ski MRG Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 80/60, a high of 81, a warm day with a mix of sun and clouds. Another summer day slips past without intolerable heat of humidity. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Well, we are starting to get closer, so maybe, just maybe it get one right. KFIT at 88F 80F here, high of 81 so far. td of 50F is pretty sweet. Kids are loving it. My son is at a camp this week and I have been trying to tell him how hot it could be. Tip, I was reading what you wrote earlier today wrt the system in the Maritimes to our NE... could that actually bring the heat in our area instead of blocking it? mmm not sure how, no. When folks speak of NW flow heat they are talking about ridge breaks. Basically, what happens is similar to the mid/high 90's day on May 28th, 2010. A ridge first amplified in the GLs and then lobbed over into NE as it was decaying - that action put the area in a deep layer NW flow from a source that contained oscene heat. I think "Hot Saturday" of August, 1975 was also a similar situation - that one was 105F at Providence RI (check that). But that all is different than a "blocking" sort of polar vortex. In this latter sense, the synoptic gradient is shearing the heat SE. There's really a kind of semi-permanent albeit difused warm boundary extending from western Ontario to NYC or thereabouts... I'm really on the fense with this because said Maritime trough is really anchored there by relatively higher heights NE in the far N atlantic Basin... Those are not even really blocking heights way up there - It's complicated but... The PNA is very negative, some -2SD or more. Typically, the PNA is less correlation on the field in summer - that's a given. However, I am wondering if an excessively negative or positive value may begin to exert. It's suppositional, admittedly, but it makes intuitive sense to me. If the wave lengths overall are shortened seasonally, which they are, and maybe this huge ridge in the heartland causing immense gradient to NE of ME is an artifact of a teminating -2SD PNA during shortened wave-lenghts. In the middle of winter, without an assist from the NAO (which is currently neutral), a -2SD PNA would split N/A with troughing west and ridging east, period. I was noticing that the PNA is relaxing its negative romp as this heat dome repositions east, while the NAO remains static. Interesting... Point being, in situ polar vortexes don't transport synoptic heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Treasure valley? 85/55 here...very nice...probably another day that goes in at +3 Shouldn't you be away at camp as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Shouldn't you be away at camp as well? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Had to fire up the sprinkler today for the first time. No rain in 8 days..and with a major death torch coming and me not being here to water later next..need to get the lawn some water. Looks like maybe BDL escaped 90 today. Barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Treasure valley? 85/55 here...very nice...probably another day that goes in at +3 Naww... Split Rock (and 1 night at Winocksett.).. last year when they were there they had a tornado warning and BOX folks went to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 mmm not sure how, no. When folks speak of NW flow heat they are talking about ridge breaks. Basically, what happens is similar to the mid/high 90's day on May 28th, 2010. A ridge first amplified in the GLs and then lobbed over into NE as it was decaying - that action put the area in a deep layer NW flow from a source that contained oscene heat. I think "Hot Saturday" of August, 1975 was also a similar situation - that one was 105F at Providence RI (check that). But that all is different than a "blocking" sort of polar vortex. In this latter sense, the synoptic gradient is shearing the heat SE. There's really a kind of semi-permanent albeit difused warm boundary extending from western Ontario to NYC or thereabouts... I'm really on the fense with this because said Maritime trough is really anchored there by relatively higher heights NE in the far N atlantic Basin... Those are not even really blocking heights way up there - It's complicated but... The PNA is very negative, some -2SD or more. Typically, the PNA is less correlation on the field in summer - that's a given. However, I am wondering if an excessively negative or positive value may begin to exert. It's suppositional, admittedly, but it makes intuitive sense to me. If the wave lengths overall are shortened seasonally, which they are, and maybe this huge ridge in the heartland causing immense gradient to NE of ME is an artifact of a teminating -2SD PNA during shortened wave-lenghts. In the middle of winter, without an assist from the NAO (which is currently neutral), a -2SD PNA would split N/A with troughing west and ridging east, period. I was noticing that the PNA is relaxing its negative romp as this heat dome repositions east, while the NAO remains static. Interesting... Point being, in situ polar vortexes don't transport synoptic heat. Thanks. Something to keep an eye on. I do remember Hot Saturday. My earliest wx memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Had to fire up the sprinkler today for the first time. No rain in 8 days..and with a major death torch coming and me not being here to water later next..need to get the lawn some water. Looks like maybe BDL escaped 90 today. Barely High of 82.1F here. Low td for most of the day. Currently 55F Just about as perfect a July wx day as you could ask for here 80.4 here attm How much is next weekend going to run you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Had to fire up the sprinkler today for the first time. No rain in 8 days..and with a major death torch coming and me not being here to water later next..need to get the lawn some water. Looks like maybe BDL escaped 90 today. Barely Perhaps its time to teach momma some man skills like turning on a sprinkler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Perhaps its time to teach momma some man skills like turning on a sprinkler? LOL..I wouldn't trust her to do any type of yard work..She would never drag the sprinkler around...and place it correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 High of 82.1F here. Low td for most of the day. Currently 55F Just about as perfect a July wx day as you could ask for here 80.4 here attm How much is next weekend going to run you? I have a couple hundred bucks of Marriot gift cards...I'll probably drop a few hundred bucks on gas, food and drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 I have a couple hundred bucks of Marriot gift cards...I'll probably drop a few hundred bucks on gas, food and drinks That's sweet! Trying to figure on a budget for next July... Reddick!