NaoPos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It looks like the lwx arw and nnm 4w have some interesting stuff between 2-5pm. Care to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 15 hail/wind 2 tor on 1630 OTLK... disco favors cold pools and damaging wind threat... development off lee trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... INITIAL AREA OF LIKELY CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE LEE TROUGH FROM PA TO VA WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS INITIATION WITHIN A VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MID LEVEL STRONGER FLOW WILL BE INCREASING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER S INTO CAROLINAS HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD POOLS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE STORMS FURTHER W AND THEN MOVE INTO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITY OVER CAROLINAS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES OF 25KT OR SO SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS THRU THE EVENING GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Cu field forming over the mountains... just a matter of time (1-2 hours?) before stuff starts going out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Cant seem to post an image but this is the site. However they dont really show much for your areahttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_arw4n/wrf.php hh Care to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Care to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Good if you are west of I95 tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 So far nothing. Hopefully it gets going in the next 1-2hrs. Or it's another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/MD/VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221803Z - 222000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TERRAIN AND INVOF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 30-35 KTS...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MATURE AND COLD POOLS MERGE IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS PER AREA VWP DATA/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 edit: too slow (see above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 edit: too slow (see above) Love the part increase in coverage. Well one storm would be an increase at this point. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 edit: too slow (see above) Even I was too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Love the part increase in coverage. Well one storm would be an increase at this point. lol stop being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 stop being a Look who's talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Look who's talking. meh. i've been mostly on this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Sun out, temp is 90 and humid. Some cloud cover and a slight breeze. Hoping for some rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 This little cell has blown up the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Mostly clear skies over here. Storms started to build up this time yesterday, but it doesn't seem that is going to happen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 232 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BUT MAY NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SO FAR...CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING AND LESS THAN EVEN SHORT-RANGE MODELS EARLIER TODAY INDICATED. THIS IS...AS WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT EARLIER...DUE TO THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE SUPPRESSED HEATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT MORE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE FAVORED AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY SHORT...BUT SOME TORRENTIAL RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE...BUT PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TONIGHT BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THOUGH IT IS A BIT HARDER TO FIND A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN A VERY SIMILAR AIRMASS...I ALMOST HAVE TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN. ALSO WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT EARLIER THAN TODAY...GIVING ACTIVITY MORE TIME TO FIRE AND ORGANIZE. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CNVCTN SHUD DIURNALLY WANE THU NGT...THO CLOSER TO SFC BNDRY ACRS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS CHC POPS WILL BE CONTD OVNGT. FRI SFC CDFNT DRAGS THRU MID-ATLC AS UPR TROF AXIS APPROACHES FROM WEST. FAVORABLE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL DEEP LYR SHEAR...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG/SVR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURG THE AFTN/EVE. WITH BNDRY IN VCNTY FRI NGT...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS...AND CONT THEM INTO SAT AS UPR TROF GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD INTO SE CANADA. TEMPS SHUD RMN ABV NRML THRU FRI NGT...BUT FROPA SHUD ALLOW FOR DROP IN TEMPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 stacked lows suck -- instead of one crappy day of storm chances we get it strung out over several Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 stacked lows suck -- instead of one crappy day of storm chances we get it strung out over several I was hoping for just a storm not even severe. Can't even seem to get that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Anyone thinks the line connects from MI to the gulf? See some stuff popping up in that area. Probably not but, it's could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yup, its 330 and my roof is still on the house. Bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Anyone thinks the line connects from MI to the gulf? See some stuff popping up in that area. Probably not but, it's could happen. You should read a surface map every once in awhile.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Anyone thinks the line connects from MI to the gulf? See some stuff popping up in that area. Probably not but, it's could happen. I'm sorry, you're a forecaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm sorry, you're a forecaster? Yea, so there is a front there doesn't mean it's going to make for a strong line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 You should read a surface map every once in awhile.. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif I'm sorry, you're a forecaster? You guys are subverting the effectiveness of my ignore list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well that answers my question. lol. Guess if we will get anything it will be from this stuff late if it holds together. http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1359.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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