yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW... 18z GFS ensemble mean at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I blew it up to 400%... the 0 line is south of DC by about 30-40 miles... -3c is right over DC or just north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I blew it up to 400%... the 0 line is south of DC by about 30-40 miles... -3c is right over DC or just north Surface 0C line is probably further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I blew it up to 400%... the 0 line is south of DC by about 30-40 miles... -3c is right over DC or just north now THAT looks like the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I get the feeling there is going to be quite a bit of sleet vs. snow with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I blew it up to 400%... the 0 line is south of DC by about 30-40 miles... -3c is right over DC or just north same as earlier tho.. you are counting stuff that falls before the 0c line moves thru on this map. how much is unknown but it's not that much different than the op http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_036m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p12_036m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 no matter what lwx says you gentlemen disagree. Its funny dt doesn;t think there is a """snowball chance""" of any snow at all, says its too warm, and lwx says some snow but very little accum.. Frankly LWX has dropped the ball a lot and ended up playing catch up. Mount Holly IMO is a better forecast office. Not to say their forecast will pan out but at this point they believe snow adv. will be likely for their eastern shore counties, most of DE and southern NJ. In defense of LWX thinking, these situations often do not pan out as the cold air typically takes longer to get in than the models would have you believe...so I am somewhat skeptical. I could see rain and 35 and just some wet snow at the very end just as easily as a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Frankly LWX has dropped the ball a lot and ended up playing catch up. Mount Holly IMO is a better forecast office. Not to say their forecast will pan out but at this point they believe snow adv. will be likely for their eastern shore counties, most of DE and southern NJ. In defense of LWX thinking, these situations often do not pan out as the cold air typically takes longer to get in than the models would have you believe...so I am somewhat skeptical. I could see rain and 35 and just some wet snow at the very end just as easily as a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall. Frankly, that is your opinion, and your not a public servant forecasting , either!!! Lets see how you''d do in their position. Its easy to criticize others. Why don't you tyry to be accountable for your forecasts, instead of here where there is no responsibility whatsoever!!! edit, ever notice how humble wes is. He knows the pressure. He is an example of a true professional. !!!!A well trained, educated professional and trusted and liked by all on this board!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 same as earlier tho.. you are counting stuff that falls before the 0c line moves thru on this map. how much is unknown but it's not that much different than the op http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_036m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p12_036m.gif Isn't the surface 0C line further south tho? GFS has the surface 0C line almost 30 miles south of the 850 0C. Could make a huge difference at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Isn't the surface 0C line further south tho? GFS has the surface 0C line almost 30 miles south of the 850 0C. Could make a huge difference at DCA. i think most models have the surface cooling quicker.. which is why there is sleet in the forecast. i just get the impression people forget the lines are at the end of the period as is the green on the map--so it's not like a green blob that's incoming once we have cooled enough. the next panels of all these "sweet" maps are not super amazing -- yeah they have like .1" or so all snow etc. but these panels are partly or heavily liquid depending on where you are north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i think most models have the surface cooling quicker.. which is why there is sleet in the forecast. i just get the impression people forget the lines are at the end of the period as is the green on the map--so it's not like a green blob that's incoming once we have cooled enough. the next panels of all these "sweet" maps are not super amazing -- yeah they have like .1" or so all snow etc. but these panels are partly or heavily liquid depending on where you are north to south. L track still ideal for at least some frozen. Drop a few MBs tomorrow night and things get a lot more interesting. 2-3" for Moco seems like a fair call. It will be interesting to see where highs top out tomorrow afternoon. I doubt 60's will verify. L-M 50's would be better for our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Frankly, that is your opinion, and your not a public servant forecasting , either!!! Lets see how you''d do in their position. Its easy to criticize others. Why don't you tyry to be accountable for your forecasts, instead of here where there is no responsibility whatsoever!!! edit, ever notice how humble wes is. He knows the pressure. He is an example of a true professional. !!!!A well trained, educated professional and trusted and liked by all on this board!!! umm, dude chill. i said IMO Mount Holly is a better FO. yes its my opinion. and i did say i see LWX's perspective in this situation. as a whole i think they tend to go too conservative on snow events. better to error in the other direction than be afraid of forecasting too much snow and it not panning out though i would think. and i don't make forecasts lmao. Have you been drinking tonight? ;] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says "LET'S DO THIS LEEROOOOOOOOYYY JEENNNNKIINNNNSS!" Now, I would take all of those higher totals down a notch myself... we'll see what I get out later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 L track still ideal for at least some frozen. Drop a few MBs tomorrow night and things get a lot more interesting. 2-3" for Moco seems like a fair call. It will be interesting to see where highs top out tomorrow afternoon. I doubt 60's will verify. L-M 50's would be better for our snow chances. im sure we'll get some snow. im not sure how much tomorrow's temps really matter but lower is probably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says "LET'S DO THIS LEEROOOOOOOOYYY JEENNNNKIINNNNSS!" Now, I would take all of those higher totals down a notch myself... we'll see what I get out later tonight. book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 im sure we'll get some snow. im not sure how much tomorrow's temps really matter but lower is probably better. With such a small window anything helps. The quicker we can get to 32 the less wasting of limited snow. The width of the stripe is too crazy but it keeps painting us white. Is it too much to ask that MD/Nova gets the jackpot just once this winter? Just once?!? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says "LET'S DO THIS LEEROOOOOOOOYYY JEENNNNKIINNNNSS!" LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 With such a small window anything helps. The quicker we can get to 32 the less wasting of limited snow. The width of the stripe is too crazy but it keeps painting us white. Is it too much to ask that MD/Nova gets the jackpot just once this winter? Just once?!? lol "yes", if you are on this Board and live anywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS says "LET'S DO THIS LEEROOOOOOOOYYY JEENNNNKIINNNNSS!" Now, I would take all of those higher totals down a notch myself... we'll see what I get out later tonight. Epic. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 "yes", if you are on this Board and live anywhere else True on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It is snowing in Hagerstown. The atmosphere is really in a muscular mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be quite interesting temp wise across LWX. It could be 65 in CHO but 45 in FDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i think most models have the surface cooling quicker.. which is why there is sleet in the forecast. i just get the impression people forget the lines are at the end of the period as is the green on the map--so it's not like a green blob that's incoming once we have cooled enough. the next panels of all these "sweet" maps are not super amazing -- yeah they have like .1" or so all snow etc. but these panels are partly or heavily liquid depending on where you are north to south. Ah, I see. So it would be good to look at the previous 0c Line then. Brain fart I guess we do start above freezing, how fast the line moves is what Id like to know. North and central MD is probably all snow if 18z GFS OP has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It is snowing in Hagerstown. The atmosphere is really in a muscular mood. I just looked outside and I have a wet snow/rain mix, with snow starting to predominate!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snow here in Hanover as well with a temp of 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 looks like mainly rain now dry air baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I was just driving down rt 2 from severna park to arnold and had a rain/sleet/snow mix...with a temp that went from 45-39... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 21z SREFs have 850 line crossing DCA around hr 30... by hr 33 its south of EZF and the -4c 850 line is just north of DC. 2m 0c temp crosses through DCA right around hr 32-33 and slowly sags south This is the 12 hr QPF from hr 30-42... i would expect hr 30-32 would be rain transitioning to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like a solid 0.25"+ of snow QPF for most of central and northern MD, WV panhandle and extreme NVA. Need to wait for the plumes to load to get an idea of the spread. Agree. Quick question... if surface is 30-32 degrees... but 850s are -4 to -6... does that make a difference on SR's? Or would they still be 10-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM has really trended colder since last night's 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.