Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Shortwave on the NAM really looks flat at hr 45. yeah not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 yeah not so good. It's awful looking on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The wafflers, the pessimists that find any reason to say woe is me, the disloyal, they can't hold back the onslaught that's coming. The roaring wind through the forest tonight says it all. Indeed, we shall stand tall for the time is upon us. We three shall rise victorious above the drifts and say to the non-believers "Behold your King, look upon the icy face of your vanquisher, Ullr has returned and ye shall pay." :weenie: : Def a triple bunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It's awful looking on this run. Eh, maybe it looks better at 6z. I'm optimistic. Typical waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It's awful looking on this run. it did the complete opposite of what we would have hoped to see. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks stronger with the confluence over the Northeast...the s/w really looks like crap...if you can even call it that at 72. What would that be? It getting sheared out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Eh, maybe it looks better at 6z. I'm optimistic. Typical waffling. I'm just commenting on how it looks...the NAM sometimes does this from time to time. Maybe it's right, but we won't know until the rest of the 00z stuff comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 it did the complete opposite of what we would have hoped to see. LOL. That ridiculous vortmax east of us went nuts and stretched the flow so flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM now says no snow for DC Were picking up right were we left off last February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 it did the complete opposite of what we would have hoped to see. LOL. Congrats to HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The wafflers, the pessimists that find any reason to say woe is me, the disloyal, they can't hold back the onslaught that's coming. The roaring wind through the forest tonight says it all. Indeed, we shall stand tall for the time is upon us. We three shall rise victorious above the drifts and say to the non-believers "Behold your King, look upon the icy face of your vanquisher, Ullr has returned and ye shall pay." we three? the three old timers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 What's causing it to be so south? Is it b/c of what's going on with the strength of the PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I did notice the retrograding system in Nova Scotia is progged quite a bit further south with this run. Future implications with the s/w we're looking at? Anyway, I coulda used a better send off to bed ... oh well! Laters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That ridiculous vortmax east of us went nuts and stretched the flow so flat. this is where the nam can be maddening too because it sometimes "sees" so much stuff and ends up keying in on subtle differences and making them more than they deserve. not saying that's the case here but it's just another thing to consider. that said, in the big picture it's hard to argue that it didn't just move toward the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 84 wants to bring jerry's elphant back to downeast maine ...prjojected out.....and deliver a nice snow to Central and East new england? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 just to throw one more model in there regarding the strength of the s/w, the 18z rgem was quite impressed with the s/w through 48, probably more so than any other model so far, except perhaps the 12z/18z NAM which it was similar to. 1006mb over the plains with some solid snows breaking out in the Dakotas and MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 this is where the nam can be maddening too because it sometimes "sees" so much stuff and ends up keying in on subtle differences and making them more than they deserve. not saying that's the case here but it's just another thing to consider. that said, in the big picture it's hard to argue that it didn't just move toward the consensus. Yeah I had that in mind too...it could be going nuts with that vortmax to the SE. Who knows if its right or not. But it certainly is a lot different than its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 :weenie: : Def a triple bunner Hey, it was my 500th post. It needed a fleurish. we three? the three old timers? I'm quite sure this is 1 old timer you'd have a tough time keeping up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Shortwave on the NAM really looks flat at hr 45. Yeah, plug pulled on that trend. This run ain't going to cut it - making the Euro look stupid with that kind of collapse into the GFS. wow - Could just be a turd run relative to its self but one thing this young season has proven thus far is that it is a fool's errand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The wafflers, the pessimists that find any reason to say woe is me, the disloyal, they can't hold back the onslaught that's coming. The roaring wind through the forest tonight says it all. Indeed, we shall stand tall for the time is upon us. We three shall rise victorious above the drifts and say to the non-believers "Behold your King, look upon the icy face of your vanquisher, Ullr has returned and ye shall pay." :weenie: "Ye shall have 2 buns" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hey, it was my 500th post. It needed a fleurish. I'm quite sure this is 1 old timer you'd have a tough time keeping up with. nah unless of course we are just talking about skiing or chugging ensure the 0z nam looks a bit more retro at the end and this could be a good thing for sun nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 it did the complete opposite of what we would have hoped to see. LOL. That pretty much been the atmoshere's MO since the 2nd half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, plug pulled on that trend. This run ain't going to cut it - making the Euro look stupid with that kind of collapse into the GFS. wow - Could just be a turd run relative to its self but one thing this young season has proven thus far is that it is a fool's errand The thing is, we've seen the NAM do this, only to come back with guns blazing in 6 hrs. If the rest of the runs do this, then I'll worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That pretty much been the atmoshere's MO since the 2nd half of January. At this point I'm starting to buy into the JUJU philosophy. Maybe if we stop bitching about 2010 (myself included), things will start to turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 this is where the nam can be maddening too because it sometimes "sees" so much stuff and ends up keying in on subtle differences and making them more than they deserve. not saying that's the case here but it's just another thing to consider. that said, in the big picture it's hard to argue that it didn't just move toward the consensus. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 At this point I'm starting to buy into the JUJU philosophy. Maybe if we stop bitching about 2010 (myself included), things will start to turn. I haven't been...all I have been doing is reitterating how it was last season and is behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Nothing at all like last year. It's 12/1. Here in Boston, it's a tad unusual to have decent snow prior to 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Well hopefully the NAM took a hires fart. I guess I'll find out by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Nothing at all like last year. It's 12/1. Here in Boston, it's a tad unusual to have decent snow prior to 12/10. Yes it is...but this pattern can support snow earlier than that. We've been talking about Dec 5-6, 1981 as an analog for a while on some of these setups. Kind of eery how its basically 29 years to the exact day it wants to retrograde that low like back in '81. On the other hand, it wouldn't be surprising to have to wait until a threat like 12/12-13 or something. If we recall back to 2007, DC saw JB's infamous "clipper flipper" on Dec 5th well before Boston saw good snows...but then on 12/13/07, all hell broke loose for BOS where they recorded over 27" of snow in 8 days. Sometimes these things can be quirky and we just have no idea how exactly they will play out despite the pattern being favorable or unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 :weenie: "Ye shall have 2 buns" :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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