Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro is making the cooldown more aggressive and delaying the heatwave on the 12z run. It looks like it will still arrive, however. Doesn't match the ensembles. I'd plan on high heat Thurs-Sun...and the cooldown early next week being more of a dewpoint cooldown vs temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Doesn't match the ensembles. I'd plan on high heat Thurs-Sun...and the cooldown early next week being more of a dewpoint cooldown vs temps The 00z ensembles kept the worst of the heat in the Mid-Atlantic also. Let's see what the 12z ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro is making the cooldown more aggressive and delaying the heatwave on the 12z run. It looks like it will still arrive, however. yeah it's still warm but nothing like the previous 2 runs of century-mark heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Thousands will perish? No, it's just oscillating again toward least excuse imaginable to disrupt continuity... Doesn't look very trustworthy beyond D3 really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Fwiw, the boys/girls down at NCEP aren't too concerned: UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS OFFER ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF THE NEWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN. LATEST BLEND IS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF/AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM PRIOR PRELIM PROGS. STABLE PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FINAL PROGS UNNECESSARY. MEAN MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE PERISTENT MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE APPLACHNS LATER NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEAT INDICIES WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE NATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPLCHNS BY MONDAY AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD RETURNING TO COVER NEARLY ALL CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM MID NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPANSION OF H850 TEMP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 21C-24C WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS OF WARMEST MID LEVEL H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 24C WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION POOLING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION FROM SRN PA TO NERN GA GIVING THIS REGION THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CENTURY MARK TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 No, it's just oscillating again toward least excuse imaginable to disrupt continuity... Doesn't look very trustworthy beyond D3 really... Is the Euro typically this funky during the summer? Is it typical of all of the major models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Is the Euro typically this funky during the summer? Is it typical of all of the major models? I am not sure what the seasonal variation is, or if there is even one, but in general the ECM is as vagarious as the GFS beyond D5 with similar verification scores. This may have changed in the last year, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I am not sure what the seasonal variation is, or if there is even one, but in general the ECM is as vagarious as the GFS beyond D5 with similar verification scores. This may have changed in the last year, however. yeah that's the biggest thing - it's a day 6 -> forecast. all you can/should really do is look at the average of the last few runs, take them for what they are worth and then give more weight to the various ensembles packages. that said, the 12z gfs ensembles do want to shift the ridge north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z cmc is similar to the euro in moving a couple of fronts through next week and trying its best to keep the worst of the heat out of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z cmc is similar to the euro in moving a couple of fronts through next week and trying its best to keep the worst of the heat out of NE. Looks like God answered Kevin's prayers and will protect MRG's hair from any possible torch. Thanks Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks like God answered Kevin's prayers and will protect MRG's hair from any possible torch. Thanks Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Fwiw, the boys/girls down at NCEP aren't too concerned: UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS OFFER ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF THE NEWER 00Z ECMWF MEAN. LATEST BLEND IS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF/AND ENS MEANS OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM PRIOR PRELIM PROGS. STABLE PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FINAL PROGS UNNECESSARY. MEAN MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE PERISTENT MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE APPLACHNS LATER NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEAT INDICIES WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE NATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPLCHNS BY MONDAY AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD RETURNING TO COVER NEARLY ALL CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM MID NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPANSION OF H850 TEMP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 21C-24C WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS OF WARMEST MID LEVEL H850 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 24C WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION POOLING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION FROM SRN PA TO NERN GA GIVING THIS REGION THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CENTURY MARK TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN even they say "possibly new england" so it's not a forgone conclusion it gets here unabated. I think the forecast is much less tricky further south into the mid-Altantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference. AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again. i'll sit here and track it alone while all you fools party and have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again. I wonder how well the models take in the affects of that, seeing as it appears to be sorta theoretical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro ensembles are kind of unsure right now too. They have us on the edge of the heat...given the time frame (beyond day 7), we'll just have to see how it evolves as we get closer. Major torch though for BWI down at the conference. yeah they look like it would get hot after day 10. LOL. they are still very warm but not obscene heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i'll sit here and track it alone while all you fools party and have fun. I'm here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again. LOL..you and MRG are the only ones who don't think we see any heat next week..Everyone else is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i'll sit here and track it alone while all you fools party and have fun. Last year while I was in BWI there was a tornado warned storm IMBY, they even mentioned my street, there was rotation but nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I'm here as well There will be like 3 of us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 LOL..you and MRG are the only ones who don't think we see any heat next week..Everyone else is on board expect some heat for a couple of days Can you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Last year while I was in BWI there was a tornado warned storm IMBY, they even mentioned my street, there was rotation but nothing else. heavy heavy trees being bent over I so wish I was going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 even they say "possibly new england" so it's not a forgone conclusion it gets here unabated. I think the forecast is much less tricky further south into the mid-Altantic. Oh agree absolutely... Even I said I was just over 50/50 myself - this trough action in the Maritimes is a fickle beast. Seems to be having an affect locally regardless of the NAO, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 AMOUT, model errors increasing as typhoon recurves, expect some heat for a couple of days then troughiness returns while we absolutely bake in Bally, probably will miss a good severe outbreak again. Dude, you're just not going to listen to me are you? it's cool. But I never said before that it was impossible, I said it is less likely. Also, that issue in June may or may not have been caused by that... The NAO was plagued by negative values long before that typhoon recurved - I think that idea is overplayed particularly in the summer and I explained the conceptual meteorological reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Good gried - one can go in any direction in this AFD without threatening their safety for some reason: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Dude, you're just not going to listen to me are you? it's cool. But I never said before that it was impossible, I said it is less likely. Also, that issue in June may or may not have been caused by that... The NAO was plagued by negative values long before that typhoon recurved - I think that idea is overplayed particularly in the summer and I explained the conceptual meteorological reasoning. Not that I am not listening rather that I have read multiple papers that are contrary to your thoughts. There is a real effect on modeling and a real effect downstream, of course conceptually much more dramatic inducing high heat into a polar region in December but the effect to perturb the flow is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ah haha, I was just checking out some of the FRH grids for like DDC and OKC and holy hades on earth! Some of those locales have 592dm thickness THICKNESS, ...with T1'S of +37C ...Can you imagine some freak anomaly that grabbed that and pulled it downsloping into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Not that I am not listening rather that I have read multiple papers that are contrary to your thoughts. There is a real effect on modeling and a real effect downstream, of course conceptually much more dramatic inducing high heat into a polar region in December but the effect to perturb the flow is real. not in the summer - TRUST ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 not in the summer - TRUST ME. We will see but my thoughts are big trough in 10 days on the East Coast with cool weather, prior to that big severe outbreak across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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