Mid July SNE Torch en route!

[HoarfrostHubb]

I like the red Maine hot dogs

[Damage In Tolland]

I like the red Maine hot dogs

Fanny or mouth?

[Typhoon Tip]

Ugh on big heat.

I've been in it many places and times but the standout for me in NE was 8/78 in Falmouth, MA where a terrible heat wave got us to 102f.

That crap has no business up here. I'll never forget the ecstacy of the afternoon back door cold front passage that ended our misery. Oh what joy that was!

I hope Ginx' recurving typhoon saves us.

PS- I pity the Baltimorean pilgrims. What an awful heat sink that place is.

Torrid greasy air composed of beaten smut molecules staining throats and lungs. Streaks of ooze pulsing from poisoned pores.

A gooey miasma coating weenies from their dingy black-socked sandaled feet to their sodden and clingy Oscar Mayer steamed weiner tees.

Those weenies are gonna look like the inedible red dogs Eastern Mainers keep for days in steam cabinets at road-side gas stations.

Burnt as red as a Downeast Maine frank and, just as tasteless!

Have fun.

Vim Toot!

Not likely that typhoon will have that much impact in the ides of summer, when the gradient everywhere is too weak to trigger a response. That works better in the autumn/winter, when the hemispheric geopotential medium is on the decline. Gradient is needed in order for the physical interplay between thermal sources and sinks around the globe to have an effect on R-wave numbers. In mid July to about September 1, there really isn't enough gradient around to suffice that effect.

It's another reason why so many of the teleconnectors (WPO, EPO, PNA...etc.) have less correlation on the flow in summer when compared to the same standard deviation in mid winter. Yet another way to look at it is the 101 Synoptic Met discussion point(s) about wave lengths shrinking in summer; what that is really all about is weakened gradient causing the flow to differentiate toward nebulous - though not outright of course. Local-scaled anomalies take proxy in creating the warm and cold nodes, to go along with disconnected regions of westerlies, creating more granularity in anomalies.

That all said, we do have anomalous gradients for summer though - particular to this year. So perhaps all is not lost? We'll have to see how the in situ environment begins to respond to that, because the flow over the top of the ridge nodes around the hemisphere appears to be anomalously fast. This may very well be a stubborn -AO interacting with the seasonal migration N of subtropical ridge strength in the means. That "might" off-set the more typical gradient muting; interesting experiment more than anything. The basic concepts are very strong though so a betting educated one would probably be less impressed with recurving TC this early in the summer.

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Have seen the bevy of overnight guidance. It appears there is finally some consensus emerged on repositioning the warm core or the ridge to over the eastern cordillera ...perhaps as far east as the MA region in time, perferrably D5.5-10. Up through D5, there are detail differences. The 00Z ECM for example, although it temporarily lowers heights over the NE CONUS D4-5, it doesn't really bring much of any fropa along with it. Per course the gradient at the sfc offers SW, then a "col" interval, then back to SW as the by then extended range cooker gets under way. Meanwhile, the CMC has an interval of substantive ml confluence over eastern Man./western Ontario D3 leading ....resulting in a substantial summer polar high and cfropa for the NE states. These two runs appear on the extreme sides of the envelope. That unfortunately puts us in the unsavory position of having to give the compromised GFS a nod for a period of time that is D4 through 6; scary I know. Anyway, this solution offers a fropa that is muted some over the CMC version, and also is keeping with seasonal trends.

Teleconnectors are of little use right now, offering limited or no corrective measure. The NAO is utterly neutral for 2 weeks at CDC, and CPC prognostics have the NAO going positive, but not really until D10 - which is outside the lead for this outlook. The PNA is strongly negative through the period, but again...that index bears less meaningful indicator on the field in mid summer. This all makes us "hidden trend" reliant with the operational and ensemble means, combined. That pretty much brings us back to the consensus appeal.

For that I am above 50% at this point that a potent interval of heat may unfortunately finally succeed where prior to this season there has been more than just a few model cycles that have hinted. The deep layer ridge (that has taken on thermal feebacks) will likely weaken while it becomes transient, and then when it comes to rest further E around D7-8 it may very well resurge to the N side of 594dm heights. That will probably tug along with it some of that airs making media in the heartland, and perhaps some EML/Sonoran ejecta for good measure. I won't go higher probability-wise as this season's penchants for troughing backing down some from the Maritimes could still off-set that ridge migration east.

[Mica Vim Toot]

My fanny or mouth?

Ick!

Vim Toot

[Damage In Tolland]

Ick!

Vim Toot

[Mica Vim Toot]

Not likely that typhoon will have that much impact in the ides of summer, when the gradient everywhere is too weak to trigger a response. That works better in the autumn/winter, when the hemispheric geopotential medium is on the decline. Gradient is needed in order for the physical interplay between thermal sources and sinks around the globe to have an effect on R-wave numbers. In mid July to about September 1, there really isn't enough gradient around to suffice that effect.

