Psalm 148:8 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Here we go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Here we go!!! Well this is the month I've had my hopes pinned on for widespread change. We'll see. Usually my area has a big turnaround in that month, but this Summer hasn't been nearly what the others were in terms of dryness, so not sure I'd even want a "change". Others need the big rains so if it comes I think it would be from tropical inflow...either a system in the Gulf or the Atantic, either of which can stay over water and still bring enough inflow in to generate storms. But first, more heat. Just 6 to 8 weeks roughly before we get the first real Autumn cold front (late September here usually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well this is the month I've had my hopes pinned on for widespread change. We'll see. Usually my area has a big turnaround in that month, but this Summer hasn't been nearly what the others were in terms of dryness, so not sure I'd even want a "change". Others need the big rains so if it comes I think it would be from tropical inflow...either a system in the Gulf or the Atantic, either of which can stay over water and still bring enough inflow in to generate storms. But first, more heat. Just 6 to 8 weeks roughly before we get the first real Autumn cold front (late September here usually). Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well looks like my first week at school will be a brutal one next week....Sorry guys, after tomorrow, you won't be seeing me post until the evenings.....Tue is the return day to work....and I do hope that, unlike last Tuesday, I have air and lights when I get into my room....according to numerous sources my forecast ranges from 94-97 here this week....Sooo hoping that the lower end pans out....I hate the first day of school being sooo hot! My job is to stand in the heat from 3:00-whenever all the car riders get picked up.....and we have a whole lot of car riders on the first day of school......hoping for moisture return and a big bullseye on the map for rain on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well, August looks to start out with tracking what should become tropical storm or hurricane Emily. Heat is the bigger thing right now, but it is very possible that this storm could pass close to or hit the east coast. We will wait to see. Excited about August because I start UNC-A this month for my Atmospheric Science degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If anything, I'm hoping that we end up getting everyone across the Southeast plenty of rain during August. It's a shame to see and hear about certain areas struggling just to get a drop out of the sky. Whether it's through a large storm system or a setup allowing favorable flow, it'll be beneficial if we can get it to occur. It'd be great to keep up rain totals, plus that would also bring relief from the heat for some that are lucky enough to get drenched on. We'll see how the pattern evolves from here on out (if it does so). Anything to not repeat what ended up happening last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 August came in hot for me. 11:55 PM update was 84 degrees at Dobbins, 12:55 AM update 82. Not a great sign for tomorrow, the heat islands are cooling very slowly tonight. Hartsfield was 85 at 11:55 and now 83 at 12:55..... I really feel sorry for Texas and the megalopolis of Dallas. Forecast for them is painful to even read. 30 days of 100+ in a row ongoing. The week ahead temps : Monday - 107 Tuesday - 108 Wednesday - 108 Thursday - 107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 GFS over the past 2 or 3 runs shows a more stubborn ridge developing off the Southeast coast Day 5 which has resulted in a western shift in the track of a possible "Emily". Infact the 6z run has a South Florida landfall, then just before it splashes into the Gulf, the next trough makes Emily curve hard right and back out into the Atlantic...it will be interesting to see if that trend continues in the GFS...the trough day 7-8 brings a belt of strong westerlies that saves North and South Carolina from any landfall possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Late Birthday wish to Psalms! Started off August by picking up .19" overnight...unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Figure we should start off August with a cool photo! This was taken this morning by a viewer near Columbus, GA. Now, let the heat begin!!! With how hot we are forecast to be... we might as well be on Tatooine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Low of 77 this morning. FFC and the 6Z has ticked down temps slightly for today and the rest of the week. Upper 90's still suck but not as close to that 100 mark as we were yesterday. GTRFs still shows 100 degree temps but not starting till Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 One question about the heat forecast to return for Tues and Wed and that is will it be dry heat or does humidity kick back up to sickening levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Late Birthday wish to Psalms! Started off August by picking up .19" overnight...unexpected. ditto! happy late birthday lol mby ended up with a surprise .50" last