IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 334 PM EST THU FEB 17 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-182045- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 334 PM EST THU FEB 17 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH SATURDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND DRY FUELS. IN ADDITION...BLOWOUT TIDES MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE OCEAN FRONT AND ADJACENT BACK BAYS. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MIGHT BRING TWO SHOTS AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Its pretty much over and has been for a couple of weeks now. Sure they are sporadic model runs showing snow but absolutely no real consensus whatsoever. The next couple of weeks look warm. Once it gets past the first week of March we're pretty shot save for very rare instances of snow. Nobody wants to accept it but you just need to. I disagree - the storm threats are there (Euro has a small snow event.) Today is beautiful, but no reason to declare winter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Its pretty much over and has been for a couple of weeks now. Sure they are sporadic model runs showing snow but absolutely no real consensus whatsoever. The next couple of weeks look warm. Once it gets past the first week of March we're pretty shot save for very rare instances of snow. Nobody wants to accept it but you just need to. FAIL edit: maybe IYBY you have a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Its pretty much over and has been for a couple of weeks now. Sure they are sporadic model runs showing snow but absolutely no real consensus whatsoever. The next couple of weeks look warm. Once it gets past the first week of March we're pretty shot save for very rare instances of snow. Nobody wants to accept it but you just need to. you might want to check the models before you make such bold statements. :troll: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I just looked at the 10 day Euro yikes! that's a LOT of cold air headed our way from Canada that's cold as we!! Its pretty much over and has been for a couple of weeks now. Sure they are sporadic model runs showing snow but absolutely no real consensus whatsoever. The next couple of weeks look warm. Once it gets past the first week of March we're pretty shot save for very rare instances of snow. Nobody wants to accept it but you just need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 And as Ian just said in the same thread, how many times has that verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 the 12z euro is a 3-6 inch snow event on tuesday, with the 3 inches around the del river from phl to stroudsburg....and the 6 further out toward mdt....after that storm temps go below normal for a day or two then above normal with 60-70 degree temps next sat out ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 And as Ian just said in the same thread, how many times has that verified? yes but he said the next couple of weeks look warm......how do you say this when the models (right or wrong) say otherwise?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS looks pretty good for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS looks pretty good for some snow. Looks like 2-4" or so.. more in MD/DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 per sv snow maps. 2-4 from pa turnpike north, 4-8 pa turnpike south...8-12 from dc to balt to dov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 per sv snow maps. 2-4 from pa turnpike north, 4-8 pa turnpike south...8-12 from dc to balt to dov Perhaps winter is not over with yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Feeling like this is going to be like the Feb 5 storm last year. inching north as we get closer. Like where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Feeling like this is going to be like the Feb 5 storm last year. inching north as we get closer. Like where we sit right now. Except there's a lot less moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Perhaps winter is not over with yet. I think if we get one more blast of snow, most people will be happy. Once into march its really hit or miss for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Its pretty much over and has been for a couple of weeks now. Sure they are sporadic model runs showing snow but absolutely no real consensus whatsoever. The next couple of weeks look warm. Once it gets past the first week of March we're pretty shot save for very rare instances of snow. Nobody wants to accept it but you just need to. Pretty strongly disagree with this. After this warm up and a brief one next week, it looks like we're headed back to a below normal temperature pattern. We might not get this shot (I think it might end up south), but there ought to be plenty of wintry chances through the Ides of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Pretty strongly disagree with this. After this warm up and a brief one next week, it looks like we're headed back to a below normal temperature pattern. We might not get this shot (I think it might end up south), but there ought to be plenty of wintry chances through the Ides of March. you think so? To me it seems like a back and forth pattern. If storms are timed with cold there could be wintry weather. The teleconnections to me all point towards a western trof east coast ridge. pos nao,ao, epo...-pna... Are you basing this off the tropical forcing of the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think if we get one more blast of snow, most people will be happy. Once into march its really hit or miss for snow. Yeah, let's see if we can squeeze out one more 3-6 incher. It looks like after this threat we will have to wait until early march as the models are bringing a pretty nasty -PNA with E US ridging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 you think so? To me it seems like a back and forth pattern. If storms are timed with cold there could be wintry weather. The teleconnections to me all point towards a western trof east coast ridge. pos nao,ao, epo...-pna... Are you basing this off the tropical forcing of the mjo? I'm back on the -AO bandwagon with the biggest Asian mountain torques of the season and the coronal mass ejection that's due to arrive tonight (that's likely not in the models yet). If it doesn't materialize, I agree, it looks like a roller coaster for our area with a -PNA/-NAO configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 you think so? To me it seems like a back and forth pattern. If storms are timed with cold there could be wintry weather. The teleconnections to me all point towards a western trof east coast ridge. pos nao,ao, epo...-pna... Are you basing this off the tropical forcing of the mjo? I agree that the storm track doesn't look great for the East Coast I-95, but there's definitely going to be some intense cold shots as that ridging over Alaska and eventually the Bering Strait flexes its muscle. I don't love the looks of the Atlantic for a huge coastal but there may be a lot of west-east moving storms with this area being a battleground between the PV that's running the pattern in Canada/NNE and the SE ridge. So there'll definitely be some chances for PHL north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm back on the -AO bandwagon with the biggest Asian mountain torques of the season and the coronal mass ejection that's due to arrive tonight (that's likely not in the models yet). If it doesn't materialize, I agree, it looks like a roller coaster for our area with a -PNA/-NAO configuration. ahh okay. I was looking at the mjo, some keep it in the circle of death others bring it out in phase 7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah, I should have clarified: coastal season is just about over with the SE ridge looking to remain in place. That doesn't mean we can't get cold/snow. Good point, nzucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Time and time again this winter this has failed to materialize. I'll believe it when I see it inside of 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm back on the -AO bandwagon with the biggest Asian mountain torques of the season and the coronal mass ejection that's due to arrive tonight (that's likely not in the models yet). If it doesn't materialize, I agree, it looks like a roller coaster for our area with a -PNA/-NAO configuration. There's going to be a pretty sharp gradient the next few weeks from cold to warm across the Mid Atlantic if the -AO fires the battlezone is more Carolinas and perhaps us unless suppression wins...if not, it's over us. I think we tend to ride variable until month's end and then go cold for early March (typical Nina climo but perhaps a bit more intense on the cold). The Euro seems like it's wanting to go that direction after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 To be clear, the -AO won't materialize, if it does, until around the start of March. But there will be an awful lot of cold air up in Canada to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 To be clear, the -AO won't materialize, if it does, until around the start of March. But there will be an awful lot of cold air up in Canada to tap. Ugh...the last thing I want is a cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 didn't see the 18z gfs snowmap posted, but here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 didn't see the 18z gfs snowmap posted, but here it is Nice 6 inches. LOL. I'll take it. And btw nice long skywarn spotter class this evening. I am surprised to see that many people actually showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 gfs for the region is snow for northern burbs and lehigh valley 2-4 looks like.... ice to accumulating snow for philly metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gfs for the region is snow for northern burbs and lehigh valley 2-4 looks like.... ice to accumulating snow for philly metro area... How about out west towards Lancaster and Harrisburg? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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