Scummyratguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 temps hit 31 and are back down to 29 here with a high cloud deck coming in. whacky day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The weather channel vs. accuweather. I don't even think the NWS has this much snow for central and northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 First winter storm warning of the year Now if only you guys to the south can join in on the snow fun just say no to Warm air aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Our upcoming storm is kinda scary.... but not as scary as the southwest US: Why am I the only one that found this humorous? Maybe I've been doing this too long already??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 per the 18z NAM that first batch of snow tonight mainly to our northern's friends. Not sure why CTP thinks 2-4" for my region. My guess would be 1" MAYBE 2 at best. Still think this is mainly a rain event for Tuesday night into Wednesday for MDT south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why am I the only one that found this humorous? Maybe I've been doing this too long already??? BOO -lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why am I the only one that found this humorous? Maybe I've been doing this too long already??? heh, I just noticed it spelled out "boo".....slow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 per the 18z NAM that first batch of snow tonight mainly to our northern's friends. Not sure why CTP thinks 2-4" for my region. My guess would be 1" MAYBE 2 at best. Still think this is mainly a rain event for Tuesday night into Wednesday for MDT south. Yea I dont think we will see much 2-4" down here... but with cold air damming it will not be that easy to force the cold air at the surface to retreat fast enough to be all rain. We will see a good bit of sleet/freezing rain before it gets warm enough at the surface to be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea I dont think we will see much 2-4" down here... but with cold air damming it will not be that easy to force the cold air at the surface to retreat fast enough to be all rain. We will see a good bit of sleet/freezing rain before it gets warm enough at the surface to be rain i was thinking we may struggle to get 2", but i do think we are in for the sleet and ice. I too think the cold will stick around longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM came in decently warmer than its previous runs. Does this mean it has caved to the warmer models? Possibly. Won't know until 00z I think, but with the 15z SREFs warmer as well it seems pretty likely. If the cold solution is no longer on the table, it means a lot more ice (coverage wise) than the older runs of the NAM. UNV definitely gets in on major icing. Places along the PA/MD border still get significant ice, but the risk of getting above freezing is somewhat higher as the heaviest of the precip moves in. Snapshot at hour 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Quite a potpourri...(bold added by me. That part would suck) .A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LONG DURATION AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND ROUND OF STEADY AND HEAVIER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ONE TWO PUNCH FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. AFTER UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THICK AND DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND BATCH OF STEADY... AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BE MAINLY SLEET AND...OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO PERIODS OF LIGHTER SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL...AND SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN THICKNESS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THICK ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TREE LIMBS WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One thing I am worried about ice wise, is if we do warm up only slightly over 32F wednesday... will it be enough to not add on to ice accumulation? How warm do we need to warm up to end the threat. If about a half an inch of ice accumulates on everything, it could be 34-36F above the surface and be raining but still freeze and continue to add to the ice for a period of time. Just because airports report over 32 doesn't mean we are in the clear if a good amount of ice has already formed. We still never seem to have more than a brief period of southerly wind during the storm for a strong push of warm air northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 all of PA in a winter storm warning...i wonder how many times or if that's every happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM came in decently warmer than its previous runs. Does this mean it has caved to the warmer models? Possibly. Won't know until 00z I think, but with the 15z SREFs warmer as well it seems pretty likely. If the cold solution is no longer on the table, it means a lot more ice (coverage wise) than the older runs of the NAM. UNV definitely gets in on major icing. Places along the PA/MD border still get significant ice, but the risk of getting above freezing is somewhat higher as the heaviest of the precip moves in. Snapshot at hour 39: Trends are for WAA to win out earlier than later. Anytime there is a significant snowstorm in Chicagoland (Blizzard watch right now) doesn't really bode well for us in Southern PA. I am going to hold serve for now that we get maybe an 1" or 2" tonight and tomorrow. With Rain being the predominant precip type later Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will tell you the worse fall I ever had on the ice occured is a storm similar to this. I brkoe both arms in the same fall. the sleet and freezing rain both formed a layer of ice on the roads and as I started to clean the snow, the water from the rain coated the ice and made it very slick. IT will be a mess tomorrow and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_084.shtml 18z NAM looks primed at 84 but it is the 84HR 18z NAM Nice southeast ridge signature to keep this more northernly as oppose to south and east. still got a chance at a decent event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trends are