Psalm 148:8 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I got zippo yesterday...looked like a nice little storm on the tail end gonna get me....heard the thunder....and poof....died right on my property line.....not a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...SERN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 510... VALID 191251Z - 191445Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 510 CONTINUES. THE LARGE BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL KY CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AT 35-40 KNOTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A PRE-EXISTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS COOLED/STABILIZED THE REGION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVER MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE BOW TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND MAY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY BY MID MORNING. PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..HART.. 06/19/2011 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 I got zippo yesterday...looked like a nice little storm on the tail end gonna get me....heard the thunder....and poof....died right on my property line.....not a drop. If I got a zippo at least I would have gotten something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 If I got a zippo at least I would have gotten something. that one out run support, like so many this season the impulses are at their peak around the TN valley, but since we're entering a new pattern , or on the cusp of a pattern change, most likely eastern and central NC gets some storms today. probably tomorrow as well. The ridge is starting to build now to the south and sw, so that would favor central NC esp the next few days, if anyone gets it, but eventually the ridge will shut down most activity for a few days. The models have the intensity of todays wave holding together nicely for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Happy Slight Risk Sunday! Oh yeah and umm Happy Fathers Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 that one out run support, like so many this season the impulses are at their peak around the TN valley, but since we're entering a new pattern , or on the cusp of a pattern change, most likely eastern and central NC gets some storms today. probably tomorrow as well. The ridge is starting to build now to the south and sw, so that would favor central NC esp the next few days, if anyone gets it, but eventually the ridge will shut down most activity for a few days. The models have the intensity of todays wave holding together nicely for your area. I'm staying positive for something to fall out of the sky this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 heavy rain in the central and northern Mtns this morning spilling into the foothills just to my north. Even a flood warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Storms all around. Lots of wind and rain with lightning... Heavy line just moved through. Very dark. Temp at 68. Half inch already and raining hard again. Happy Daddy Day...... Here's a pic of Hickory Nut Falls in Chimney Rock from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looking at the model data this morning, I think the next 10 days could end up being very beneficial for a good portion of the Southeast US...The Southern Applachian Region is going to rack up some decent rainfall totals over the next 24 hours. Monday and Tuesday are going to be hot for IMBY, but that allows the storm track, as Robert has stated, to shift into the Central and Eastern Carolina Region and Southern Virginia. Come Wednesday the ridge totally breaks down and we get our first true tap of the summer into some Gulf tropical moisture...these 850 charts with the PWAT"s show that very well as we get into Wednesday and beyond... On top of this is the GFS and its consistancy of wanting to form a tropical system Day 7 in the Western Gulf...the general trend in model runs is to bring it north and pulled into the westerlies...this morning's 6z run in particular brought a 1007 mb low ashore along the MS/AL coast and brings it into the interior southeast by Day 10... At this time the details are nowhere near pinned down but the general pattern in the last 10 days of this month IMO suggests someone is going to benefit greatly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 heavy rain in the central and northern Mtns this morning spilling into the foothills just to my north. Even a flood warning Got about a half an inch this morning by estimating with more to come out of Kentucky. Morristown's radar is down for the time being so I'm using the radar out of Jackon, Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looking at the model data this morning, I think the next 10 days could end up being very beneficial for a good portion of the Southeast US...The Southern Applachian Region is going to rack up some decent rainfall totals over the next 24 hours. Monday and Tuesday are going to be hot for IMBY, but that allows the storm track, as Robert has stated, to shift into the Central and Eastern Carolina Region and Southern Virginia. Come Wednesday the ridge totally breaks down and we get our first true tap of the summer into some Gulf tropical moisture...these 850 charts with the PWAT"s show that very well as we get into Wednesday and beyond... On top of this is the GFS and its consistancy of wanting to form a tropical system Day 7 in the Western Gulf...the general trend in model runs is to bring it north and pulled into the westerlies...this morning's 6z run in particular brought a 1007 mb low ashore along the MS/AL coast and brings it into the interior southeast by Day 10... At this time the details are nowhere near pinned down but the general pattern in the last 10 days of this month IMO suggests someone is going to benefit greatly... Yes the GFS is showing a Bermuda ridge with troughing to our west, which usually allows ample Gulf inflow, which is actually very normal for the Southeast average flow...meaning, typical abundant scattered PM storms on a daily basis, scattered. Of course not every one gets a storm each day. I haven't seen last nights runs yet but it was showing a chance for the northern trough to leave the southern boundary washing out in the Southeast or lower Miss. Valley, that would be good news if it happened, as any moisture in the Gulf would have a chance to slowly work inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 My main concern today is the current renmant MCS in Western NC. Will it regenerate or inhibit severe chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Just stepped outside to see the storm to my north, and got surprised to watch another gust front come right at me. Had around 30mph gusts with that, which I wasn't expecting. This line may get stronger east so watch out Gaston to Meck and Lincoln for a surprising little gust front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I doubt this line will be stronger. It's already raining in the mountains so conditions are not right thermodynamically for the MCS to