PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Remember if we get a -QBO thats not bad, but wasnt 2001-2002 a -QBO? According to that data that mitchnick posted, 01-02 was a +QBO. In looking at some of our real snowy winters, most all seem to have a -QBO on that chart; however, there's a couple of them with real -QBO's that were still really crappy winters here (91/92, 00/01, 07/08) so I don't know how important it is. Though I'm not understanding a lot of this and how it correlates to our winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I am sorry if I missed it but has there been any posts/threads on the recent news of continued decreased sun spot activity to the point of maybe even entering a Maunder Minimum and impacts on Mid Atlantic Winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Don't worry JI, the CFS can only get colder from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 All CFS forecasts have a Negative-Neutral to Weak La Nina next winter for Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 All CFS forecasts have a Negative-Neutral to Weak La Nina next winter for Nino 3.4 other than 1976-77 there isn't a single El Nino event in the last 100+ years that proceeded a mod/strong La Nina....neutral/weak La Nina is a safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 other than 1976-77 there isn't a single El Nino event in the last 100+ years that proceeded a mod/strong La Nina....neutral/weak La Nina is a safe bet so you're saying there's a chance then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I hope this winter is straight up ENSO neutral. It would be great to see the reasoning with the winter forecasts in October without Nina/Nino on the table. The HM's and Don S's of the board will have some truly excellent and intellectual posts about the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Over at the accuweather forums BtownWxWatcher posted an analogue map that factored in Winters after 2 straight Winters of a -NAO with a -.5 departure or more. The Winters used also included the full ENSO spectrum. Here are the results: According to this we could see another cold one. Factor in the potential for a -QBO and the chances of colder than normal weather increase even more. Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Over at the accuweather forums BtownWxWatcher posted an analogue map that factored in Winters after 2 straight Winters of a -NAO with a -.5 departure or more. The Winters used also included the full ENSO spectrum. Here are the results: According to this we could see another cold one. Factor in the potential for a -QBO and the chances of colder than normal weather increase even more. Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. that sample size isn't very meaningful nor do the parameters have any statistical significance, but that doesn't mean we won't have a cold winter.....I think what we are seeing in the pattern now, continues into winter.....which is transience......usually a transient/progressive pattern is warm in the means for us in the winter.....we get arctic blasts and sometimes meaningful ones, but they are brief and not enough to offset the warm periods.....unless we get a surprise Nino and I think that is unlikely, we aren't going to have a good Pacific in a weak nina or neutral winter.....we could get a blocky winter and that will keep us cold in the means, but it will typically be a dry cold with a storm track to our west.....so it doesn't excite me that much.....still lots to decipher over the next 4-5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Over at the accuweather forums BtownWxWatcher posted an analogue map that factored in Winters after 2 straight Winters of a -NAO with a -.5 departure or more. The Winters used also included the full ENSO spectrum. Here are the results: According to this we could see another cold one. Factor in the potential for a -QBO and the chances of colder than normal weather increase even more. Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. Welcome! Gonna have to kind of mirror what zwyts said to a degree on this one... it's quite difficult to pick up on NAO "trends" this far out, especially when regarding year-to-year analogs with little or no significant correlation beyond the NAO signal. Also, using strictly the "winters after 2 straight winters of a NAO dep. of -0.5 or more," the analogs should also include 1965-1966 (3rd year in a 4-year streak) and 1979-1980 (the 3rd of 3 consecutive years). Though, even with these analogs, the signal doesn't change significantly from the map you presented. My initial thoughts for the region is that we end up near normal to slightly below normal for the winter... but that forecast is still a couple of months too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Welcome! Gonna have to kind of mirror what zwyts said to a degree on this one... it's quite difficult to pick up on NAO "trends" this far out, especially when regarding year-to-year analogs with little or no significant correlation beyond the NAO signal. Also, using strictly the "winters after 2 straight winters of a NAO dep. of -0.5 or more," the analogs should also include 1965-1966 (3rd year in a 4-year streak) and 1979-1980 (the 3rd of 3 consecutive years). Though, even with these analogs, the signal doesn't change significantly from the map you presented. My initial thoughts for the region is that we end up near normal to slightly below normal for the winter... but that forecast is still a couple of months too early I'd like a snowfall forecast, please. I'd like dates and amounts as well. No, seriously, you did a great job last year with snow forecast maps, especially for my area. Hopefully you get the chance to be able to forecast some higher totals this time around. Any thoughts on an analog to what we likely see this winter wrt atmosphere, solar, and ocean conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I'd like