny July day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 97L could play a huge role late next week in whether Atlanta breaks that record... Possibly, but the 12Z GFS drops over 5 inches of rain from 97L then a day or two after it passes it puts us right back into the 90's again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'd love to see heavy rains like what happened with Faye. Opal did nothing here if I recall. But this one is swooping in from the east at first, then north,so the southeasterly flow off the Atlantic should easily scoop in the moisture from 2 sides to get a lot of folks. As for being faked out on the models, I wouldn't ever rely on astorm, either synoptic low, or trop. system from the models. Its always safer to rely on global synoptics in the region, and those have supported development all along, based on satellite data. Even yesterday when there was nothing visible hardly, and now we have a great spin and quick development of it, there's a reason the models develop it because it fits synoptics. My thoughts have always been location and timing, those always mean the most, regarding the 2 main ridges and where the weakness or trough will be. Thats still unanswerable esp. since the models have flipped, but if you go back in my post on the devleopment of the trough in the Ohio Valley, I suspected that even before the models showed it, since that fits climo pretty well. All things considered, theres a reasonable chance it gets swept up and recurves with the first trough, but I'd say its less than 50% since its so far south. The better chance could be that it stays further south in the Gulf than models are showing, but really anything is still possible. I hear ya Robert, I think 97L will develops like most others as well. What does concern me is some tracks take it through PR, Hispaniola and Cuba before hitting the GoM. That can't inspire a lot of confidence about a strong system making landfall. I know you said location and timing, but what i fear is we get the system to move through the southeast but at modest intensity. That to me would be the fake out considering most models go gangbusters with the strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Let me ask you Robert, let's say this thing makes it into the GoM as a weak TS (all hypothetical I know) does the environment in the GoM make you believe that it could ramp up quickly? I know a storm needs more than warm SST's to ramp up. ie Don earlier this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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