cross. And it's already raining east of the mountains so the atmosphere will not be as unstable as yesterday for rapid reformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Just stepped outside to see the storm to my north, and got surprised to watch another gust front come right at me. Had around 30mph gusts with that, which I wasn't expecting. This line may get stronger east so watch out Gaston to Meck and Lincoln for a surprising little gust front. The winds really picking up here too, looks like part of it in Rutherford county is strengthening a little and coming this way. Nevermind, it actually weakened, hoping to squeeze a little out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Flash Flood Watch just went up for all of Northeast TN, SW VA and the mountains of NC. Widespread 1-2 inches of rain and locally 2-4 inches was mentioned in the watch through tonight. Good amount of lightning too with this complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I ended up picking up 0.40 yesterday with that line of storms. Should have had much more as several storms formed ahead of the line and barely missed me while the storm cell within the line that was heading for me fell apart before getting here. Still it was a very enjoyable experience. I was able to witness a run of the mill cumulus evolve extremely rapidly to a full blown t-storm. It was amazing watching the leading edge of the cell and seeing the multiple swirls/updrafts. It ended up producing quite a bit of wind but nothing severe. Although some areas around me have seen a lot more, I'm damn grateful to get what I have gotten the last few days. Good discussion from ffc this morning. As they noted with cape between 3500 and 4500 and li's of -7 to 10, we will see some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Another crazy day at GSP yesterday. I think that makes for 8 crazy days so far this year. lol. Ferril tho...420 SVRs issued this year, compared to 173 at this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 My main concern today is the current renmant MCS in Western NC. Will it regenerate or inhibit severe chances? I was wondering the same thing. There seems to be some clearing going on between these two systems, but with all of that rain cooled air sitting over the mountains and foothills right now that what destabilization we do get will just be enough get isolated severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Light rain with some thunder rolling around. 73.3 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I ended up with 0.17 inches out of this morning's little disturbance that rolled through. The sun is trying to peek through the clouds, but it can't quite seem to make it. Current temp is 68 over a dew point of 67. Next batch of rain seems to just be reaching the mountains now. In an early morning AFD, GSP seemed to mention the possibility of another MCS passing through during the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 MCS starting to flare up a little as it hits the western slopes of the mountains...warning now out for Greene, Unicoi, Carter and Washington Counties in Tennessee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Knoxville/Tri cities radar just went down "000NOUS64 KMRX 191346FTMMRXMessage Date: Jun 19 2011 13:46:24 KMRX DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ETS NOTIFIED. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like the stratiform rains to the west won't hinder things too much ahead of the MCV coming out of TN. In fact NWS suggests it will just result in more available moisture if anything. DCAPES look good for some good downbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Skies have almost completely cleared in the past 45 minutes...just some high overcast but the sun is starting to warm things up a little. The next line is about 30 minutes away from dropping down the escarpment...will be interesting to see if it picks up a little steam shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Skies have almost completely cleared in the past 45 minutes...just some high overcast but the sun is starting to warm things up a little. The next line is about 30 minutes away from dropping down the escarpment...will be interesting to see if it picks up a little steam shortly thereafter. Sun's breaking through here in Charlotte too. Just some very thin high clouds remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 I hope I am wrong but I'm writing this one off... Need to go out an water the gardens, again... or just let them die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Knoxville/Tri cities radar just went down "000NOUS64 KMRX 191346FTMMRXMessage Date: Jun 19 2011 13:46:24 KMRX DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ETS NOTIFIED. " Yes, and it's been a pain ever since trying to track this current wave of rain. MRX issued an SVW for a line that looked impressive on Jackson's radar but honestly was nothing more than a 30 MPH gust and heavy rain. It's rained all morning, very heavy at times, but I'm without a weather station or even a rain gauge at the moment so I have no way of knowing how much has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I hope I am wrong but I'm writing this one off... Need to go out an water the gardens, again... or just let them die. Someone will get some rain... Mesoscale Discussion 1293< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191723Z - 191830Z STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY FROM SRN KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND SPREAD ESEWD WITH TIME. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW LIKELY NEEDED SOON. POTENT VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN KY INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES LIKELY FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SPEED MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM KY INTO THE TN VALLEY. BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2011 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 One more Mesoscale Discussion 1294< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...CNTRL/SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191729Z - 191830Z A THREAT OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 17Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER NC/SC...THOUGH A LEADING VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO ERN KY/TN...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD...AND WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR SWRN NC SSEWD INTO CAE...THEN EWD TO NEAR ILM. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A TEMPORARILY WEAKENING MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING INTO FAR WRN TN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INITIALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG FROM GA INTO SC. GIVEN MODEST WLY FLOW...AS CONVECTION BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...EWD PROGRESSING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ..HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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