Baroclinic Zone Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 In september put that quarter inch of finished compost spread across the lawn, you wont believe how much that will help, from looking at your pics it looked as though you had some compaction issues, perhaps a lot of clay?? Compost=Gold I wish I could but at this point I don't think it's in my budget. I may be able to aerate the hell out of the lawn but thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Oh, yes we can. And I did. Ha ha I agree with your sentiment, just don't want to jump the gun. I don't live in western Mass. after all, so we still have a reasonable chance to hit 90 for almost another two months down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 After last summer, this season has been refreshing. Next week could change my views, but I think it will be another muted furnace. Perhaps a year with no 90s for me... Loved waking to 53F... Perfect skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Meh, I got a deeper issue (pun intended) that needs to be taken care of with the soil. The lawn is clearly lacking in nutrients. I'm probably going to take some soil samples and have them tested. LESCO would solve all your problems. You need that for all the proper nutrients. I know you won't listen. But it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 6z GFS backs off the heat for SNE, mostly stays in the country's mid-section. Below average temperatures Wed/Thurs on this run with the 10C 850mb isotherm running near NYC, and then the long-range does hold promise of some bigger warmth, but it still looks evanescent, a glancing blow to the Northeast. All of a sudden, the latest model runs seem to be slipping in a cool shot mid-week, and trending towards a much more brief ridge in the long-range. The weakness over SE Canada/Quebec continues to get fronts through regardless of the technical modality of the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 6z GFS backs off the heat for SNE, mostly stays in the country's mid-section. Below average temperatures Wed/Thurs on this run with the 10C 850mb isotherm running near NYC, and then the long-range does hold promise of some bigger warmth, but it still looks evanescent, a glancing blow to the Northeast. All of a sudden, the latest model runs seem to be slipping in a cool shot mid-week, and trending towards a much more brief ridge in the long-range. The weakness over SE Canada/Quebec continues to get fronts through regardless of the technical modality of the NAO. euro does something similar driving a pretty potent cool shot in wed/thu of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 euro does something similar driving a pretty potent cool shot in wed/thu of next week. That might be the euro fetish of northeast troughing. I'm not so sure I by that drastic of a cooldown since the ensembles look much warmer, but I could see some sort of fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 euro does something similar driving a pretty potent cool shot in wed/thu of next week. Next week looks like almost a carbon copy of this week except maybe less cool of a cool shot . 2 days of heat and humidity Monday Tuesday..storms at some point either Tuesday or Wed..then a brief cooldown to normal and torch again a day or 2 later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 That might be the euro fetish of northeast troughing. I'm not so sure I by that drastic of a cooldown since the ensembles look much warmer, but I could see some sort of fropa. The trend in the last two runs of the GFS gave more support to the Euro, with the trough being deeper and more favorably positioned for below average temperatures in the Northeast. 6z GFS at 144: 0z GFS at 150, was weaker with the trough and further NE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Next week looks like almost a carbon copy of this week except maybe less cool of a cool shot . 2 days of heat and humidity Monday Tuesday..storms at some point either Tuesday or Wed..then a brief cooldown to normal and torch again a day or 2 later Pretty interesting pattern... At some point something has to break and nail us with a big torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 That might be the euro fetish of northeast troughing. I'm not so sure I by that drastic of a cooldown since the ensembles look much warmer, but I could see some sort of fropa. yeah tend to agree. you can see the front on the ensembles but it's not a dramatic shift in airmasses. i'm just glad the ridge is where it is. one or two day warm shots followed by relative cool downs is great. as long as that ridge axis stays where it's at, we should remain in this same kind of short-lived warm then cool then warm air mass deal as it's going to favor a weakness over E canada/northeast us. given the time of year and what's going on over the plains/midwest/south etc., it could be *a lot* worse here than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Pretty interesting pattern... At some point something has to break and nail us with a big torch... Maybe we never get an extended torch this year. maybe it