PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll throw in that towel with you. In my experience, snow always seems to change to sleet more than is anticipated. As you said, all it takes is the smallest sliver of the atmosphere to be above 0 and you get sleet. I think you'll get quite a bit of snow and sleet, but the actually result at the end may not look all that impressive because of the sleet packing down the snow. The warm air aloft is going to reach to the NY/PA border. The freezing line at the surface is another key -- and like I said before, I doubt that makes it much past Route 22 before the heavy precip ends. I completely agree with you, the GFS is wrong with not picking up on the surface temps, thus providing a transition to rain in southern PA and central pa. Like you said its just the warm air aloft, but even the SREFs have mixing up to I-86 in NY at some point during the duration of the storm. Thats the main reason why I hate sleet, It looks like you have had no storm while getting decent snow amounts, just packs everything down and eats up tons of QPF with 2:1 ratios uggh. Well anyways I love this storm meteorological wise, fantastic and a beautiful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I completely agree with you, the GFS is wrong with not picking up on the surface temps, thus providing a transition to rain in southern PA and central pa. Like you said its just the warm air aloft, but even the SREFs have mixing up to I-86 in NY at some point during the duration of the storm. Thats the main reason why I hate sleet, It looks like you have had no storm while getting decent snow amounts, just packs everything down and eats up tons of QPF with 2:1 ratios uggh. Well anyways I love this storm meteorological wise, fantastic and a beautiful storm Sometimes the piles look pretty impressive, though, since sleet doesn't really compact when you throw it around. I agree, it's been a fun storm to watch and forecast. This will probably be the biggest widespread wintry mix since VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I wish we could do a special night time weather ballon launch at the Walker building to help us out on this! haha i know that would be a great idea. Do a couple balloon launches during the storm to monitor the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sometimes the piles looks pretty impressive, though, since sleet doesn't really compact when you throw it around. I agree, it's been a fun storm to watch and forecast. This will probably be the biggest widespread wintry mix since VD 2007. haha maybe the sleet will help insulate my snow pack and keep it around longer. I'm sure we will still be one of the last parts of PA to transfer over to sleet or ZR so I'm sure I will have plenty reports for us. Eventhough this storm isn't even close to the intensity of 93' it sure is close to the overall effect of the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe if we are really lucky we can manage out of this mess some thunder sleet! like parts of OK are seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light precip has arrived.. i'll call it sleet and snow grains currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 haha i know that would be a great idea. Do a couple balloon launches during the storm to monitor the warm layer. if only they had the balloons capable of being launched at several campuses to get a good cross-section... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 its coming down out there but i dont know what "IT" is...i think its sleet. maybe a mix between sleet / snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What initialy looked and sounded like moderate sleet upon closer inspection is actually snow. The heavy burst moving through attm appears to have slightly overwhelmed the thin warm layer and what i'm getting is rimed snowflakes and some still have their dendritic shape. Pretty neat actually. edit: there is still some sleet involved in the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW...if this is sleet already, wouldn't that mean upper levels are already warmer than forecast....looking like we may have more liquid falling tommorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now I got a bit of sleet and big fat fluffy flakes coming out of the sky. It's too bad that theres a hole toward Pittsburgh, cuz i think otherwise the column would've cooled enough to get all snow falling here. edit: now it is literally raining quarter sized snowflakes with little to no sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Column overwhelmed.. it is dumping HUGE snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Column overwhelmed.. it is dumping HUGE snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah its going back and forth with sleet and big heavy snowflakes here in altoona......if we could get more heavier precipation to start forming further west around pittsburgh and move into the area and cool this column down like mags said it would start adding up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like snow falling out there...can't tell for sure. 18.4*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowing pretty hard in State College now, everything is coated. Big flakes like everyone else is reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There are some HUGE snowflakes coming down, some are close to half-dollar size. Visibility less than 1/2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowing pretty hard in State College now, everything is coated. Big flakes like everyone else is reporting. Yea it was downright epic for about 15-20 minutes and dumped a good heavy coating. Now that lighter precips around i'm back to the fine sleet pellets and snow grains. The hole in SW PA's probably going to end State College and Altoona's bid for the front running 2-4". Of course the bigger thing is the fact that it is now clear that the axis of heaviest precip with this first wave is going to sail north of I-80 most likely... which probably implies the further west track and deeper press of mixed precip into the northern zones with the second wave. it's still gonna be interesting to watch what happens with the heavier stuff associated with that second wave gets into our region and how the downtime between the waves affects the temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Swiped this baby from the Upstate NY/North Country thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One inch as of 5:00AM. All snow at the moment, but it must have been a decent mix of sleet and snow overnight as the consistancy of the accumulation is that of granulated sugar. 23.4 is the current temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Besides the fact that it's nowcasting time, at least for part one of the storm today, which model lends more credence, the 6z GFS or NAM? Per the TwisterData soundings, the GFS warms to 33 degrees at the surface sometime tomorrow morning around roughly 7:00AM, while the NAM never gets the surface over freezing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like snow/sleet combo falling looking out at the board, looks like an inch. Getting redy to head out so i can tell for sure. schools here on 2 hour delay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A little ice, up to 29 already. I doubt I see much frozen from second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1.25in of snow here 10mi northeast of Harrisburg this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 All the schools in my area closed except mine got a 2-hour delay! Do you think they will change there mind!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A little ice, up to 29 already. I doubt I see much frozen from second event. why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freezing rain here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nevermind...every school in our area is officially closed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Our school systems make no sense. Why have a 2 hour delay when it's already an ice rink...everything is ice, sidewalks the kids walk on, the roads (have yet to be salted)...it's so slippery out there my dog didn't want to talk a walk... It's drizzling something right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Actually just as I typed that I got the call they are now closed..thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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