Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The thing is, we've seen the NAM do this, only to come back with guns blazing in 6 hrs. If the rest of the runs do this, then I'll worry. Liking the easterly 850inflow that is developing, I do not think this run is as god awful as could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 00z rgem is much more potent than the NAM with the s/w, looks quite good. Also of note is that it's almost 6 hours faster with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Liking the easterly 850inflow that is developing, I do not think this run is as god awful as could be. You could find a silver lining to a hemorrhoid on Satan's azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You could find a silver lining to a hemorrhoid on Satan's azz. Yea well there are some positives, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yea well there are some positives, "At least it isn't pussing".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Down east getting clobbered early on this GFS run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The GFS is a hair slower with the s/w and not as impressive with it through 48 hours. I don't know what is causing it but the runs that have a faster s/w have also had a stronger s/w emerge over the plains, while the slower runs have had a weaker s/w emerge. 12z and 00z GFS had a slow, weak s/w, while 18z had a faster, stronger one. The 12z and 18z NAM had a faster stronger s/w than the 00z which slowed it down and weakened it. And the rgem is even faster and stronger than the NAM with the s/w. Any idea why the runs with a faster s/w have also had it stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 "At least it isn't pussing".... Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Probably 1-3/2-4 for Chicago this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 look at that block..100 kt east winds at 250mb into Labrador in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Down east getting clobbered early on this GFS run.. By a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The GFS is a hair slower with the s/w and not as impressive with it through 48 hours. I don't know what is causing it but the runs that have a faster s/w have also had a stronger s/w emerge over the plains, while the slower runs have had a weaker s/w emerge. 12z and 00z GFS had a slow, weak s/w, while 18z had a faster, stronger one. The 12z and 18z NAM had a faster stronger s/w than the 00z which slowed it down and weakened it. And the rgem is even faster and stronger than the NAM with the s/w. Any idea why the runs with a faster s/w have also had it stronger? Because otherwise I'd get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Through 72 there's basically nothing.. it's completely shredded. But there is a 994mb in eastern ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 By a lot of rain. Changes to snow late. Look at the retrograde giving us probably 15-20 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unreal...we need it stronger and slower, which precisely why the metaphysical demon that is 2010 will not allow that couplet in trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 The system will get cut off and be too far away to do anything but piss us off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unless the EURO does something dramatic @ 00z, the 12\5-6 gm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unless the EURO does something dramatic @ 00z, the 12\5-6 gm is over. Rays back yes he's back yes he's back, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Unless the EURO does something dramatic @ 00z, the 12\5-6 gm is over. Yep we have basically lost all model support for anything even close to a hit. Still nada on the 00z UKIE/NAM/GFS. Only thing of interest so far is the rgem, so it might be interesting to see what the ggem has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Rays back yes he's back yes he's back, How did I know you would respond.....I dnt think its a huge stretch now that we are 3.5 days away and everything is trending in the wrong direction.....00z EURO pending. You can play the 'ole "wait until the SW gets sampeled" card, and that is true, but this looks like azz. Not sure what is "pessimistic " about that, but rather realistic. I didn't cancel winter or this entire pattern for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I still say give it another day or 2. But frankly what are we looking for. A bonafide KU the first few days of December is exceedingly rare. A dusting is not. I'll be satisfied with dust for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 This run breaks out steady lt snow coming in from the NE late Monday/Monday night btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I still say give it another day or 2. But frankly what are we looking for. A bonafide KU the first few days of December is exceedingly rare. A dusting is not. I'll be satisfied with dust for now. I'm canceling the potential for anything over 2", pending the EURO; not a wintry scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm canceling the potential for anything over 2", pending the EURO; not a wintry scene. I would cancel the expectation. The potential is still there but it is a long shot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How did I know you would respond.....I dnt think its a huge stretch now that we are 3.5 days away and everything is trending in the wrong direction.....00z EURO pending. You can play the 'ole "wait until the SW gets sampeled" card, and that is true, but this looks like azz. Not sure what is "pessimistic " about that, but rather realistic. I didn't cancel winter or this entire pattern for that matter. I never expected what you expect, hope for a good covering from round one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 maybe we get an 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The GFS actually gives most of MA an inch or so of fringe snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I can't get Jack's passing out of my mind......what a sad thing this is. Reading his obit....he had a brother who died before him. Apparently both of his parents still alive....what awful tragedies these people have endured.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Potential Miller B snowstorm on the 11th-12th with the 00z GFS...just develops a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Some "cold" SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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