a snowfall forecast, please. I'd like dates and amounts as well. No, seriously, you did a great job last year with snow forecast maps, especially for my area. Hopefully you get the chance to be able to forecast some higher totals this time around. Any thoughts on an analog to what we likely see this winter wrt atmosphere, solar, and ocean conditions? Snowfall forecasts were alright... had some bigger misses towards the end Did good on some storms, though. I haven't even looked at winter yet... we still have two months of summer to go! Gotta enjoy the warmth and storms before the return of the evil cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. I hope you're not that father frost guy that used to post at eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I hope you're not that father frost guy that used to post at eastern. I am, as far as I remember I did nothing to earn myself a bad name there. I tried to login to that account here but it wouldnt work no matter what I tried so, I made a new one. Is there something wrong with me being the old user FatherFrost? The only thing I can remember that people showed disdain for was that I posted a preliminary winter outlook and the bashing commenced...for some reason...it was too vague or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 that sample size isn't very meaningful nor do the parameters have any statistical significance, but that doesn't mean we won't have a cold winter.....I think what we are seeing in the pattern now, continues into winter.....which is transience......usually a transient/progressive pattern is warm in the means for us in the winter.....we get arctic blasts and sometimes meaningful ones, but they are brief and not enough to offset the warm periods.....unless we get a surprise Nino and I think that is unlikely, we aren't going to have a good Pacific in a weak nina or neutral winter.....we could get a blocky winter and that will keep us cold in the means, but it will typically be a dry cold with a storm track to our west.....so it doesn't excite me that much.....still lots to decipher over the next 4-5 months although I have to agree with you on that statement, if one looks just at the change in equatorial water temps and the current anomalies vs. what the models are saying, it does look like a developing NINO imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 although I have to agree with you on that statement, if one looks just at the change in equatorial water temps and the current anomalies vs. what the models are saying, it does look like a developing NINO imho maybe, latest numbers are still neutral...this could be just fluctuations 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Analogs that might be useful are 1967-68, 1974-75, and 2008-09. All were 2nd year Ninas after a Nino, featured the -PDO, the +AMO, and at least 2 of the 3 likely featured the +IOD. 2 of the 3 winters were in a period of lower solar activity as well (2008-09, 1974-75). Of course this assuming the ENSO doesn't revert to neutral instead of a Nina. Past history would argue against that though. But low solar is important regarding the NAO, as is the QBO. QBO DEC/JAN/FEB 1967/68: -7.27 -8.38 -10.21 1974/75: 22.57 -16.70 -15.39 2008-09: 10.46 10.71 12.33 To add into this post, if the -QBO were to not manifest cleanly, I'd think that my analogue choice above might need to be thrown out. I know I'd favor the -AO/-NAO regime given the low Geomagnetic Flux & Weak Solar Wind (assuming it doesn't strengthen). I don't think it is any coincidence that the Strongest -AO in history occured during the lowest Geomagnetic Flux via AP index in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 that sample size isn't very meaningful nor do the parameters have any statistical significance, but that doesn't mean we won't have a cold winter.....I think what we are seeing in the pattern now, continues into winter.....which is transience......usually a transient/progressive pattern is warm in the means for us in the winter.....we get arctic blasts and sometimes meaningful ones, but they are brief and not enough to offset the warm periods.....unless we get a surprise Nino and I think that is unlikely, we aren't going to have a good Pacific in a weak nina or neutral winter.....we could get a blocky winter and that will keep us cold in the means, but it will typically be a dry cold with a storm track to our west.....so it doesn't excite me that much.....still lots to decipher over the next 4-5 months I'm pretty sure this past winter flies right the face of this analysis...not that you're incorrect or anything, but are you looking at all the variables? Or maybe you are weighting them cautiously? We had the +IO, +QBO, and a Mod-Strong La Nina, and the pattern did not reflect such a pattern in the 2010-11 winter, I can't ever recall seeing te massive -NAO block in DEC like we had last yr with teleconnectors in the phases they were in. The "Snow Hole" was not Coincidence, it wasn't bad luck, the overall synoptics just didn't favor the proper setup locally for heavy snow (consistantly). But if we are to assume we remain Neutral in ENSO, you could say, 1) Likely a Stronger STJ, 2) -QBO may favor a deeper -NAO/-AO coupled with a low Geomagnetic Flux, 3) The IOD is likely in a colder mode (based of current SSTs admittedly), and a Cooler -AMO (potentially), may increase our chances at a more prolonged cold pattern rather than a warmer one with colder intervals. Don't know, but just seems somewhat rational to think so. Just thinking into this a bit to heavily, but still worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I'm pretty sure this past winter flies right the face of this analysis...not that you're incorrect or anything, but are you looking at all the variables? Or maybe you are weighting them cautiously? We had the +IO, +QBO, and a Mod-Strong La Nina, and the pattern did not reflect such a pattern in the 2010-11 