Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown. Depressing... It's easier to warm up than it is to cool down IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown. Seems to me that the heat and dry have lots of things dying and leaves falling from the trees and pretty much anything that was green is brown unless someone is watering right now....so I guess we have 7 months of the above to live through unless things break here pretty soon. As far as winter goes...we used to talk about how certain patterns have a hard time sustaining for real long periods...assuming this dry/hot pattern goes through early Fall...I think we may have a shot at least a cold winter...I've always said give me cold first so any moisture that comes would bare fruit....who knows though...we will see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Seems to me that the heat and dry have lots of things dying and leaves falling from the trees and pretty much anything that was green is brown unless someone is watering right now....so I guess we have 7 months of the above to live through unless things break here pretty soon. As far as winter goes...we used to talk about how certain patterns have a hard time sustaining for real long periods...assuming this dry/hot pattern goes through early Fall...I think we may have a shot at least a cold winter...I've always said give me cold first so any moisture that comes would bare fruit....who knows though...we will see soon enough. Plenty of cold around last winter...just no moisture to be found around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The SE weenie heartbreaking ridge has been at bay last couple of years. It should have been there last year but the persistant -AO/-NAO pattern beat it down pretty good. One would argue that the odds of a decent winter are higher than a torch. The DC/Balt corridor was only 100 miles away from a really good winter last year. Even though it hurt to watch it was still a really good EC winter for most areas. Having that in the face of a big NINA was unexcpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Jb on twitter Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S the AO was pretty low for June and if we are in a negative faze of the ao the east coast could get another decent winter...DC is always a tough call and after 2009-10 anything under 20" would be a disappointment...enso should be negative but weak...There are exceptions to JB's Major cold theory after a hot Summer..... the hot summer/cold winter years 1955 1966 1977 1980 1983 1993 1995 2002 2010 not so for 1953 1988 1991 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown. I'll take 30 degrees with a crisp chill and fresh 6-8 inch snowfall over 104 degree heat with a 126 HI any day of the week. It will be nice to enjoy a cigar outside without being soaked 5 minutes in and being eaten by mosquitoes. I don't have to worry about sunburn in the winter either. Sledding, skiing and playing in the snow with the 4X4. Those are what I call fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Jb on twitter Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S or it may not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'll take 30 degrees with a crisp chill and fresh 6-8 inch snowfall over 104 degree heat with a 126 HI any day of the week. It will be nice to enjoy a cigar outside without being soaked 5 minutes in and being eaten by mosquitoes. I don't have to worry about sunburn in the winter either. Sledding, skiing and playing in the snow with the 4X4. Those are what I call fun times. 104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does. Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment. All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does. Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment. All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable! +1 I prefer summer over winter anyday. But I do love tracking snowstorms and a blizzard as much as the next guy. But nothing beats BBQs outside, not having to bundle up with 5 layers when walking the dog, beaches, beers in the backyard at night, etc. Anywho, looking forward to reading more 'theories' and predictions for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does. Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment. All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable! Maybe I'm odd, but I prefer walking around in colder weather than in heat. I'll take our usual winter 30's/40's here over summer 90's any day. I like spring and fall temperatures too but summer is too hot here (for me) to do much outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Maybe I'm odd, but I prefer walking around in colder weather than in heat. I'll take our usual winter 30's/40's here over summer 90's any day. I like spring and fall temperatures too but summer is too hot here (for me) to do much outside. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I had a dream last night that we got a couple inches of snow while Philly->north got smashed by a Miller B. No joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I had a dream last night that we got a couple inches of snow while Philly->north got smashed by a Miller B. No joke. that wasn't a dream, just a memory of last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 that wasn't a dream, just a memory of last winter would've gladly taken even a couple inches of snow; it would've been a marked improvement over the multiple dustings we received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Just For Fun: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/53551/snow-forecast-for-the-winter-of-20112012.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Fringed again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Just For Fun: http://www.accuweath...of-20112012.asp #airhorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I honestly think his "lack of greenland blocking/lack of cold" idea is going to fail miserably just based on where the teleconnections seems to be going. And how convenient that State College is in the bullseye, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I found these on another site, a snow weenies dream: http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/pics?album=3&gallery=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I honestly think his "lack of greenland blocking/lack of cold" idea is going to fail miserably just based on where the teleconnections seems to be going. And how convenient that State College is in the bullseye, eh? Good reasoning.......... Remember what caused the heavy west-leaning block in 2010-2011 was at least seemingly the weak solar discharge aspect, something we don't have this year. I also have no clue what "teleconnectors" you speak of..,the NAO is a teleconnector itself. So please elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Good reasoning.......... Remember what caused the heavy west-leaning block in 2010-2011 was at least seemingly the weak solar discharge aspect, something we don't have this year. I also have no clue what "teleconnectors" you speak of..,the NAO is a teleconnector itself. So please elaborate? Well on the Atlantic side there is the -NAO/-AO. On a larger scale there is -QBO which reinforces the chance of a greenland block. We're also in a state of relatively