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June part 2


Isopycnic

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:lol::(:huh::unsure:

Mesoscale Discussion 1302< Previous MD Next MD > mcd1302.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0558 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...

VALID 192258Z - 200000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512

CONTINUES.

WITH EARLIER SEVERE TSTMS HAVING RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS PORTIONS OF

UPSTATE SC...RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY WITHIN WW 512

PRIOR TO 00Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO HAVE

WEAKENED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS THAT ARE NOW OFF

THE CAROLINA COUNTY AND CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE S OF

THE BOUNDARY...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGEST THE

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH 00Z.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER

COULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE E/SEWD AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN

APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 06/19/2011

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

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Yep, only 6 months until Santa's on your roof again!! T

:gun_bandana:haha. Actually 6 months and 5 days. Not looking good for widespread in this area now, but the convection in northern TN and srn Ky has some potential for development tonight, esp. northern NC. and sw VA.

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547fuu.jpg

Here's a picture of a wall cloud from the tornado warned stormed over Greenville. This was taken from my parents house in Simpsonville.

Oh crap...didn't see this. As long as you don't mind the questions...what time do you think this was? Very last question!! ;)

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:gun_bandana:haha. Actually 6 months and 5 days. Not looking good for widespread in this area now, but the convection in northern TN and srn Ky has some potential for development tonight, esp. northern NC. and sw VA.

Definitely alot of griping by chasers in NC today.

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the leading cell just northeast of Nashville looks like it has a hook echo with it. So far its warned for golfball hail. Its beginning to drop southeast in the last few frames, but more cells are right behind it. Could be rough for Cookesville to Crossville and Knoxville/TRI if the cells maintain tonight.

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the leading cell just northeast of Nashville looks like it has a hook echo with it. So far its warned for golfball hail. Its beginning to drop southeast in the last few frames, but more cells are right behind it. Could be rough for Cookesville to Crossville and Knoxville/TRI if the cells maintain tonight.

Yep I am giving support to a fellow chaser who is on it now.

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yeah the morning storms put a damper on instability. It was a nice , relatively cool day here today. Only touched 80, stayed mostly in the 70's all day.

Yep worse yet is the heat coming this week. Wake me up when October comes LOL.

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Here are a few shots that I tried to take while I was traveling on I-385. This was after the rotation had weakened and the storm no longer had a tornado warning. The most impressive thing really was the rainbow in the first image... I only had a cell phone at hand, but its was much more impressive than the image I was able to take.

33etwg4.jpg

3090sio.jpg

2z3nrb5.png

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Looking forward to something like this:

Dennis:

Floyd:

Rainfal Totals:

http://www.learnnc.org/lp/table.php?id=6246

Rainfall from hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene, September–October 1999

Provided by U.S. Geological Survey

Rainfall amounts, in inches, associated with Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene, September - October 1999; Hurricane Fran, September 1996; and annual average (1960-90) rainfall at selected locations in North Carolina

Location = Hurricane Dennis (Sept. 3–7) = Hurricane Floyd (Sept. 14–17) = =Hurricane Irene (Oct. 17–18) = Sept - Oct. 1999 total = Annual average rainfall

Tar-Pamlico River Basin

Oxford 6.07 5.67 1.94 20.15 43 (est.)

Louisburg 5.59 8.88 2.01 24.34 45.56

Rocky Mount 5.06-7.59 14.07-18.00 5.16 37.72 44.24

Enfield 7.01 11.84 4.30 32.39 44.54

Greenville 7.03 12.63 3.29 30.20 49.00

Washington 7.60 10.73 5.07 31.05 46.96

Neuse River Basin

Durham 3.30 5.98 0.91 18.60 48.10

Raleigh 8.46 6.55 1.50 24.24 41.43

Clayton 5.35 9.80 2.59 20.98 45.11

Goldsboro 7.19-7.94 12.06-12.70 4.36 32.10 49.27

Wilson 7.60 10.73 5.07 31.05 46.96

Kinston 6.07-6.93 13.35-13.98 5.37 29.48 51.20

New Bern 4.00 5.51 6.39 19.82 53.11

Trenton 7.42 14.98 — >24.60a 52.22

Cape Fear River Basin

Chapel Hill 12.52 4.67 0.84 26.55 46.02

Dunn 4.50 7.65 4.34 23.81 47.72

Fayetteville 2.12 7.23 4.19 21.83 46.72

Clinton 2.96 11.50 4.33 27.50 49(est.)

Willard 1.30 13.23 — >21.01a 53.04

Elizabethtown >1.19b >14.19b >6.69b >28.00b 46.78

Wilmington 0.59 19.06 2.73 27.10 54.27

Waccamaw and Lumber River Basins

Lumberton 1.34 9.82 5.48 24.16 46.54

Whiteville 1.52 16.76 5.97 34.27 48.73

Other sites

Lewiston 3.56 9.73 3.47 19.55 46.82

Williamston 7.20 16.28 5.54 35.55 48.07

Edenton 5.07 6.18 6.12 23.59 48.54

Elizabeth City 7.68 2.64 5.06 17.73 48.48

Plymouth 5.03 7.37 -- >15.15a 51.06

Morehead City 4.29 4.33 — >11.21a 55.05

Hoffman Forest 6.49 9.78 — >19.58a 55.60

(a) October rainfall records are unavailable.

(B) Partial record; some missing values for period.

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Here are a few shots that I tried to take while I was traveling on I-385. This was after the rotation had weakened and the storm no longer had a tornado warning. The most impressive thing really was the rainbow in the first image... I only had a cell phone at hand, but its was much more impressive than the image I was able to take.

33etwg4.jpg

3090sio.jpg

2z3nrb5.png

Love the shot of the updraft! Thank you for sharing.

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Interesting snippet from RAH just now in the AFD...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1007 PM SUNDAY... INTERESTINGLY TONIGHT... AS IN A FEW NIGHTS AGO... THE DEW POINTS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION INCLUDING THE RALEIGH-DURHAM ASOS WERE THE LOWEST OF ANY REPORTED ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THE CURRENT DROUGHT BUT ALSO IN PART DUE TO THE PREDOMINATE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS (IN THE CURRENT WNW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN). THE LATEST DEW POINTS RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE LOWER 70S OBSERVED JUST TO OUR SOUTH... SOUTHWEST... WEST... NORTHWEST... AND NORTH. UPSTREAM... YET ANOTHER MCS WAS DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE EASTERN TENNESSEE AS THE AIR MASS OVER TENNESSEE WAS VOLATILE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. CONTRAST THAT WITH LESS THAN 200 J/KG MLCAPE OBSERVED AT GREENSBORO (00Z THIS EVENING).
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Interesting snippet from RAH just now in the AFD...

that phenomenon happened each of the last three Summers here, during the 3 heat waves. It was weird to watch my dewpoint go to 49, while Charlotte was 70, CAE 71. Every afternoon I'd watch in amazement at this . It was pure downslope and zero moisture in the ground here, so its doable for sure. By the same token, the temps here during the first heat wave haven't been as high as areas to my east and south and southwest yet. The ground level moisture keeps eating away at the potential heat, so hopefully it works its magic this week when it gets hot again. Of course muggy will be the result.

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