AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 23z RUC at hr 21 has the low in N/NE OK it looks like. By Hour 24 it's just over/north of Springfield, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 cautiously optimistic. I'm overkill 9000 optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What are the ratios for SEMI? 10 to 1 looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 csnavy or other mets, do you have any thoughts about the ice potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm overkill 9000 optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What are the ratios for SEMI? Probably some flakeage like what's falling on your beanie cap.. For some reason every time I see your avatar I want to run up behind you and yank it off and throw it on the roof... Seems I'll never grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Now that I'm on the East Coast I can only use that excuse until about 3 days out from the event. Congrats on the promotion. It was partially a joke since the talk has calmed down quite a bit. When things were headed S the alarms were going off in some peoples heads and the typical "wait till it is sampled" talk became boisterous. Naturally if the storm trends a particular way in favor of most folks the talk decreases Just an observation I am not lumping everyone together--it was mostly a friendly joke. As for this system--details need to be worked out with a lot of things--but I don't see this taking a jog well S again and suppressed like the weak solutions a couple days ago. We can clearly see in initial fields that the wave out in the Pacific is stronger and more intact than previously forecasted--no RAOB sampling is needed to make that observation at least. Per GRR that happened earlier and probably the main reason talk of it has ceased. AS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SYSTEM...NO BIG SURPRISE...BUT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE POSITION OF THE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN MODEL. THE GRR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH THE SOUTHERN CWA MOST IMPACTED. AT THIS POINT LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS WITH A 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM BTL EAST TO JXN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF THE TRACK CHANGES AT ALL WHICH IS THE MAIN POINT OF CONTENTION AT THIS POINT. AT LEAST THE UPPER WAVE IS FINALLY OVER THE LOWER 48 NOW...MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. Officially, last Monday, but I got notification of the promotion around Christmas. I couldn't find the Midwest member map to make a post so everyone knew I wasn't actually in the Quad Cities anymore. Whether anyone likes it or not, I'll continue posting on this side if only for my own curiosity in the events. It will be great to see you adding to the convos here still. So keep posting! Unlike a few i wont get overly excited till i see the 00z runs. I am a bit more optimistic though. I still wanna see exactly where this thing lands in the Plains at for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 csnavy or other mets, do you have any thoughts about the ice potential? I think there might be a small zone of sleet and/or ice but the zone wont be too large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think there might be a small zone of sleet and/or ice but the zone wont be too large. Yeah, the SREF really starts to hit that narrow zone from just southeast of Toledo on off to the northeast (all the way to GYX in fact ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think there might be a small zone of sleet and/or ice but the zone wont be too large. Have to admit that I'm getting a little more concerned here. I guess we should wait another run or two before trying to nail things down more but it looks like there could be a significant amount of precip that falls with temps AOB 32 in a narrow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to admit that I'm getting a little more concerned here. I guess we should wait another run or two before trying to nail things down more but it looks like there could be a significant amount of precip that falls with temps AOB 32 in a narrow zone. Yeah the concern with this one would be with it coming at night time you would have just general nocturnal cooling at the surface, as this doesn't have amazing WAA with it. So temps would at the very least stay steady or even back off a bit as nighttime occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SPC has a fun start for us here in the Midwest this Wednesday evening in their outlook. ...MIDWEST... WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN ATTENDANT 30-35 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND AROUND 6.5-7 DEG C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO TSTMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL IL. HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXPAND EWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IND AND WRN OH...BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS CHICAGO AND THE IND/MI BORDER OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. It's interesting to read this when it is currently 24 in Goshen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Have to admit that I'm getting a little more concerned here. I guess we should wait another run or two before trying to nail things down more but it looks like there could be a significant amount of precip that falls with temps AOB 32 in a narrow zone. agree, as today, we forecast for 41, but never hit it, glacier didn't melt, just worry that temps will not go as high as needed, and ice will be an issue. This may be the storm that kills us, ice wise, whereas the big blizz was forecast to be ice, and stayed as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 agree, as today, we forecast for 41, but never hit it, glacier didn't melt, just worry that temps will not go as high as needed, and ice will be an issue. This may be the storm that kills us, ice wise, whereas the big blizz was forecast to be ice, and stayed as sleet. The warm layer looks pretty deep and there is no very cold low level layer in this case. Not ruling out sleet but I think it may be more zr vs. sleet in the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Per GRR that happened earlier and probably the main reason talk of it has ceased. The wave at 12Z was still off the coast of Baja California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If you guys want, go in the chat again and we'll have a general chat and discuss the 0z runs etc again. We did this last night, and it was pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The wave at 12Z was still off the coast of Baja California. For the 00z runs half of it will be over the lower 48, but the other half will still be over the Pacific then move into Mexico before finally entering the US just in time for or after the 12z runs tomorrow. So it won't be fully sampled until tomorrow, but the sampling gets better with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If you guys want, go in the chat again and we'll have a general chat and discuss the 0z runs etc again. We did this last night, and it was pretty fun. Which chat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 On American. The chat is back up and working. Go up towards the top, and click "chat" and everything should be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol, hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If 0z Nam is like 18z, Dtx issue watches tonight or in the am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol, hoosier I know how to get to it...I wasn't sure if he meant this one, Yahoo, AIM, or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 If 0z Nam is like 18z, Dtx issue watches tonight or in the am? AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The wave at 12Z was still off the coast of Baja California. I should have looked myself and thus assumed it made it into the 12z runs. Oh well. I don't think there will be any major changes. Ofcourse for some a small shift can be major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know how to get to it...I wasn't sure if he meant this one, Yahoo, AIM, or whatever. ahh, i thought you were oblivious to the existence of the amwx chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ahh, i thought you were oblivious to the existence of the amwx chat. That would be pretty bad. I've been in there a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 AM Yeah rarely do offices issue a watch so soon and will wait till the AM package rolls out. They always atleast wanna see the GFS. I think i have only seen them issue that quick a couple of times and in all cases the storm was nearly on top. Ended up with a 6-8hr watch that went to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 21Z SREF stronger/NW...992 in SE OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Cat's out of the bag. 21z SREFS go north. Mean looks like it's a touch south of the 18z NAM track, while the 15z SREF mean hugged the OH river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think there might be a small zone of sleet and/or ice but the zone wont be too large. Agreed. This looks like a snow or rain storm -- obviously there might be a slush zone in there, but shouldn't be a lot of icing. Just not enough cold air around. Temps will probably be in the 28 to 33 degree range even in the snowy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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