just comes in short 2-3 day intervals like it';s done all summer. Big heat and humidityfor a few days and then a cool front..Though next weeks I have a feeling would be more of a dewpoint front.. similiar to the one that came thru on Tuesday this week. Yetserday BDL hit 89..butthe dew was much lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 In september put that quarter inch of finished compost spread across the lawn, you wont believe how much that will help, from looking at your pics it looked as though you had some compaction issues, perhaps a lot of clay?? Compost=Gold Really should be in the lawn thread---but what do you use to spread it? 66.0/53 working on the deck ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 yeah tend to agree. you can see the front on the ensembles but it's not a dramatic shift in airmasses. i'm just glad the ridge is where it is. one or two day warm shots followed by relative cool downs is great. as long as that ridge axis stays where it's at, we should remain in this same kind of short-lived warm then cool then warm air mass deal as it's going to favor a weakness over E canada/northeast us. given the time of year and what's going on over the plains/midwest/south etc., it could be *a lot* worse here than it is. Yeah truth my lie in between. I could be wrong, but I think the op runs are a bit too aggressive with that trough. Either way, biggest heat hopefully remains out to the west. We might even be close enough to get some over the top fun wrt tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yeah truth my lie in between. I could be wrong, but I think the op runs are a bit too aggressive with that trough. Either way, biggest heat hopefully remains out to the west. We might even be close enough to get some over the top fun wrt tstms. Looks like we'll miss out on some storms while we're in BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yeah truth my lie in between. I could be wrong, but I think the op runs are a bit too aggressive with that trough. Either way, biggest heat hopefully remains out to the west. We might even be close enough to get some over the top fun wrt tstms. The GFS was too aggressive with the cool-down this week as well; it was originally bringing the 10C contour south of NYC, signalling a more dramatic cool down with widespread lows in the 40s. Although we verified 2-3C warmer for the most part, the models had the correct idea that we would see a period of dry weather with crisp nights and much lower humidity. I think the consensus shown on the ECM/GFS for the cool-down next Weds/Thurs is fairly powerful, although it probably will end up being a slightly milder/weaker of a cold front than what is currently modeled. Having the big vortex so far south over Quebec means that the Northeast, especially NNE, shouldn't roast too much; if the low anomaly were sitting atop Greenland in a more classic +NAO position, then we might have more sustained and extreme heat. This way, we are pretty much guaranteed that some sort of cold front swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Looks like we'll miss out on some storms while we're in BWI Well you never know with those over the top complexes. They always love to move to the right. I wouldn't be shocked if something came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 LESCO would solve all your problems. You need that for all the proper nutrients. I know you won't listen. But it is what it is Well, I may head to LESCO to do my soil tests. I do not want to put any unnecessary chemicals into my lawn. I need to correct my crappy soil and there are plenty of organic ways to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yeah truth my lie in between. I could be wrong, but I think the op runs are a bit too aggressive with that trough. Either way, biggest heat hopefully remains out to the west. We might even be close enough to get some over the top fun wrt tstms. already having an OK season in that respect IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The GFS was too aggressive with the cool-down this week as well; it was originally bringing the 10C contour south of NYC, signalling a more dramatic cool down with widespread lows in the 40s. Although we verified 2-3C warmer for the most part, the models had the correct idea that we would see a period of dry weather with crisp nights and much lower humidity. I think the consensus shown on the ECM/GFS for the cool-down next Weds/Thurs is fairly powerful, although it probably will end up being a slightly milder/weaker of a cold front than what is currently modeled. Having the big vortex so far south over Quebec means that the Northeast, especially NNE, shouldn't roast too much; if the low anomaly were sitting atop Greenland in a more classic +NAO position, then we might have more sustained and extreme heat. This way, we are pretty much guaranteed that some sort of cold front swings through. Yeah I could see a fropa...no arguments there...just not so sure of a big cooldown like the GFS and Euro op runs have. But, perhaps they are correct with a 24-36 hr cooldown. We'll see. We're pretty