for WAA to win out earlier than later. Anytime there is a significant snowstorm in Chicagoland (Blizzard watch right now) doesn't really bode well for us in Southern PA. I am going to hold serve for now that we get maybe an 1" or 2" tonight and tomorrow. With Rain being the predominant precip type later Tuesday into Wednesday. plain rain as the predominant precip type isn't being advertised for hershey by almost any model...maybe towards the end but still see a fairly good amount of icing...when you have a 1030 mb high in SE canada, cold air tends to stay locked in place longer(such as feb 14 2007). also with a good amount of the precip falling over night even if temps are 30-32 it's still going to wreak havoc as there will be no sun radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trends are for WAA to win out earlier than later. Anytime there is a significant snowstorm in Chicagoland (Blizzard watch right now) doesn't really bode well for us in Southern PA. I am going to hold serve for now that we get maybe an 1" or 2" tonight and tomorrow. With Rain being the predominant precip type later Tuesday into Wednesday. I hope you're right. We're right on the hairy edge at this point. Lancaster temp is 27 at the airport but the dewpoint is only 5. Lots of evaporational cooling gonna happen before actual precip breaks out. As plenty of posters have already said, we've seen this before and the cold air is pretty darn stubborn. 2 or 3 degrees could make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 plain rain as the predominant precip type isn't being advertised for hershey by almost any model...maybe towards the end but still see a fairly good amount of icing...when you have a 1030 mb high in SE canada, cold air tends to stay locked in place longer(such as feb 14 2007). also with a good amount of the precip falling over night even if temps are 30-32 it's still going to wreak havoc as there will be no sun radiation. Understood. 18z NAM looks awfully warm though and so was the EURO. I am just feeling more as if we WAA wins out with the 850 low so far west. Actually with how damaging ICE can be...I am hoping if anything that it is sleet or rain not freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trends are for WAA to win out earlier than later. Anytime there is a significant snowstorm in Chicagoland (Blizzard watch right now) doesn't really bode well for us in Southern PA. I am going to hold serve for now that we get maybe an 1" or 2" tonight and tomorrow. With Rain being the predominant precip type later Tuesday into Wednesday. Chicago got nearly a foot from the Valentine 2007 storm. Not sure about using that as a benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Glad to see you guys in Northern and Cental Pa are getting somthing this time. For once I'm routing for the cold air to stay north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Glad to see you guys in Northern and Cental Pa are getting somthing this time. For once I'm routing for the cold air to stay north. if it isnt snow i would rather get NO storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. I-80 corridor and possibly even down the Susquehanna could be in for some major icing. Ground temps almost always warm up slower than expected and the cold air puts up a fight particularly in areas with snowcovered ground, so sleet could linger for a while longer than expected for most, but freezing rain will undoubtedly be a major problem for many. Hopefully Penn State delays at least if the icing becomes too serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always funny living in Waynesboro, Pa and working in Hagerstown, MD. It's a difference of 10 miles, but are serviced by two different NWS bureaus, and it never fails that they disagree on most storms. Baltimore is bullish on the sleet and icing for the area, while State College appears to be calling for a changeover not only tomorrow night, but also during the day as well. Even so, SC has issued a WSW for Franklin County and Balt only has Hagerstown up for a WWA. Confused? That makes two of us. Perhaps someone can shed some light on the forecast for this area because the NWS has been a joke recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OUCH -- NAM flipped from a snow/sleet event to a devastating ice event. 0.93" ZR. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kavp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. I-80 corridor and possibly even down the Susquehanna could be in for some major icing. Ground temps almost always warm up slower than expected and the cold air puts up a fight particularly in areas with snowcovered ground, so sleet could linger for a while longer than expected for most, but freezing rain will undoubtedly be a major problem for many. Hopefully Penn State delays at least if the icing becomes too serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wonder what happened to the point & click forecasts? I like to check them against the county text forecast, but they don't seem to be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OUCH -- NAM flipped from a snow/sleet event to a devastating ice event. 0.93" ZR. http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kavp Yeah, some of the mean freezing rain values from the 15z run are the worst I have seen in quite some time: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/plumes/PlumeDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if it isnt snow i would rather get NO storm. Eh, I wouldn't mind a few inches of snow and sleet and a light glaze of freezing rain....but the 18z NAM is pretty terrible here. Hardly any snow, some sleet, and over an inch of freezing rain...ugly. We'll see what the 00z models have to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Geez, the breakdown for UNV according to http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kunv shows 0.34" of ice for the first round, and then a staggering 0.89" of ice on top of that for a total of 1.23"! THAT would be a disaster not seen here in a long time. So those were the ZR amounts we were seeing for MDT on the 12z run, lets see where future runs place the incredible ice accretions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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