Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[OKpowdah]

I'll cover for Kev:

No reason to back down on 3-6"

[H2Otown_WX]

I guess it's time to start praying for a Euro miracle.

[skierinvermont]

GFS ensemble mean is way more interesting than the op.

96 hours it is 990 just 100-200 miles outside the BM ... vs the op way out to sea.

108 hours it is over SW Nova Scotia 982mb.. with .1" qpf in BOS.. more to the N and E.

There are probably a few members smoking CC and NE MA up through NH and ME.

[H2Otown_WX]

GFS ensemble mean is way more interesting than the op.

96 hours it is 990 just 100-200 miles outside the BM ... vs the op way out to sea.

108 hours it is over SW Nova Scotia 982mb.. with .1" qpf in BOS.. more to the N and E.

There are probably a few members smoking CC and NE MA up through NH and ME.

That seems pretty far for 96 hours out. Obviously you and points north and east have a better shot than I but still...

[ORH_wxman]

Potential Miller B snowstorm on the 11th-12th with the 00z GFS...just develops a bit too late.

Euro and GFS ensembles have been hammering the Dec 12-13 time frame.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never expected what you expect, hope for a good covering from round one.

I never expected anything.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS ensemble mean is way more interesting than the op.

96 hours it is 990 just 100-200 miles outside the BM ... vs the op way out to sea.

108 hours it is over SW Nova Scotia 982mb.. with .1" qpf in BOS.. more to the N and E.

There are probably a few members smoking CC and NE MA up through NH and ME.

That is a red flag that the ensembles are more aggressive, so we'll see.

[Logan11]

The one thing that struck me on the GFS is the lack of any real arctic air. Yeah its chilly, but the true arctic is locked way up north generally. With average low temps getting down there in December now - this may not even end up being a below normal period. This does look eerily like last year where places further south will probably see more negative departures relative to their average.

Here is where the arctic air is: Europe in PIcs

That is a red flag that the ensembles are more aggressive, so we'll see.

[nzucker]

The one thing that struck me on the GFS is the lack of any real arctic air. Yeah its chilly, but the true arctic is locked way up north generally. With average low temps getting down there in December now - this may not even end up being a below normal period. This does look eerily like last year where places further south will probably see more negative departures relative to their average.

I think you'll get pretty chilly for the next 10 days, Logan, especially by Day 7/8 when the high pressure currently forming over the Alaska North Slope/Beaufort Sea starts diving south into Canada and bringing 850s around -15C into Upstate NY. The one thing limiting your departures, as you say, is going to be the lack of clear nights since the ULL anchored over the Northeast ensures that it will keep flurrying and staying cloudy. However, you'll still be below average for the first half of December as will most of the Northeast. You're not going to have an arctic outbreak with a huge GoA low since the bitter air cannot punch directly through that low pressure into the CONUS, but there's still a nice block over the North Pole/High Arctic that'll keep us cold as well as the big PNA that develops.

You are absolutely correct that the biggest departures will probably be in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. You can see around 96 on the GFS that the cold air is moving down the Appalachians and not penetrating Upstate NY and NNE as much due to the maritime air presence associated with the retrograding storm over Maine. It'll eventually get to you but 2 days after the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic have already had that airmass. Also, their average highs are so much warmer and the 850s are pretty similar across the board, not much of a gradient which is a surprise for a Nina winter. I'd guess places like RDU and RIC record the biggest negative departures in this pattern.

[Logan11]

Well maybe I can scrap for an inch here, an inch there between the Upper Low and some LES. I'd like to be rid of this depressing brown landscape. At least ot's cold enough for snow. FWIW...this is a stretch of road near Ulm, Germany that I drove numerous times when I was over there visiting family last Summer:

B10 Cam Wish I was back there now.

I think you'll get pretty chilly for the next 10 days, Logan, especially by Day 7/8 when the high pressure currently forming over the Alaska North Slope/Beaufort Sea starts diving south into Canada and bringing 850s around -15C into Upstate NY. The one thing limiting your departures, as you say, is going to be the lack of clear nights since the ULL anchored over the Northeast ensures that it will keep flurrying and staying cloudy. However, you'll still be below average for the first half of December as will most of the Northeast. You're not going to have an arctic outbreak with a huge GoA low since the bitter air cannot punch directly through that low pressure into the CONUS, but there's still a nice block over the North Pole/High Arctic that'll keep us cold as well as the big PNA that develops.

You are absolutely correct that the biggest departures will probably be in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. You can see around 96 on the GFS that the cold air is moving down the Appalachians and not penetrating Upstate NY and NNE as much due to the maritime air presence associated with the retrograding storm over Maine. It'll eventually get to you but 2 days after the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic have already had that airmass. Also, their average highs are so much warmer and the 850s are pretty similar across the board, not much of a gradient which is a surprise for a Nina winter. I'd guess places like RDU and RIC record the biggest negative departures in this pattern.

