Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 12z euro is going to evolve into a massive furnace i think after day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 12z euro is going to evolve into a massive furnace i think after day 6 70's for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 70's for everyone not if this is right. this on-again/off-again thing is getting old but this run looks very very warm late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I need to move to BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 not if this is right. this on-again/off-again thing is getting old but this run looks very very warm late next week 70+ heat related deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 not if this is right. this on-again/off-again thing is getting old but this run looks very very warm late next week Is it still showing Mon-Tues as warm? Upper 80s-low 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Is it still showing Mon-Tues as warm? Upper 80s-low 90s? yeah still fairly warm though pretty early fropa on tuesday... dear god what a ctblizz torch on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 cold front barrels through next weekend to end it, but 850s >24C next friday, >20C saturday on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 yeah still fairly warm though pretty early fropa on tuesday... dear god what a ctblizz torch on this run. Not long lasting though..3 day heat wave and then an overdone , overzealous Euro trough to end it..Would be a couple days of near 100 if correct though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Not long lasting though..3 day heat wave and then an overdone , overzealous Euro trough to end it..Would be a couple days of near 100 if correct though yeah if it's right it would be. 2-m temps 95-100 on friday in c/w ma, n ct/ e NYS, with dews 70-75...so it's definitely hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 yeah if it's right it would be. 2-m temps 95-100 on friday in c/w ma, n ct/ e NYS, with dews 70-75...so it's definitely hot. 103-105 in BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 not if this is right. this on-again/off-again thing is getting old but this run looks very very warm late next week nah, doesn't last all that long. This run is hot for 1.5 days then cool for 2, pretty much as a general theme right out to la la range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 103-105 in BWI Blackout makes hotel AC moot... sticking to the sheets... Wiz lying in his own sick... Sounds lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 72 at my house. Splendid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 nah, doesn't last all that long. This run is hot for 1.5 days then cool for 2, pretty much as a general theme right out to la la range. it's an absolute furnace friday/saturday of next week. who knows how it'll actually shake out but it's very hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 it's an absolute furnace friday/saturday of next week. who knows how it'll actually shake out but it's very hot. 80F for an overnight low at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 80F for an overnight low at BDL? 1000s may perish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 it's an absolute furnace friday/saturday of next week. who knows how it'll actually shake out but it's very hot. i don't know if this will mean anything but it's a good thing it is not winter... The only way the ECM gets away with those trough incursions is because the wave lengths are so shortened at this time of year. If the wave lengths were stretched to January tension than that ridge in the heart land would expand ENE - obviously not as 590dm heights but you get the drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 LOL BDL is still 79F at 3pm obs. One more chance at 4 to sneak in an 80, unless it happened inter-hour. 76/50 here...refreshing. Perfect running day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 80F for an overnight low at BDL? Didn't ORH come in last year with an overnight low of 80 or was that subsequently changed ? I do recall ORH_wxman vehemently challenging the accuracy of the reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Didn't ORH come in last year with an overnight low of 80 or was that subsequently changed ? I do recall ORH_wxman vehemently challenging the accuracy of the reading. The highest min I see from last summer is 77F. I do remember how out of whack that 80F reading was though compared to all the hilltop mesonet stations including where I was at winter hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 84/43 seasonable and dry perfect summer weather, great day outside working, now 4 days with the kids as mommy is on vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 while we bask in Canadian glory: ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD TOP 100 DEGREES AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SWELTERING HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS. * HEAT INDEX...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES ONLY COOLING TO AROUND 80. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. * IMPACTS...SEVERAL DAYS OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY... WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT...CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT STRESS ON INDIVIDUALS...AND WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. The more I look at this and back at things, this summer really is about huge amplitude across short spatial domains. We have -1SD along and just off the West Coast, and +3SD ridge in the heart land, and neutral negative SD locally that is apart of a stronger negative anomaly seemingly a permanent fixture NE of us. This static configuration is causing some pretty wierd gradients across the country. 110 in OK and 60 in ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 156 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011 VALID 12Z SUN JUL 17 2011 - 12Z THU JUL 21 2011 ...HEAT WAVE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND A BIT OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF NOW MOVE TEH WRN TROF BODILY OUT ACROSS CANADA...WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. BOTH THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND TROUGHING REMAINING NEAR THE WEST COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS CANADA WITHOUT WEAKENING THE RIDGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THROUGH MONDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. EXPECT THAT THE ERN CANADIAN TROF IS OVERDONE BY ECMWF AS INDICATED BY ENS MEANS AND IS A TYPICAL ECMWF BIAS. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THESE DIFFERENCES USING A BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS. Help me out here ... That same assumption was applied to today's trough translation and how well did that help? not much - came right on down this time. Guess that means that any ECM trough shouldn't be ignored. Or am I missing something - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 while we bask in Canadian glory: ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD TOP 100 DEGREES AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SWELTERING HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS. * HEAT INDEX...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES ONLY COOLING TO AROUND 80. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. * IMPACTS...SEVERAL DAYS OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY... WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT...CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT STRESS ON INDIVIDUALS...AND WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. The more I look at this and back at things, this summer really is about huge amplitude across short spatial domains. We have -1SD along and just off the West Coast, and +3SD ridge in the heart land, and neutral negative SD locally that is apart of a stronger negative anomaly seemingly a permanent fixture NE of us. This static configuration is causing some pretty wierd gradients across the country. 110 in OK and 60 in ME that's amazing stuff - even more so is that ridge is such a permanent feature right now - that 7 day forecast is basically a slam dunk. funny to think they are issuing that for 6 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 103-105 in BWI Hopefully 100+ around here also. Ive been reading about 850s around 25C here for days 7-11 so a 5 day stretch of extreme heat perhaps like what we saw last year in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well congrats Kevin on the warmest location in SNE, BDL....well Westfield too. Everyone else in the 70s. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well congrats Kevin on the warmest location in SNE, BDL....well Westfield too. Everyone else in the 70s. AWT. 74 for the high here...pretty big difference from HFD and BDL that are 80 and 81, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 73-74 for the Tolland glacier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well congrats Kevin on the warmest location in SNE, BDL....well Westfield too. Everyone else in the 70s. AWT. BOS 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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