It's another reason why so many of the teleconnectors (WPO, EPO, PNA...etc.) have less correlation on the flow in summer when compared to the same standard deviation in mid winter. Yet another way to look at it is the 101 Synoptic Met discussion point(s) about wave lengths shrinking in summer; what that is really all about is weakened gradient causing the flow to differentiate toward nebulous - though not outright of course. Local-scaled anomalies take proxy in creating the warm and cold nodes, to go along with disconnected regions of westerlies, creating more granularity in anomalies.

That all said, we do have anomalous gradients for summer though - particular to this year. So perhaps all is not lost? We'll have to see how the in situ environment begins to respond to that, because the flow over the top of the ridge nodes around the hemisphere appears to be anomalously fast. This may very well be a stubborn -AO interacting with the seasonal migration N of subtropical ridge strength in the means. That "might" off-set the more typical gradient muting; interesting experiment more than anything. The basic concepts are very strong though so a betting educated one would probably be less impressed with recurving TC this early in the summer.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have seen the bevy of overnight guidance. It appears there is finally some consensus emerged on repositioning the warm core or the ridge to over the eastern cordillera ...perhaps as far east as the MA region in time, perferrably D5.5-10. Up through D5, there are detail differences. The 00Z ECM for example, although it temporarily lowers heights over the NE CONUS D4-5, it doesn't really bring much of any fropa along with it. Per course the gradient at the sfc offers SW, then a "col" interval, then back to SW as the by then extended range cooker gets under way. Meanwhile, the CMC has an interval of substantive ml confluence over eastern Man./western Ontario D3 leading ....resulting in a substantial summer polar high and cfropa for the NE states. These two runs appear on the extreme sides of the envelope. That unfortunately puts us in the unsavory position of having to give the compromised GFS a nod for a period of time that is D4 through 6; scary I know. Anyway, this solution offers a fropa that is muted some over the CMC version, and also is keeping with seasonal trends.

Teleconnectors are of little use right now, offering limited or no corrective measure. The NAO is utterly neutral for 2 weeks at CDC, and CPC prognostics have the NAO going positive, but not really until D10 - which is outside the lead for this outlook. The PNA is strongly negative through the period, but again...that index bears less meaningful indicator on the field in mid summer. This all makes us "hidden trend" reliant with the operational and ensemble means, combined. That pretty much brings us back to the consensus appeal.

For that I am above 50% at this point that a potent interval of heat may unfortunately finally succeed where prior to this season there has been more than just a few model cycles that have hinted. The deep layer ridge (that has taken on thermal feebacks) will likely weaken while it becomes transient, and then when it comes to rest further E around D7-8 it may very well resurge to the N side of 594dm heights. That will probably tug along with it some of that airs making media in the heartland, and perhaps some EML/Sonoran ejecta for good measure. I won't go higher probability-wise as this season's penchants for troughing backing down some from the Maritimes could still off-set that ridge migration east.

More nocturnal ejecta by those naughty Sonorans, I see.

Vim Toot!

[tamarack]

Ugh on big heat.

I've been in it many places and times but the standout for me in NE was 8/78 in Falmouth, MA where a terrible heat wave got us to 102f.

That crap has no business up here. I'll never forget the ecstacy of the afternoon back door cold front passage that ended our misery. Oh what joy that was!

I hope Ginx' recurving typhoon saves us.

PS- I pity the Baltimorean pilgrims. What an awful heat sink that place is.

Torrid greasy air composed of beaten smut molecules staining throats and lungs. Streaks of ooze pulsing from poisoned pores.

A gooey miasma coating weenies from their dingy black-socked sandaled feet to their sodden and clingy Oscar Mayer steamed weiner tees.

Those weenies are gonna look like the inedible red dogs Eastern Mainers keep for days in steam cabinets at road-side gas stations.

Burnt as red as a Downeast Maine frank and, just as tasteless!

Have fun.

Vim Toot!

Almost 100% agreed, emphatically! Just a nitpick on the boldface, as I think it's off by 3 yr. Boston recorded 102/83 on 8/2/1975 ("Hot Saturday") and then the bd came thru the next day. I found nothing hotter than 93 for 8/1978 in Boston, with no next day bd evidence.

That day, 8/2/75, is probably my hottest wx experienced - my NNJ records are gone so I don't know how hot it was at my place on 7/3/1966 when NYC was 103 and LGA 107. New England's record high temp of 107 was set that hot Saturday, at 2 MA stations. (Trivia: One of those, Chester, also holds the state's all time coldest, -35 in Jan. 1981.) We had 102 in BGR (and we visited BHB that day, where it was 101 with toes in saltwater) and that evening's forecast was for another near-100 day on Sunday. What a relief to awake in cloudy misty 70F, as the bd had reached us during the wee hrs.

