GaWx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Invest 98-L is located about 100-150 miles E of the GA/FL border. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 looks sheared right now, but wouldnt be suprised if this became a tropical storm in the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 000 ABNT20 KNHC 161739 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Its going to be drifting to the south over the next few days into some HOT water. Shear may let up a bit as well. Should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Finally, thinking the area ESE of the MLC will be the place where surface development begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Vis loop It'll move slowly ~S for the next 24-36 hours, then it gets trapped between ridges, with very weak steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The farther south it goes without bumping into land the better chance it has. Warm gulf-stream, easterlies, and low shear south of the space coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 You get a feel for the shear from the divergence of the simple BAM model shallow to deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Based on eyeballing vis. sat., I'm guessing it is now ~150 miles E of St. Aug. moving SE. So, I think that the BAM's initialized OK at 18Z positionwise but not motionwise. Any other guesses? Also, it looks more sheared to me than earlier. My educ. guess based on looking at model progs is that if this doesn't cross FL by Mon., it will turn out NE to sea (leaving Bermuda as the only threat)as steering winds E of FL would no longer have much of a westerly component starting early Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 18/0600 B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE C. 18/0300Z D. 29.0N 78.5W E. 18/0500Z TO 18/0900Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Ophelia redux? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL162005_Ophelia.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Ophelia redux? http://www.nhc.noaa....005_Ophelia.pdf Ophelia as an Invest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 98L is a feature that casually caught my eye on the models a couple days ago, but often times, such features on the models tend to verify as a strung out mess or just get absorbed into the mid level flow and flung NE'ward. However, it certainly appears that we have a bonifide entity that is now removed, and becoming moreso, from the mid-latitude synoptic stream, drifting southward, and as such, has a much higher chance of developing into a TC than what the models have been sniffing at. A little early to put out any kind of map, however, I see a very plausible scenario, where we could have some mid week excitement in the GOM..... Interest peaked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoorBert Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Keep watch on the dry air to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Half of the models take this out to sea but the bam models take this into the gulf, so I'm going to say this is going to be a gulf storm as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The better divergence moving south with the mid level circulation reached some weakly convergent low level clouds, and bam! she goes. I agree that, even though it's non tropical origins, if it can get into the GOM, it would get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 The better divergence moving south with the mid level circulation reached some weakly convergent low level clouds, and bam! she goes. I agree that, even though it's non tropical origins, if it can get into the GOM, it would get very interesting. It looks to be moving south now after what looked like SE movement earlier and is ~100 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. Will it start moving more SW soon? A possible July analog? http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 It looks to be moving south now after what looked like SE movement earlier and is ~100 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. Will it start moving more SW soon? A possible July analog? http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no There are few, if any south moving storms in that part of the basin... a SWard moving one at it's TCG might be Doria '67, which occurred in Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Half of the models take this out to sea but the bam models take this into the gulf, so I'm going to say this is going to be a gulf storm as of now Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks to me as if 98L, after looking messier this afternoon due to moderate NW shear/much less convection near the center, is once again looking a good bit better. The shear seems to be lessening and convection has increased over the last few hours. Also, it appears to me that its prior S movement may be slowing. We'll see if a westerly component of motion is about to commence. I think we may have a contender for a TC. Also, I maintain my opinion that this will need to reach the FL coast by no later than Monday afternoon to have a chance to hit the U.S at all because westerly steering currents will then collapse. It may be Gulf-bound afterward as the BAM's suggest if it can get to FL by Mon. Any other opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 00z guidance suggests that it stays away from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Radar is detecting a nice mid-level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Its wrapping up nicely, they might upgrade this to 30 maybe 40% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like the circulation is right under an area of good upper level divergence... hence the storms billowing over the swirl now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like the circulation is right under an area of good upper level divergence... hence the storms billowing over the swirl now. Good, it's not just my eyes playing tricks on me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Storms with cyclogenesis around a radius of 120mi from 28.5N 78.5W 24 storms since 1851, only one did make it to the GOM, and just as a weak TD (Edouard 2002) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 MY RAIN, Oh my god , its my rain ! Mid atlantic is planning a party baby ! Is it Bret coming to the throw down it is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think that a west of south motion has finally commenced. Here is a radar loop: http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Look carefully at that hooklike feature on the left side of the convection. It appears to be a center and it seems to be moving somewhat west of south. Anyone else see that? If it does start moving SW or W, it will be interesting to see if the shear worsens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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