buckeyefan1 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 CAE, as usual, doesn't seem impressed AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 404 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.75 INCHES COMPARED TO AROUND AN INCH THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS OF OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL MOVE ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INCREASE EXCEPT NEAR LIKELY POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 South-East Tennessee/South-West North Carolina/North Georgia Area ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for Polk County... At 438 PM EDT... a tornado was reported. This tornado was located near Archville... or 10 miles east of Benton... moving east at 30 mph. The tornado will be near... Ducktown around 455 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Moving fast just .40 in the bucket but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like lots of outages south of here. We missed the strong stuff again (good thing too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 First part is up. You would think nothing like what I just got through experiencing ever happened by watching this video. Just your average eerily calm environment before a storm whips up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theodometer Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Not much to report here in Rock Hill. Winds probably got heaviest with the gust front--maybe up to 40. With the actual line of storms, winds might have gotten to 35 or so. Steady rain-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Just like Robert said earlier about hearing the wind come,I heard the samething.There is a wooded area behind my house and I heard trees popping before the wind actually hit me.CRAZY!!!!Only had a few bursts of wind before the rain came.Right now just a steady rain and light wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Went to Stormfest in Raleigh today. What a neat event. Met eyewall, many NWS mets (including Gail H :wub) and other tv mets in the area. Also ther were lots of booths for other entities involved with other weather . disaster related activities. Also saw Adam French's Vortex2 talk. Interesting stuff. Next year we have to all meet there and see the sights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Tried to figure out how to imbed (bah!) so here's the link. Nothing like debris in the mouth. My link Oh..maybe 50+ mph winds. Big limbs in backyard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like lots of outages south of here. We missed the strong stuff again (good thing too) my power went out and back for about 10 times over an hour's course...never seen it flicker so many times, and that was after the storm had passed. Many people are still without power. The momentum of these downslope driven microbursts is just amazing this year. I've never seen anything like it, and without a doubt the last 6 months has brought the most impressive stretch of weather here that I can ever recall. Everything has happened (but major ice and hurricane). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Up next, the GA folks. The line is starting to get its act together, so far the cells are spaced but the line will probably consolidate soon. Its moving fast, so expect some wind , esp. once the line consolidates. All the wind events here have come just before the storm arrived, with a strong gust front. The more "bowed" the line is , the worse the winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Been raining on and off for about the past half hour. I've seen two beautiful cloud to ground lightning strikes that were about 2 miles away. The line is about 30 minutes away... I'll see if I can grab some video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 A little disippointed here. Winds only reached around 30mph with brief heavy rains and almost no lightning. Have 0.22" in the bucket for today but 0.08" of that came from an early morning shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 After several days of afternoon thunderstorms a couple of weeks ago, it's been back to the drought for us in Baton Rouge, LA. We need some rain. Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Measured a 41mph gust.....and only .05" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ready for my 2 drops, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I was at the Taste of Scotland Festival in Franklin this afternoon and we had an awesone looking storm come by. It also managed to blow some tents over. This is video I shot when I realized the tents were gonna go. And here are a couple of shots I took of the clouds: This is the storm coming in from the north. And this is looking east before the winds hit. No one was injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ready for my 2 drops, please... I just went out and watered the gardens ---again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 I was at the Taste of Scotland Festival in Franklin this afternoon and we had an awesone looking storm come by. It also managed to blow some tents over. This is video I shot when I realized the tents were gonna go. And here are a couple of shots I took of the clouds: This is the storm coming in from the north. And this is looking east before the winds hit. No one was injured. This is the second blowing trashcan video of the day. maybe I need to go outside and film mine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 This is the second blowing trashcan video of the day. maybe I need to go outside and film mine as well. Stay away from the trashcans today. Bad mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 And of course I am in raleigh while sop gets nailed. Looks like a split for raleigh Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like we could be doing this again tomorrow.WRF-ARW shows another MCS over eastern Tennessee heading for the Carolinas late tomorrow morning. Seems to weaken it over the mountains before restrengthening it late in the afternoon and evening east of the mountains. Here is the disco from SPC. ...TN/LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO CAROLINAS... MODELS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL THAT AN OVERNIGHT MCS LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE IN THE SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN AREA AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE RIDGING TO THE WEST...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WNWLY AND REMNANT STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ESEWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP WNWLY FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WOULD FAVOR THIS MCS INTENSIFYING...WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...WITH HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES. THESES STORMS WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I was at the Taste of Scotland Festival in Franklin this afternoon and we had an awesone looking storm come by. It also managed to blow some tents over. This is video I shot when I realized the tents were gonna go. And here are a couple of shots I took of the clouds: This is the storm coming in from the north. And this is looking east before the winds hit. No one was injured. Great photos! Glad no one was injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 After several days of afternoon thunderstorms a couple of weeks ago, it's been back to the drought for us in Baton Rouge, LA. We need some rain. Bad. You may end up with a lot of rain in about a week to 10 days. It depends on where the upper ridge is and that Gulf moisture that will be gathering, maybe into a tropical storm by that time. Its too uncertain to bank on. The models keep ridging just to your north and west, so someone to the south of there will likely see a slow moving bunch of moisture in some form, possibly flooding if it comes inland far enough. Looks like we could be doing this again tomorrow.WRF-ARW shows another MCS over eastern Tennessee heading for the Carolinas late tomorrow morning. Seems to weaken it over the mountains before restrengthening it late in the afternoon and evening east of the mountains. Here is the disco from SPC. . Thats the one the GFS went bonkers with about 3 days ago...was progging Sunday night for NC. I haven't looked at much for tomorrow but they're pretty good with it this year, so the pattern still supports the nw flow events. This wasn't much rain here, only .13" A literal wall of wind though, not as impressive as most of the MCC this season, but did knock down plenty of limbs around here, and once again another tree of mine that I had trimmed up in April lost a huge limb. More money wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Well that was pretty lame. Line fell apart before it reached me. Not much rain and only a little wind. Did see some cool cloud formations though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Just, and I mean just, missed a thunderstorm. You could hear and see it about a mile away. Just mist here off of the storm. Oh well. 2 drops commencing with the sinking airmass behind these cells. beautiful cloud formations though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 And of course I am in raleigh while sop gets nailed. Looks like a split for raleigh Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Was good meeting you today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Well that was pretty lame. Line fell apart before it reached me. Not much rain and only a little wind. Did see some cool cloud formations though... Dang, WK, and I was foolishly putting some hope into that line. Notice how the shield goes from state line to state line above Atl. and south of Atl. you see a county wide little patch of a line that is wanting to consolidate into a mile wide band of something rainish. By the time that gets here it should be about 35 drops, lol. We'll see. The radar has lied to me repeatedly. I'll go outside when it hits and if more that 4 drops hit me, I'll count it a good days work Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 After how dry it had been, I never thought I'd say this, but after the rain we've had lately it'll be nice to get some dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Of course the line falls apart when it comes into Eastern NC haha, our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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