Check that Boston temp for 8/2/75 to see the worst part of Baltimore under h85 temps at 26C - 80+ minima. To quote Vim Toot: Ugh on big heat. (And especially on hot sticky overnight wx.)

[Arnold214]

Taking bets on 5h over 0C/600Dm !!!!!

I was just taking a look at the ECMWF for Friday the 22nd, and it has 585dm thicknesses from DC up through BOS. That is extraordinarily high. That's 100-105F for a relatively wide area as long as low level winds and mixing cooperate.

[Mica Vim Toot]

Have fun there.

Vim Toot!

[weatherMA]

According to him it will be cool with highs in the 70's.

West Chesterfield, the only place where its somehow always below normal and cool. Amazing how that can happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

I was just taking a look at the ECMWF for Friday the 22nd, and it has 585dm thicknesses from DC up through BOS. That is extraordinarily high. That's 100-105F for a relatively wide area as long as low level winds and mixing cooperate.

Dews in the 70-75 range ? That equals quite a few deaths

[Cold Miser]

Does anyone remember Pete's high last year?

I don't remember what his high was, but I'm pretty sure he was getting snow a few times in July or August while the rest of us low landers were metling.

[Mica Vim Toot]

Almost 100% agreed, emphatically! Just a nitpick on the boldface, as I think it's off by 3 yr. Boston recorded 102/83 on 8/2/1975 ("Hot Saturday") and then the bd came thru the next day. I found nothing hotter than 93 for 8/1978 in Boston, with no next day bd evidence.

That day, 8/2/75, is probably my hottest wx experienced - my NNJ records are gone so I don't know how hot it was at my place on 7/3/1966 when NYC was 103 and LGA 107. New England's record high temp of 107 was set that hot Saturday, at 2 MA stations. (Trivia: One of those, Chester, also holds the state's all time coldest, -35 in Jan. 1981.) We had 102 in BGR (and we visited BHB that day, where it was 101 with toes in saltwater) and that evening's forecast was for another near-100 day on Sunday. What a relief to awake in cloudy misty 70F, as the bd had reached us during the wee hrs.

Check that Boston temp for 8/2/75 to see the worst part of Baltimore under h85 temps at 26C - 80+ minima. To quote Vim Toot: Ugh on big heat. (And especially on hot sticky overnight wx.)

I'll bet you're right, Hackmatack. Hindsight is a blurry lens.

Yes, Blizzy, I typed "hindsight" which in your case is obstructed by material containing less than 1% chicken parts (beaks, feet, crops) and red dye.

Vim Toot!

[Typhoon Tip]

The more I look at this the more unique this is appearing

interesting

[Arnold214]

Dews in the 70-75 range ? That equals quite a few deaths

dehydrated conference goers.

[OSUmetstud]

dehydrated conference goers.

less medical drama this year would be a welcomed change.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll bet you're right, Hackmatack. Hindsight is a blurry lens.

Yes, Blizzy, I typed "hindsight" which in your case is obstructed by material containing less than 1% chicken parts (beaks, feet, crops) and red dye.

Vim Toot!

You should saunter on into one of our GTG's. It would be fun to hoot hoot with Vim Toot

[tamarack]

I'll bet you're right, Hackmatack. Hindsight is a blurry lens.

Yes, Blizzy, I typed "hindsight" which in your case is obstructed by material containing less than 1% chicken parts (beaks, feet, crops) and red dye.

Vim Toot!

Once the product has too much "real meat" in it (and not enough preservative), it no longer meets the USDA standard and thus cannot be sold as "hot dogs". Ain't bureaucracy wunnerful?

Hackmatack is the coolest of nicknames for the (to be botanically precise) Eastern larch. I chose the more familiar label as my nom de forum. However, the PQ French (and St. John Valley) offer the tree's most confusing name, epinette rouge, or "red spruce", which is the English name for an entirely different species (which happens to be the most commercially important tree species in Maine.)

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL already 82..Dry ground makes such a huge difference now. Off to the torches. Wondr if tomorrow and Sunday might hit or exceed 90 now

[Mr Torchey]

BDL already 82..Dry ground makes such a huge difference now. Off to the torches. Wondr if tomorrow and Sunday might hit or exceed 90 now

I enjoyed the one day cool down of 84 yesterday. I wonder how the ice ******* will spin next weeks torchathon?

[Logan11]

That period in the Summer of '75 was certainly obnoxiously hot. I was a young kid and I hung out in a hay loft a lot of the time helping my Dad take bales of hay off the elevator - seemingly unaffected by the 100F dusty air in there. Today I would probably asphyxiate or die of heat prostration.

