Guest Pamela Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 RGEM looks like a decent snow event Monday night / Tuesday morning for the northern 2/3rds of Connecticut....maybe far northern Westchester as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Most of the analogs are terrible with maybe one or two showing a SECS/MECS for each time frame over the east. The best one so far is through 72hrs with 2/13/03 showing up as the #5 analog based on the 500mb setup. Overall though its #14. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The trough is actually going negative at hrs 24-30 on the new GFS but that northern stream energy refuses to phase in, although that secondary low is much further south compared to 18z. This one might be painfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 by hr 36 its way amplified but because it missed the phase with the PV, it cann't round the corner sharp enough and its still well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Same amount as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 48 that leftover energy is lowering heights along the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 by hr 54 the PV looks less supressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I hear the shortwave is stronger than modeled....is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so close yet so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i guess this threat is just about dead as everyone has abandoned ship...craig allen today said light rain transitioning to light snow for the coast with a slushy coating and 1-3 north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z Nam is really awful. I can't believe how painfully close it is to a phase. The coast barely sees any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's not so much that it's not completely phasing anymore, it's the artic front pushing it offshore. It's a Devils advocate though because without the artic front, there would have been big mixng issues. Our best hope is for a 06z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i guess this threat is just about dead as everyone has abandoned ship...craig allen today said light rain transitioning to light snow for the coast with a slushy coating and 1-3 north and west... Hmmm....I'm gonna keep my eye on it, wouldn't take too much for me to get into some action. Action being heavier rain or snow, that inverted trough keeps this storm from drawing in the colder air by the looks of it. I don't buy that inverted trough BS, see it all the time and it rarely works out as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM is busting badly on ongoing mod-heavy precip. over the western FL Panhandle, SE AL, GA, and coastal SC. That's the precip. that the NAM shows coming very close to LI but staying offshore. Compare the current radar over those areas to the NAM 3 hour precip forecast valid 15z. The GFS has been handling things much better but still underestimating the precip. over FL/AL/GA/SC. 12z Nam is really awful. I can't believe how painfully close it is to a phase. The coast barely sees any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM is busting badly on ongoing mod-heavy precip. over the western FL Panhandle, SE AL, GA, and coastal SC. That's the precip. that the NAM shows coming very close to LI but staying offshore. Compare the current radar over those areas to the NAM 3 hour precip forecast valid 15z. The GFS has been handling things much better but still underestimating the precip. over FL/AL/GA/SC. How does the WV loop look in terms of the possible phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hard to tell, but the WV loop certainly indicates the baroclinic leaf that's igniting the precip. over FL/GA/AL is headed well NW of all guidance besides the RGEM. Nice 24 hour WV loop here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 How does the WV loop look in terms of the possible phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hard to tell, but the WV loop certainly indicates the baroclinic leaf that's igniting the precip. over FL/GA/AL is headed well NW of all guidance besides the RGEM. Nice 24 hour WV loop here: http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 6z RGEM basically gives our area zero now. It pulled everything way east. Only the 0z JMA is left that gives our area appreciable precip. .50"-.75" But at 12z, JMA had over 1" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 The 0Z RGEM is much closer to reality on the precip. over GA/AL than the 6z. 0z: 6z: 6z RGEM basically gives our area zero now. It pulled everything way east. Only the 0z JMA is left that gives our area appreciable precip. .50"-.75" But at 12z, JMA had over 1" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z RGEM has nothing over the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 12Z RGEM is busting almost as badly as the 6z on precip. over GA/SC. Also note the low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is already down to to 1010 mb, 2-3 mb deeper than all guidance indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The radar returns in south-central Pa, associated with the s/w over Tennessee, and the returns in SE Va associated with the surface low developing off the SE coast do not match the NAM simulated radar very well currently. I'm not sure that it matters much because precip isn't reaching the ground in many areas and the surface temperatures are warm. But it's clear most models were slow to catch up to the strength of the s/w that is currently dropping unexpectedly heavy snow in parts of Kentucky. This deformation snow should weaken as it movies northeast (as the s/w dampens), but with significant model errors the past few days it makes radar watching more interesting. I think CPA through the southern tier and up into VT could receive some moderate accumulations. It still looks like NJ, SENY, and most of SNE will be sandwiched between the two areas of precipitation, but it will be interesting to watch the situation unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 well, the setup on the water vapor loop looks pretty good to me. On a side note, the 18z GFS has completley gotten rid of the late week threat. (watery grave in the GOM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm surprised that no one is posting on this topic. radar looks healthy across VA and NC, including areas where the 18z NAM had no precip. also some (virga?) popping up over SE PA. 23z RUC looks to have a decent shield of steady precip affecting the tri-state area for several hours, but won't know until 00z graphics come out about just how heavy it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 34* & Lgt Snow.. Could get alittle interesting up here tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Any precip the NYC area gets tonight will be rain. It is way too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I heard two rumbles of thunder within the past hour. Edit: Make that three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 35 here 925's above 0c so any snow that falls will be wet and wont accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 flurries overnight, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ole man winter threw just about everything he had at us the month of Jan. it was awesome just about everything fell out of the sky if the pattern has changed which it seemed it has so be it we all have plenty of pics and some funny stories see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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