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 That's sweet! Trying to figure on a budget for next July... Reddick!!! I won them from my last company in some sales contest and have had them for like 3 yrs. I called to check the balance on them the other day. Been waiting to stay in a Marriot where I could use them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 I won them from my last company in some sales contest and have had them for like 3 yrs. I called to check the balance on them the other day. Been waiting to stay in a Marriot where I could use them. And they can be used with the conf rate? No restrictions? That's great. How is the long term parking at BDL? I have never flown out of there before and we are going to park there Aug 1-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 And they can be used with the conf rate? No restrictions? That's great. How is the long term parking at BDL? I have never flown out of there before and we are going to park there Aug 1-10 I haven't flown in a couple yrs. but it used to be fine. Big lot,plenty of room, safe area...Plus it's a torch.area.how can you go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z Euro has mid 90s minimum on Thursday... Dry, deep layer west flow out of the thermal ridge; small pocket of 20C H850 air passing through at 12z likely signals a blazing afternoon. and it also shows a huge plume of erstwhile conintental heat getting ready to move into the NE states - stay tuned. 12z Euro has 2m temps in the 100s 18z Friday in the ASH-BED-TAN corridor. 850s still near +24C near the S Coast and +20C in N VT/NH. Hot stuff.Thu 18z has 2m temps of 95+ in the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z Euro has 2m temps in the 100s 18z Friday in the ASH-BED-TAN corridor. 850s still near +24C near the S Coast and +20C in N VT/NH. Hot stuff. Thu 18z has 2m temps of 95+ in the same areas. Yikes. Gonna be baking even at the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z Euro has 2m temps in the 100s 18z Friday in the ASH-BED-TAN corridor. 850s still near +24C near the S Coast and +20C in N VT/NH. Hot stuff. Thu 18z has 2m temps of 95+ in the same areas. What usually happens with temperatures and models as the time gets closer? Does the temp usually tend to go up a little bit or down a little. Or a better way of putting it is are temps more largely exaggerated further out from a certain time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z Euro has 2m temps in the 100s 18z Friday in the ASH-BED-TAN corridor. 850s still near +24C near the S Coast and +20C in N VT/NH. Hot stuff. Thu 18z has 2m temps of 95+ in the same areas. You are the bearer of fantastic and wonderful news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 12z Euro has 2m temps in the 100s 18z Friday in the ASH-BED-TAN corridor. 850s still near +24C near the S Coast and +20C in N VT/NH. Hot stuff. Thu 18z has 2m temps of 95+ in the same areas. TORCH!!!!>. Oh do I pray...Oh Lord give us strength . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 What usually happens with temperatures and models as the time gets closer? Does the temp usually tend to go up a little bit or down a little. Or a better way of putting it is are temps more largely exaggerated further out from a certain time frame? I think the Euro has a history of sometimes being too warm with the mid-level temps in the extended. Other times it has tried to advect the 22-24C stuff up our way and it ends up more like 20C. It's still kinda crazy to see a 100+ contour on the 2m temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 80/60, a high of 81, a warm day with a mix of sun and clouds. Another summer day slips past without intolerable heat of humidity. Nice. 89.4 imby and 88 at CEF. Lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 During my long run this morning this song came up on ipod..I had forgotten how well he flows on this song as I haven't heard it in a long time.. Not to mention it pumps you the hell up when you're exhausted http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEUktvwyfPQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I want what the 18z NAM is smoking. Holy crap that's a lot of rain. Just a little convective feedback there. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 18z GFS sort of hints at it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I think the Euro has a history of sometimes being too warm with the mid-level temps in the extended. Other times it has tried to advect the 22-24C stuff up our way and it ends up more like 20C. It's still kinda crazy to see a 100+ contour on the 2m temps though. I believe I've heard of this too - thing is, NCEP themselves were discussing the ECM's trough bias and lag correlation showing it to be to robust with it. I wonder how to reconcile those seemingly paradox statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 During my long run this morning this song came up on ipod..I had forgotten how well he flows on this song as I haven't heard it in a long time.. Not to mention it pumps you the hell up when you're exhausted http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEUktvwyfPQ I just did a 40 mile, ...it's already hot imo. I wound up pretty dehydrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think the Euro has a history of sometimes being too warm with the mid-level temps in the extended. Other times it has tried to advect the 22-24C stuff up our way and it ends up more like 20C. It's still kinda crazy to see a 100+ contour on the 2m temps though. Its had a warm bias in the medium range at 850mb, but its not horrible. I'm not sure what the stats are recently but I haven't heard about it going away. Anecdotally it seems to still have issues with bringing in those obscene 24C 850 temps from time to time and they never verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 89.4 imby and 88 at CEF. Lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.......... 68/58, I went down to the valley (Rt9 Hadley) the thermo in the car was reading 92 from Noho to Hadley. It was hot but the humidity didn't seem out of hand. Now that we've passed the halfway point of July I know even if a "death heat ridge" Set up over us it could only last so long. Working everyday in the sun has me acclimated to the summer conditions. The direct sun has already lost some of it's bite from the days around the solstice. Lots o' water, drink lot's o'water. Summer nights like this are pleasant enough. Nice 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 For Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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