I think these childhood memories feed the nostalgia for HHH summer wx in some people. It didn't bother you as a kid and you are socialized to expect that kind of thing in an American summer. But seriously anything over about 80F with humidity is really not pleasant except for Joe in Coastal CT.

I'll bet you're right, Hackmatack. Hindsight is a blurry lens.

Yes, Blizzy, I typed "hindsight" which in your case is obstructed by material containing less than 1% chicken parts (beaks, feet, crops) and red dye.

Vim Toot!

[Tropopause_Fold]

I was just taking a look at the ECMWF for Friday the 22nd, and it has 585dm thicknesses from DC up through BOS. That is extraordinarily high. That's 100-105F for a relatively wide area as long as low level winds and mixing cooperate.

yeah even the 2-m temps are in the mid 90s...yesterday 12z was even like 95-100F at 2-m for a good chunk of sne. good signal for 100+ if it were to actually come to fruition. some days those 2-m temps are a solid 10F below reality depending upon locale.

[Mr Torchey]

That period in the Summer of '75 was certainly obnoxiously hot. I was a young kid and I hung out in a hay loft a lot of the time helping my Dad take bales of hay off the elevator - seemingly unaffected by the 100F dusty air in there. Today I would probably asphyxiate or die of heat prostration.

I think these childhood memories feed the nostalgia for HHH summer wx in some people. It didn't bother you as a kid and you are socialized to expect that kind of thing in an American summer. But seriously anything over about 80F with humidity is really not pleasant except for Joe in Coastal CT.

You think I am the only person in New England who enjoys summer? I understand this is a 99.99% SNOW board, but Rick, come back to reality man. Hope we can hit 100 next week, that would make me happy, can lose the final 5 lbs over the next 14 days before two weeks on the beach in South Carolina./ HI values down there have been 100-110 lately with excessive humidity, cant wait to get back home.

Back to work, I need a sweater today, its chilly.

[Ginx snewx]

Not likely that typhoon will have that much impact in the ides of summer, when the gradient everywhere is too weak to trigger a response. That works better in the autumn/winter, when the hemispheric geopotential medium is on the decline. Gradient is needed in order for the physical interplay between thermal sources and sinks around the globe to have an effect on R-wave numbers. In mid July to about September 1, there really isn't enough gradient around to suffice that effect.

It's another reason why so many of the teleconnectors (WPO, EPO, PNA...etc.) have less correlation on the flow in summer when compared to the same standard deviation in mid winter. Yet another way to look at it is the 101 Synoptic Met discussion point(s) about wave lengths shrinking in summer; what that is really all about is weakened gradient causing the flow to differentiate toward nebulous - though not outright of course. Local-scaled anomalies take proxy in creating the warm and cold nodes, to go along with disconnected regions of westerlies, creating more granularity in anomalies.

That all said, we do have anomalous gradients for summer though - particular to this year. So perhaps all is not lost? We'll have to see how the in situ environment begins to respond to that, because the flow over the top of the ridge nodes around the hemisphere appears to be anomalously fast. This may very well be a stubborn -AO interacting with the seasonal migration N of subtropical ridge strength in the means. That "might" off-set the more typical gradient muting; interesting experiment more than anything. The basic concepts are very strong though so a betting educated one would probably be less impressed with recurving TC this early in the summer.

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Guess you missed the last recurve and the subsequent cool down which led to a below normal June for most parts.

[Ginx snewx]

yeah even the 2-m temps are in the mid 90s...yesterday 12z was even like 95-100F at 2-m for a good chunk of sne. good signal for 100+ if it were to actually come to fruition. some days those 2-m temps are a solid 10F below reality depending upon locale.

BDL breaks 100 Shore Shore Beaches 85

[Ginx snewx]

I was just taking a look at the ECMWF for Friday the 22nd, and it has 585dm thicknesses from DC up through BOS. That is extraordinarily high. That's 100-105F for a relatively wide area as long as low level winds and mixing cooperate.

Hopefully it continues it's haphazard 7 day lead forecast error.

[Tropopause_Fold]

check the philly thread - am19psu has a good couple of posts about the recurve.

[Tropopause_Fold]

BDL breaks 100 Shore Shore Beaches 85

yeah depends on the flow i guess. i'd welcome 85 over 100 anyday...if it's WSW or W or WNW it'll cook right to the shore - and right now it has that look.

[Arnold214]

Hopefully it continues it's haphazard 7 day lead forecast error.

All the models have the heat ridge shifting from the plains toward the mid atlc around day 7...it's just a matter of timing I think...probability of occurrence is pretty high unless a backdoor sitation arises in the WNW flow regime.

[HimoorWx]

Heading to the outer cape for a week on Friday the 22nd. Those 55-60 degree water temperatures might feel real good this year!!!