night, total for the weekend about .75. it was nice seeing th ground wet this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 One question about the heat forecast to return for Tues and Wed and that is will it be dry heat or does humidity kick back up to sickening levels? A very dry heat for us in the central and western Carolinas. The GFS has dewpoints mixing down to the 50's in upper SC and most of western 1/3 of NC...so that would make it feel better atleast. The GFS and ECMWF both have surface temps of 100 around the 85 corridor from around Lake Hartwell or Athens to GSP CLT and RDU on Wednesday. The record highs for GSP and CLT on Wednesday are 98, and both of those go all the way back to that great year of 1888. Its going to be close, but I think both sites could pass that record. On second thought CLT has had a lot of rain lately so that may help absorb the intense heat and just prevent it. Check out the 104 to 106 temps GFS is showing for southern Ala/Ms border area, where the Euro only had mid 90's that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 On the drive in to work I realized how much cloud cover we have this morning around metro Atlanta. It's actually quite cloudy, that can do nothing but help inhibit extreme temps later today. It actually makes perfect sense with FFC dropping the highs for today about four degrees. It would be very hard for the 97 forecast yesterday here would verify. The 93 FFC now has seems much more reasonable with the way things look this morning. I'm really not looking forward to the rest of this week. Forecast highs of 95-97 all week after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 GGEM has Emily getting into the eastern Gulf by day 6. Take with a grain of salt though, the track could be way off. GFS has it hitting Florida then going back offshore Ga and SC. The further south it stays the next few days , the better chance it has of not recurving into the Atlantic, but anything is possible this far out. The best I could tell the ECMWF loses it after it goes through the Bahamas and brushes east Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 GGEM has Emily getting into the eastern Gulf by day 6. Take with a grain of salt though, the track could be way off. GFS has it hitting Florida then going back offshore Ga and SC. The further south it stays the next few days , the better chance it has of not recurving into the Atlantic, but anything is possible this far out. The best I could tell the ECMWF loses it after it goes through the Bahamas and brushes east Florida. nice, if it does make the gulf (taking with a grain of salt). What would be the likely track after that? Would the recurve happen late or would some other feature take over all together (recurve does not happen at all)? The reason I ask is if it hits the GoM a trough pulling it north and east would take it over the Southeast states. Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 nice, if it does make the gulf (taking with a grain of salt). What would be the likely track after that? Would the recurve happen late or would some other feature take over all together? The reason I ask is if it hits the GoM a trough pulling it north and east would take it over the Southeast states. Is that possible? I don't trust the models yet showing where the ridges will be, and those will probably decide where it goes. The semi-permanent one in the Plains/Tex. or the occasional one off the Southeast coast, or a small gap between the two is possible. Looks like there will be a front lying in the vicinity of Oh-ky-Va-NC east to west, but its possible emily stays so far south it continues west bound. Most models do have it approaching Florida, and it may get pushed back /recurve just before hitting there, or it may recurve on the west side of FL. like the GGEM, which would be the best case scenario for us in the Southeast as a whole to get rain from it. A lot of factors to watch later this week, which means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Late Birthday wish to Psalms! Started off August by picking up .19" overnight...unexpected. ditto! happy late birthday lol mby ended up with a surprise .50" last night, total for the weekend about .75. it was nice seeing th ground wet this morning On the drive in to work I realized how much cloud cover we have this morning around metro Atlanta. It's actually quite cloudy, that can do nothing but help inhibit extreme temps later today. It actually makes perfect sense with FFC dropping the highs for today about four degrees. It would be very hard for the 97 forecast yesterday here would verify. The 93 FFC now has seems much more reasonable with the way things look this morning. I'm really not looking forward to the rest of this week. Forecast highs of 95-97 all week after today. Wow!! thanks on the bday wishes....never had so many in my life...hope everyone else has as many happy wishes as I have.....Around here this morning, it is currently still cloudy....This is GREAT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We've really mixed out today. Dewpoint is down to 62 at AKH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 currently 85 and cloudy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 ditto! happy late