low solar output, continuing the minimum we've been in. A few CME's does not an active sun make. One thing that will have to be watched is where the aleutian ridge sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Well on the Atlantic side there is the -NAO/-AO. On a larger scale there is -QBO which reinforces the change of a greenland block. We're also in a state of relatively low solar output, continuing the minimum we've been in. A few CME's does not an active sun make. One thing that will have to be watched is where the aleutian ridge sets up. What? I don't think it is CME's as much as the Solar Wind in general, as we see it stronger as of late, actually, it has been truckin' pretty good lately. I was asking for your reasoning, explaining why a block similar to 2010-11 should occur again. Are you saying the QBO flip & thus more tolerable modulations of SSW events at proper heights will alone be enough to overcome the increase in the solar wind? If so, why? Not that I don't somewhat agree with that, but why? I don't know...and I'm sure neither do you. I hope I'm not coming off as a hardass, I'm just confused maybe. Your Quote" The way the Teleconnectors are setting up", was just a bit vague. Also ever thought where the "Aleutian Ridge" Sets up may be determined by the very factors you state will cause a massive -NAO? I don't understand that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 What? I don't think it is CME's as much as the Solar Wind in general, as we see it stronger as of late, actually, it has been truckin' pretty good lately. I was asking for your reasoning, explaining why a block similar to 2010-11 should occur again. Are you saying the QBO flip & thus more tolerable modulations of SSW events at proper heights will alone be enough to overcome the increase in the solar wind? If so, why? Not that I don't somewhat agree with that, but why? I don't know...and I'm sure neither do you. I hope I'm not coming off as a hardass, I'm just confused maybe. Your Quote" The way the Teleconnectors are setting up", was just a bit vague. Also ever thought where the "Aleutian Ridge" Sets up may be determined by the very factors you state will cause a massive -NAO? I don't understand that either. That may be the case but the Sun overall isn't abnormally active and its still rather inactive and weak. When I start seeing tons of sunspots then I will think differently about that. And FYI, I never said a block similar to last winter would occur... I do think we will see a Greenland Block. I dont think this Winter will be as good as last Winter. At the same time, I dont think it will be an abnormally dry, warm winter either. Solar wind is a factor, but just ONE factor. And yes, the other factors could have an influence on where the Aleutian Ridge sets up. The thing is, every other oscillation could be in favor of a cold Winter BUT if the Aleutian Ridge is not aligned or placed properly as some have stated on these forums, you can get a warm winter in the Mid-Atl very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 That may be the case but the Sun overall isn't abnormally active and its still rather inactive and weak. When I start seeing tons of sunspots then I will think differently about that. And FYI, I never said a block similar to last winter would occur... I do think we will see a Greenland Block. I dont think this Winter will be as good as last Winter. At the same time, I dont think it will be an abnormally dry, warm winter either. Solar wind is a factor, but just ONE factor. And yes, the other factors could have an influence on where the Aleutian Ridge sets up. The thing is, every other oscillation could be in favor of a cold Winter BUT if the Aleutian Ridge is not aligned or placed properly as some have stated on these forums, you can get a warm winter in the Mid-Atl very easily. Umm, k. All I wanted was reasoning behind your earlier statements. And the Solar Sunspot cycles do not have any significant correlation to the NAO, otherwise we'd have massive 11yr swings from positivity to negativity. Its is magnetic discharge/wind that is being studied my most folks. You can have many weak sunspots, facing away from the earth, etc, with little discharge towards earth, individual strength, unipolar clusters producing CME's, equatorial vs Hemispheric sunspots, what matters is what actually gets to earth. Forgive me, I am for some reason having a hard time understanding your rationale here. You say the Sun Activity Flux is just one driver...very true, but what "other factors" are you looking at? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Umm, k. All I wanted was reasoning behind your earlier statements. And the Solar Sunspot cycles do not have any significant correlation to the NAO, otherwise we'd have massive 11yr swings from positivity to negativity. Its is magnetic discharge/wind that is being studied my most folks. You can have many weak sunspots, facing away from the earth, etc, with little discharge towards earth, individual strength, unipolar clusters producing CME's, equatorial vs Hemispheric sunspots, what matters is what actually gets to earth. Forgive me, I am for some reason having a hard time understanding your rationale here. You say the Sun Activity Flux is just one driver...very true, but what "other factors" are you looking at? Thanks! The more sunspots, the more radiation coming from the sun to the Earth. The less sunspots the less radiation. They are connected. Maybe not strongly connected, but what I state is usually the case. I have explained my thoughts the best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The more sunspots, the more radiation coming from the sun to the Earth. The less sunspots the less radiation. They are connected. Maybe not strongly connected, but what I state is usually the case. I have explained my thoughts the best I can. IR from the Sun only varies by 0.25W/m^2 between solar cycles at most, and as you said, if there is any effect it is not measurable. Overall changes through IR are not the culprit for NAO changes. ugh, well fine then, I was hoping for an in depth discussion, we haven't even scratched the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'd gladly take a repeat of last winter when I got 80% of normal snowfall, but with many dynamic systems. I saw a decade's worth of rain to snow situations last year. Unfortunately, I expect a winter more like 2008-09 when, despite one bone chilling January cold snap that dropped my temps to -5F, I only recorded 5" of snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'd gladly take a repeat of last winter when I got 80% of normal snowfall, but with many dynamic systems. I saw a decade's worth of rain to snow situations last year. Unfortunately, I expect a winter more like 2008-09 when, despite one bone chilling January cold snap that dropped my temps to -5F, I only recorded 5" of snow for the season. If it happens, I'll be staring down my first suspension from this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I think today we just looked ahead to winter 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I think today we just looked ahead to winter 2011-2012 You should just go ahead and cancel it bro, it is grim looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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