winter, I can't ever recall seeing te massive -NAO block in DEC like we had last yr with teleconnectors in the phases they were in. The "Snow Hole" was not Coincidence, it wasn't bad luck, the overall synoptics just didn't favor the proper setup locally for heavy snow (consistantly). But if we are to assume we remain Neutral in ENSO, you could say, 1) Likely a Stronger STJ, 2) -QBO may favor a deeper -NAO/-AO coupled with a low Geomagnetic Flux, 3) The IOD is likely in a colder mode (based of current SSTs admittedly), and a Cooler -AMO (potentially), may increase our chances at a more prolonged cold pattern rather than a warmer one with colder intervals. Don't know, but just seems somewhat rational to think so. Just thinking into this a bit to heavily, but still worth it. Neutrals after Ninas tend to have a La Nina "hangover" in the pattern. The best neutrals or weak Ninas for the M.A. seem to come after Ninos ala '66-'67, '78-'79, '95-'96, etc. That said, our sample size is small so anything can happen. But you usually want a leftover Nino hangover to have any kind of STJ action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Neutrals after Ninas tend to have a La Nina "hangover" in the pattern. The best neutrals or weak Ninas for the M.A. seem to come after Ninos ala '66-'67, '78-'79, '95-'96, etc. That said, our sample size is small so anything can happen. But you usually want a leftover Nino hangover to have any kind of STJ action. Oh. So you're saying that there may not be any notable increase in the STJ despite the brief warm Flux we have right now in the ENSO regions? I was thinking that there may be some effect, but I'm not exactly qualified to speak here. I was looking back at SST data and I don't recall seeing the ENSO regions rebound as quickly as they did this spring/summer from a strong Nina, if we are looking for a weak Nina next winter rather than Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 maybe, latest numbers are still neutral...this could be just fluctuations 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 those weekly numbers look wacky when comparing every SSTA map, except I'll buy 0 for NINO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 those weekly numbers look wacky when comparing every SSTA map, except I'll buy 0 for NINO 4 ENSO region 3.4 has been holding near neutral for over a month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ENSO region 3.4 has been holding near neutral for over a month... Subsurface has been cooling for about a month too which makes the chances of an El Nino quite remote IMHO. Trade winds are forecasted to strengthen in the long range, so its probably done making its climb back to neutral...but these things can be fickle, so we'll see what it does in the next month. In order of likelihood, I'd probably put the winter scenarios like this: 1. Weak La Nina 2. Negative neutral 3. Positive neutral 4. Moderate La Nina 5. Weak El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Subsurface has been cooling for about a month too which makes the chances of an El Nino quite remote IMHO. Trade winds are forecasted to strengthen in the long range, so its probably done making its climb back to neutral...but these things can be fickle, so we'll see what it does in the next month. In order of likelihood, I'd probably put the winter scenarios like this: 1. Weak La Nina 2. Negative neutral 3. Positive neutral 4. Moderate La Nina 5. Weak El Nino not much of an argument here with that list, not that I like the "likely" consequences for winter down here if its right you should be ecstatic, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 not much of an argument here with that list, not that I like the "likely" consequences for winter down here if its right you should be ecstatic, however Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that I am guessing: Super-bad Ji-suicide bad Ji-takes-us-all-out and then suicide bad Extra-bad Uber-terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that Potent La Ninas tend to stink and so do neutrals after La Nina in that region. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure zwyts does and will chime in when he reads this. This is why you want to have an El Nino or at least a Nino hangover. There are some exceptions...a nice 2 week period in January 2000 sort of salvaged that winter to being OK despite a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that I'm pretty sure heading into last winter (2010-11), things looked as bad as they could reasonably get. +QBO, Strong La Nina, +IO... For what we were up against, we did well (relatively). The complaining is just tradition. I assume 1998-99 looked pretty bleak as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Potent La Ninas tend to stink and so do neutrals after La Nina in that region. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure zwyts does and will chime in when he reads this. This is why you want to have an El Nino or at least a Nino hangover. There are some exceptions...a nice 2 week period in January 2000 sort of salvaged that winter to being OK despite a strong La Nina. That winter storm was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 That winter storm was awesome 3 storms over 2 weeks with the 1/25/00 being the best, though folks out west toward IAD and beyond didn't do so hot I like the -QBO this year and the sleepy sun giving us a "chance" at some blocking other than that, the "odds favor" this winter will not be better than last year but 1 storm like 1/25/00 in an otherwise lousy winter can change the perception of the winter in retrospect, if I had received a foot or more from the PSUHoffman storm like many 20 miles or less to my N and NE did, I might have felt different about this past winter...that plus the fact BWI had over 1.5" qpf and measured around 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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