kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Seems to be be nearly stationary, so it would be difficult to say which direction it may or may not be moving. I think that a west of south motion has finally commenced. Here is a radar loop: http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Look carefully at that hooklike feature on the left side of the convection. It appears to be a center and it seems to be moving somewhat west of south. Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I forget who it is who said it, maybe the local TV station forum pro-met, but the BAM models, besides being fairly simple models, are also meant for use in the tropics. New GFS weakens 98L and drifts the remains Northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 BOUY 41009 20 miles east of the Cape now has NE winds...they were NW this afternoon then turned N this evening..now NE... means still moving south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Per JB on Twitter just an hour ago: "System off Florida coast looking better on Melbourne Radar. Southeast coast should keep an eye on this. In a position where it could develop." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Per JB on Twitter just an hour ago: "System off Florida coast looking better on Melbourne Radar. Southeast coast should keep an eye on this. In a position where it could develop." The JB of models, the Canadian global, doesn't seem very enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hey now the Canadian was pretty respectable last season...but yeah I'm not very optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 RGEM keeps a very weak surface reflection, which is usually a sign that it will not develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like a Midwestern MCS to me, it's surprising this sort of structure has developed over the ocean, but this doesn't seem close to becoming a TC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This almost resembles how Bob developed twenty years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This almost resembles how Bob developed twenty years ago. What a completely provocative thing to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on July 17, 2011 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough has become a little better organized this morning about 125 miles east of Cape Canaveral Florida. However...surface observations indicate that pressures are high in the area and there are no signs of a organized wind circulation. Upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development...but could become a little more favorable during the next day or two. There is a low chance ...20 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly toward the south. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today...if necessary. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm liking how 98L looks on radar this morning, with a distinct circulation with deep thunderstorm activity. I think we see NHC go code orange with the recon flight being a go! Shear looks to be pretty low the next 24-48 hours though northerly flow north of the system may be able to advect dry air into the circulation from time to time. That might be the biggest limiting factor for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Orange ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm liking how 98L looks on radar this morning, with a distinct circulation with deep thunderstorm activity. I think we see NHC go code orange with the recon flight being a go! Shear looks to be pretty low the next 24-48 hours though northerly flow north of the system may be able to advect dry air into the circulation from time to time. That might be the biggest limiting factor for now. Orange ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. There you go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 pressures still high still but looks like we have WSW winds so its likely closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12 GMT 07/17/11 28.2N 78.8W 20 1014 Invest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I am a bit more impressed this morning as the convection has sustained its self overnight. Pressures are still rather high (1014mb) and any development should be rather slow, but the warm waters off the Coast of Florida do raise an eyebrow and if 98L continues this southward push, things could become a bit more interesting. Snip from NWS Key West... SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE USUAL ATLANTIC RIDGE ABSENT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE..THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKER FEATURE BETWEEN CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WASHES IT OUT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT CURRENTLY HAS ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Latest visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Some systems of non-tropical origin have had high environmental pressures before. http://www.nhc.noaa....ia/prelim01.gif Still, would like to see some model support. GFDL does get us back ahead of climatology, and would use up the name 'Bret', and I just think Cindy is a cooler name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 What a completely provocative thing to say. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 98L has a mighty fine structure. Worried about dry air injection from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ^^ Mabye the 12z global models will have a fair initialization this time. Seems like a surface low actually exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Visible clearly showing banding features beginning to develop. Buoys indicate a closed off system. I'd say Cherry on the two, followed by TD when recon arrives. Big question is does it come back far enough west to get steered by the continental high over the great plains, or meander off of Florida before lifting NE. The later seems most likely, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The 12z NAM gets more aggressive with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ^^ Mabye the 12z global models will have a fair initialization this time. Seems like a surface low actually exists. I guess the 3 BAM models weren't run this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I guess the 3 BAM models weren't run this morning? The BAM's aren't global models, right? I was talking about the GFS and ECM mainly and not the TC models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow, never thought it would take off this quickly. The structure is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Probably will be a nice cherry at 2pm. Seems to be doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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