[Mr Torchey]

The one thing that struck me on the GFS is the lack of any real arctic air. Yeah its chilly, but the true arctic is locked way up north generally. With average low temps getting down there in December now - this may not even end up being a below normal period. This does look eerily like last year where places further south will probably see more negative departures relative to their average.

Here is where the arctic air is: Europe in PIcs

Very true, not only are we not going to get any substantial snow for a while (dec 13th maybe), temps look to be just a degree or two below normal, but in this year of dissapointment, its not really unexpected, hopefully the second half of December will deliver some snow

[CoastalWx]

Euro nothing to write home about.

[CoastalWx]

It's darn cold though.

[CoastalWx]

Man the block comes right back on the models. At least we should have some chances. Euro ensembles still hitting 12/12.

[MaineJayhawk]

Looks like northern Maine mountains do well. I'll be downsloped so expecting only snow showers.

[moneypitmike]

Would that perpetural northerly flow through the northern lakes created a huge overabundance of LES into OH/PA? How unusual would it be to have a sustained northerly flow like that?

I think we'll be ice skating by next weekend, though.

32.1/24.

[moneypitmike]

The 06NAM retros a 976 low toward downeast ME at the end of the run. Drives the 0* 850 line pretty darn close to Portland. Wound up tight.

Rain for a lot of ME?

[moneypitmike]

That's quite the pressure gradient setting up in the northern lakes--hold onto your hats. Death by a hundred flurries in NE. Maybe scrape a couple of inches of many many hours.

31.9/23

[MaineJayhawk]

The 06NAM retros a 976 low toward downeast ME at the end of the run. Drives the 0* 850 line pretty darn close to Portland. Wound up tight.

Rain for a lot of ME?

Yes.

This is not going to be a terribly interesting storm if you like to shovel or plow.

[MaineJayhawk]

Active pattern in the long range. Should be some chances in there.

[moneypitmike]

Yes.

This is not going to be a terribly interesting storm from the winter side of things.

I'm curious to see how it plays out region-wide and of course, imby. Hopefully, we can get some decent shower activity to amount to something of note. Though given the duration of time and the winds, I suspect that for many folks, whatever comes down will perpetually be blown into what will be tiny drift areas and keep a lot bare ground intact..

I found the BOX AFD to be about the most mundane thing I've ever read. lol

[moneypitmike]

Maybe no one's awake yet, but I'm surpised there's not much interpretation of the changes on the 0z NAM. It 's latter portion is quite different than the 00z run.

What might that mean, hmmmmm?

31.6/23

[MaineJayhawk]

I'm curious to see how it plays out region-wide and of course, imby. Hopefully, we can get some decent shower activity to amount to something of note. Though given the duration of time and the winds, I suspect that for many folks, whatever comes down will perpetually be blown into what will be tiny drift areas and keep a lot bare ground intact..

I found the BOX AFD to be about the most mundane thing I've ever read. lol

I edited my original quote. It is an interesting thing to follow from a meteorological standpoint but if you're looking to shovel or plow this probably isn't going to be your storm unless you live within shouting distance of the Rev. I'm looking ahead to the next one in the 12th -13th timeframe for a plowable storm.

[moneypitmike]

I edited my original quote. It is an interesting thing to follow from a meteorological standpoint but if you're looking to shovel or plow this probably isn't going to be your storm unless you live within shouting distance of the Rev. I'm looking ahead to the next one in the 12th -13th timeframe for a plowable storm.

Snow for Mt. Tolland?

[MaineJayhawk]

Maybe no one's awake yet, but I'm surpised there's not much interpretation of the changes on the 0z NAM. It 's latter portion is quite different than the 00z run.

What might that mean, hmmmmm?

31.6/23

A definite trend south with the first system. Last night I noted the same thing, the 0z had shifted significantly south from 18z. So that's two big leaps. Perhaps I was too quick to pull the LAME card for this. I had seen this run at 4:30 but then forgot about it as I focused on the 6z GFS run, so gimme a

[MaineJayhawk]

Snow for Mt. Tolland?

3-6" hath been locked.

[Professional Lurker]

Blocking pattern FTL. Many, many fan guns at the ready FTW though...

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow for Mt. Tolland?

Snow for all of SNE...you guys are weak if you'ver given up

[moneypitmike]

3-6" hath been locked.

Somewhere there's a reference to the Sermon on the Mount lingering. But--I'm not quite sure what it is.

Perhaps, Blessed are the patient, for they will need their snowblowers.

[moneypitmike]

Blocking pattern FTL. Many, many fan guns at the ready FTW though...

Mike--I see the windmill make the homepage of the Recorder (the closest I get to that rag. lol).