birthday lol mby ended up with a surprise .50" last night, total for the weekend about .75. it was nice seeing th ground wet this morning Hope your birthday was a great one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 FFC inched temps up again for tomorrow and Wednesday. now showing the 98 and 99 for KMGE. Here is a snippet from the AFD about the heat. AS FAR AS HEAT INDICES TODAY...MODELS KEEP HIGH PARKED WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT MID LEVELS AND DESPITE LESS ACTIVITY TODAY...GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TODAY. MAV/MET BLEND HAS BEEN DOING A STELLAR JOB OF LATE AND WILL STICK CLOSE WITH ITS NUMBERS. USING THESE YIELDS INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...SHORT OF CRITERIA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT AS IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A FEW DEGREES TO CREATE ISSUES. DRY CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN MORE APPARENT FOR TUE AND WED WITH NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT POPS ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOW IN AGREEMENT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE OFFING. SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER...THE MODELS HAVE OFFERED THIS SOLUTION SEVERAL DAYS OUT ONLY TO BACK DOWN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. 850 TEMPS DO REACH NEAR 25C BUT CENTER OF HIGH ALOFT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL REDUCE SOME OF THE 104S AND 105S ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AND GO MORE WITH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. REGARDLESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I don't know how much rain we had yesterday and saturday night but it was some of the hardest rain we have had this year. Ditches were cleaned out with grass laying down where rain ran over it. I would guess about 2 inches at least. Depend on where you were at as a few miles from me got just a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 GGEM has Emily getting into the eastern Gulf by day 6. Take with a grain of salt though, the track could be way off. GFS has it hitting Florida then going back offshore Ga and SC. The further south it stays the next few days , the better chance it has of not recurving into the Atlantic, but anything is possible this far out. The best I could tell the ECMWF loses it after it goes through the Bahamas and brushes east Florida. we are due for a hurricane. I know the coast don't want to see it and I hope damage is minimal but we are due. Its been a few years. I hope we just get a tropical storm out of gulf but even they produce tornadoes here. Cindy did that about 4 years ago here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 FFC inched temps up again for tomorrow and Wednesday. now showing the 98 and 99 for KMGE. Here is a snippet from the AFD about the heat. FFC is forecasting a high of 102 here Wed (twc is forecasting 104). Either way, the heat suck factor is at the top of the scale. Got nothing over the weekend in terms of rain either. Once again it was all around me but ended up with zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well this is the month I've had my hopes pinned on for widespread change. We'll see. Usually my area has a big turnaround in that month, but this Summer hasn't been nearly what the others were in terms of dryness, so not sure I'd even want a "change". Others need the big rains so if it comes I think it would be from tropical inflow...either a system in the Gulf or the Atantic, either of which can stay over water and still bring enough inflow in to generate storms. But first, more heat. Just 6 to 8 weeks roughly before we get the first real Autumn cold front (late September here usually). First off Happy Bday Psalm! (Sorry its late) Robert, One of my favorite things about this board is your Winter predictions. I hope you have a year like last year as you were on fire!.....Just as long as you are calling for suprise or big snows. No pridictions of dry or warmth will be allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I know the heat is going to be brutal here but has anyone noticed the forecast for Dallas, TX? They are going to be 108 tomorrow! My friend said it is going on a few weeks of 100 degree weather and they didn't get any rain from Don either. Fall can't get here soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 quote name='POWERSTROKE' timestamp='1312225244' post='851120'] we are due for a hurricane. I know the coast don't want to see it and I hope damage is minimal but we are due. Its been a few years. I hope we just get a tropical storm out of gulf but even they produce tornadoes here. Cindy did that about 4 years ago here I don't think we are due necessarily as we have gone a lot longer than this without a LF on the inner banks. That said it been over 10 yrs since a storm (hurricane) has come on in over NC. Emily if she gets her act together quickly will be the real player for us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Just picked up .02" from a passing shower. August is off to a good start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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