Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalo00
    Newest Member
    Gonzalo00
    Joined

Mid July SNE Torch en route!


HoarfrostHubb

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well..this is what we've all been waiting and praying for. a huge death ridge where we torch for a week straight with high dews and high heat.. Enjoy it folks.

Dude, it has 98F for Thursday, 100 for Friday, and 99 for Saturday. For MOS to have that this far out is amazing. That's basically over 100F each day. My God.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, it has 98F for Thursday, 100 for Friday, and 99 for Saturday. For MOS to have that this far out is amazing. That's basically over 100F each day. My God.

100, 102, 100 at the DMH science center furnace downtown with 3 straight lows in the low 80s. lol Have fun guys.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

65/57, temp continues to slip back. Nice night.

I think your snow pack will be gone after this week... :lmao:

06z GFS would be amazing for tstm weenies. It places that front in a perfect position later this week for complexes to roll se.

These MCS' and the associated debris clouds may keep the temps cooler...like in the mid 90s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well even the euro ensembles torch us for a day of over +20C 850 temps. The whole 2 week period is above normal.

Interesting sentiment/observation. I just did the once over of the various free products and concluded with a high degree of confidence, regardless of whatever emergent reason to slip boundaries around and stop the best magnitude aside, it should in the least be a 10 day stretch of above normal temperatures. Obviously we saw this coming... Back on the 4th we made that thread about post Fourth looking summery - at the time, it was a matter of time before we arrived on the doorstop of this.

Quick comment: the 12, 18z, 00z and 06z runs starting yesterday morning, of the operational GFS, are subtly downplaying this. The model still builds/repositions the ridge to north side of 594dm and over the eastern OV/MA regions, but hammers the top of it like a relic of the -AO. Moreover, it's like an antsy 9 year-old squirming in its seat because it just can't wait to drill the whole pattern back to something like June in the extended now.

I have no idea whether that will happen or not (but suspect it is premature), but the result is a screaming mid lvl balanced geopotential wind field over some 60kts blowing quasi-zonally over the flattened top of the ridge across southern Canada, the northern tier and NE. That's a pretty solid discerned jet for mid July! The Euro on the other hand punches the 588dm contour N of BOS/BUF, allowing more unadulterated heat invasion and more like a standard summer heat model result. I just thought it important to point out those differences because a GFS verification would muddy the big heat signal in lieu of some transient convection and short duration relief intervals. The Euro ...heh, 102F at least one day at Logon probably... Wow, the 00z had at least one afternoon of +24C at 850mb over interior eastern SNE during that stretch, on a west wind with low cloud level RH. Could see that being 102/67 should that verify.

That all said, I don't think from a forecasting point of view this is a cut and dry period of assessment. There are reasons to see why the GFS solution (or the like) could plague. There are reasons to see why the Euro is right, when combined with NCEPs lag correlation study showing that heights overall have been too negative in SE Canada. The immediate terms - through Thursday morning - are going to be above normal anyway. We should easily crack 90 today, and may flirt tomorrow prior to some late fun. Then we get a 2-day DP reprieve, but with 850s still in that 16-17C range, we end up with dry heat on a light to variable NW wind that goes SW by late Wednesday as the frontalysis is complete and that little bubble high melds into the Bermuda like circulation. There could be some relief at Logan and shore areas as those wind types tend to bend onshore with day-time heating and the local Hadley cell. In that time obviously we'll get a better handle on what this "big" heat will mean for us.

For those going to Baltimore? ....one word, pain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...