WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Agree. Quick question... if surface is 30-32 degrees... but 850s are -4 to -6... does that make a difference on SR's? Or would they still be 10-1? It could...depends on the entire profile. Ratios are fickle and depend on a whole variety of factors. The warm ground won't help. If the profile is the right temperature for dendrites in the snow crystal growth areas and the profile is only at/just above freezing at the immediate surface, it might still be around 10-1. But with warm ground and marginal profiles, it would probably be less. Also...we have an obs thread people...please keep them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 00z NAM at 24 hrs -- 0c 850 line over top FDK and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM has really trended colder since last night's 0z. NAM looks juicy and colder through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM at 30 looks pretty darn good, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Geez... look at the 850 map in VA at 30 -- http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_030l.gif -6c 850 at DCA... +1 or so in CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM at 30 looks pretty darn good, I think. yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM at 30 looks pretty darn good, I think. Yeah it's a little better than 18z which is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ian... are we good? Are we ok with this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ian... are we good? Are we ok with this map? YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 BWI NAM MOS shows .30" falls the 6 hrs ending 36 hrs, which is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM has to be in the Euro camp now! Wow. We get at least .25-.50 after the changover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow! 0Z NAM looks fantastic for most of central/northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0Z NAM has my area close to 0.75" of frozen precip. Can't wait to see soundings. We're getting into the NAM's wheelhouse, if it has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 BWI NAM MOS shows .30" falls the 6 hrs ending 36 hrs, which is all snow How much is snow from 24-30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow! 0Z NAM looks fantastic for most of central/northern MD. I think NAM in time will slip south with its heaviest precip trending to the Euro, but I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 nice map http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_030l.gif nam looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How much is snow from 24-30? don't know with what I have now we'll have to wait for hourly soundings that won't be available until after the run is complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Soundings should be VERY interesting with these QPF's DCA/IAD around 0.5 QPF in hrs 24-36 BWI is prob .65 i would guess FDK/HGR .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, that'll work. If the GFS follows the Euro and NAM leads, probably watches up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think NAM in time will slip south with its heaviest precip trending to the Euro, but I could be wrong There's not much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hey - I am away and don't have much time to check myself. Anyone want to give me a quick update of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 At BWi, the changeover is almost at 03Z but dc is clearly sleet with a changeover somewhere around 06Z. By 06Z the warmest temp in the warm layer is 0.2C which probably would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's not much time left. I wonder what LWX thinks now that the NAM on THIS RUN sorta looks like the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 At BWi, the changeover is almost at 03Z but dc is clearly sleet with a changeover somewhere around 06Z. By 06Z the warmest temp in the warm layer is 0.2C which probably would be snow. the panel after was juicier in this area tho which is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 the panel after was juicier in this area tho which is nice to see. Exactly...NAM would give DC 0.25" of snow QPF after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 at 27 hr NAM, 850 - 0 line is south of BWI by 5-10 miles and north of DCA by about the same distance surface freezing temp is right over BWI and north of DCA by 15-20 miles so snow should start soon after that time frame (10PM tomorrow night) at BWI thicknesses, however, are around 542/543, so there is probably a warmish layer, just not sure where until I look at the soundings this info is off of maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0Z NAM snowfall map looks MUCH better. snow cover through entire state of MD now, including southern MD and lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0Z NAM snowfall map looks MUCH better. snow cover through entire state of MD now, including southern MD and lower eastern shore. Could you link me to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Could you link me to that? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=00&fhour=36¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=text&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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