far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 already having an OK season in that respect IMBY. I wish I took a pic of the sky this morning as I went into work. It looked like something from the tropics. TCU over the water as the sun was coming up. Tops of the clouds were illuminated....it was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yes, the Plains were hot in June/July 1980, and then it really spread east in August and became torrid. There was a brutal ridge centered over TX/OK that slowly bled farther north as the summer went on. I'm starting to notice the drop in daylight, can no longer work the garden comfortably at 9pm without a flashlight. We had way below normal temperatures last winter...what are you talking about? Dec was like -5F here. Without global warming, it would have been like -6F. Not sure what this "resident cold" is, sounds like hocus-pocus, we always warm as the NAO goes positive. You didn't read that right. I said nothing about extremes, or the behavior of extremes.... typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well 73 at BDL. Kevin might have me in this bet. I'll probably lose by a degree. We'll see...maybe some CU can pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I wish I took a pic of the sky this morning as I went into work. It looked like something from the tropics. TCU over the water as the sun was coming up. Tops of the clouds were illuminated....it was awesome. ha! was thinking the same thing when i was out walking my dog as the sky started to break up. fairly large towers, but a strange NE flow. it was like tradewinds in the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well 73 at BDL. Kevin might have me in this bet. I'll probably lose by a degree. We'll see...maybe some CU can pop up. I bet they'll be 78 or so by noon. The slowly add on a few thru the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 No armaggedon heat wave on the gfs through 240 hours. Although it's close and ...pretty bad from Litchfield Libations area south to the Mid Atlantic States. No question the last 2 cycles of the runs have completely about faced and abandoned the 3 day trend - interesting. We'll have to see how that plays; could still just be a temporary distraction but the D5+ is completelly and utterly different than said trend up until 00z - almost implying cold anomalies in the lower troposphere curling in from the N while heights try to break overtop. It's almost as though there are actual physical parameters embedded in the models to engineer reasons to keep it temporate in New England... wouldn't that be funny? Taken fwiw, usually big time continuity shifts are either a mistake or golden. One thing that is interetsing is that the region of negative anomalies associated with positive expression of the NAO is seems to be taking liberties in both the ECM and GFS in the late middle range. If that is going to be corrected it would probably do so within a run or two. But as is? These charts wouldn't touch 90 until June of 2012, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 No question the last 2 cycles of the runs have completely about faced and abandoned the 3 day trend - interesting. We'll have to see how that plays; could still just be a temporary distraction but the D5+ is completelly and utterly different than said trend up until 00z. Taken fwiw, usually big time continuity shifts are either a mistake or golden. One thing that is interetsing is that the region of negative anomalies associated with positive expression of the NAO is seems to be taking liberties in both the ECM and GFS in the late middle range. I think the +NAO coming up is positioned in a way that keeps us out of the strongest ridging. The big vortex associated with the positive NAO gets far enough south into Quebec to swing a front through and keep lower heights to our northeast, so we never get into the core of the ridge that's been tormenting the Plains. It's sort of like 93-94 when we had a raging +NAO but it was a favorable one with a monster cold PV sitting over Hudson Bay and bleeding in low-level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I bet they'll be 78 or so by noon. The slowly add on a few thru the afternoon I could see 80 or 81 perhaps. If that happens....it's truly a hell hole pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Looks like we'll miss out on some storms while we're in BWI MBY was tornado warned while I was at BWI last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I could see 80 or 81 perhaps. If that happens....it's truly a hell hole pit. LOL..This is the first time in weeks where I think we're going to see them overperform..It's all tied into the ground and soil moisture. I didn';t think yesterday would hit 89. We've finally dried out the ground in CT..so now they can start baking like they did last year. there was just too much water in the ground in June/early July. Yesterday was the first time mowing that I noticed the tractor was kicking up a bit of dust. I think 82-83 today is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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