EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I know I keep saying it but, even though the nam is cold I think it could be a bit colder. The low is weaker this run and secondary tries to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its not sleet, its snow pellets and graupel. This is a sign of intense UVVs aloft note the cellular nature of the precipitation right now, its almost convective in nature. Ya it's like a hard snow flake not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its not sleet, its snow pellets and graupel. This is a sign of intense UVVs aloft note the cellular nature of the precipitation right now, its almost convective in nature. Yep, it has been graupel and light snow here. I would guess the more stratiform precipitation moving in tonight would favor snow for central Pennsylvania before upper level thermals begin to rise in the morning. H85s are quite cold right now actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My take on the 0z NAM: Everyone in C PA sees a significant amount of ice. Perhaps the top fringes of PA can stay snow, but looks like even north of 80 a bit is a fairly large chunk of ice. Speaking of ice, does anyone know if PA has called in electricity workers from other states? If not, who should we vote out of the state next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In JB's Big Dog video, he mentions that a tough forecast is central PA from like Altoona north, because tomorrow night during heavier rates it could go back to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My take on the 0z NAM: Everyone in C PA sees a significant amount of ice. Perhaps the top fringes of PA can stay snow, but looks like even north of 80 a bit is a fairly large chunk of ice. Speaking of ice, does anyone know if PA has called in electricity workers from other states? If not, who should we vote out of the state next? Someone mentioned they are bringing trucks and manpower up from the Va.-DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My take on the 0z NAM: Everyone in C PA sees a significant amount of ice. Perhaps the top fringes of PA can stay snow, but looks like even north of 80 a bit is a fairly large chunk of ice. Speaking of ice, does anyone know if PA has called in electricity workers from other states? If not, who should we vote out of the state next? Don't know about electric workers but FolsomWx in the PHL thread was talking about how crews in S NJ may be on standby to head to PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My take on the 0z NAM: Everyone in C PA sees a significant amount of ice. Perhaps the top fringes of PA can stay snow, but looks like even north of 80 a bit is a fairly large chunk of ice. Speaking of ice, does anyone know if PA has called in electricity workers from other states? If not, who should we vote out of the state next? 0z NAM looks like nearly .75in or a tad more for the Harrisburg area with freezing rain. This could be a major problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MD/PA line this run 30-31 with 1.1" ZR MDT 28-30 1" ZR If temps are like 1-2 degrees colder then look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW....NAM almost says forget sleet even up to route 6.....going to be an icing disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MD/PA line this run 30-31 with 1.1" ZR MDT 28-30 1" ZR If temps are like 1-2 degrees colder then look out. well with this falling overnight and early morning...you can still get significant icing over night at 30 degrees especially because pretty much all of the ground is frozen. sun will be a limited factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Close up doesn't really match soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Close up doesn't really match soundings. what did the sounding show for LNS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what did the sounding show for LNS? About .7" ZR at 28-30 deg then .33" Rain at 33 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Had nothing but sleet come and go...it came down pretty good earlier around 7:30....almost a pour..covered the roads and all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That close up says it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sorry on the iPhone, what does the close up say compared to the sounding for MDT? Thanks in advance, about to be home so will be able to read more in 30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 About .7" ZR at 28-30 deg then .33" Rain at 33 deg wow...33F is a close call....could maybe see an inch of frz rain...devastating if it came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Soundings at my front door get close to, but never get above 32. It's going to be an interesting 2-3 days coming up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sorry on the iPhone, what does the close up say compared to the sounding for MDT? Thanks in advance, about to be home so will be able to read more in 30 or so. Close up MDT is like at 32 the whole time but soundings show 28-30 degrees with .75" + ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In JB's Big Dog video, he mentions that a tough forecast is central PA from like Altoona north, because tomorrow night during heavier rates it could go back to all snow. Yea it will be interesting. And the 0z NAM did the same thing that the 18z did with collapsing the 850 0 line back into north central PA after the heavier precip settles in. I still think central counties see alot of sleet. the subzero 925s stay anchored pretty much area-wide except for near the mason dixon line and from the laurels west. I need to see some of the levels above 850 level, but true central PA remains in that +2 to +3ºC (35-37ºF) range at 850. With at least 925 on down subzero (and -2 to -4 ish at UNV), it could potentially mean that the heavier precip moving could overwhelm the relatively thin warm layer in the column and actually change back to snow. Or, a raindrop has 2-3k feet to refreeze into sleet. I'd be more confident in a severe freezing rain event across the entire region under I-80 if the 925mb temps were routed out too in a manner like the 850 temps. But with the Nam holding in somewhat deeper cold, I think the worst icing will be in the areas i labeled earlier (Laurel's, higher elevations of the ridge and valley under I-80, Sus valley above the turnpike, etc.) Perhaps I should include under the turnpike east of the Laurel's as well. It's a complicated situation, i'm just ready for this storm to come on through and show its hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREFS are not bad, just the RSM skewing the mean again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea it will be interesting. And the 0z NAM did the same thing that the 18z did with collapsing the 850 0 line back into north central PA after the heavier precip settles in. I still think central counties see alot of sleet. the subzero 925s stay anchored pretty much area-wide except for near the mason dixon line and from the laurels west. I need to see some of the levels above 850 level, but true central PA remains in that +2 to +3ºC (35-37ºF) range at 850. With at least 925 on down subzero (and -2 to -4 ish at UNV), it could potentially mean that the heavier precip moving could overwhelm the relatively thin warm layer in the column and actually change back to snow. Or, a raindrop has 2-3k feet to refreeze into sleet. I'd be more confident in a severe freezing rain event across the entire region under I-80 if the 925mb temps were routed out too in a manner like the 850 temps. But with the Nam holding in somewhat deeper cold, I think the worst icing will be in the areas i labeled earlier (Laurel's, higher elevations of the ridge and valley under I-80, Sus valley above the turnpike, etc.) Perhaps I should include under the turnpike east of the Laurel's as well. It's a complicated situation, i'm just ready for this storm to come on through and show its hand. good post! I agree about the sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 With what could be a long break between precip (Looking at the RUC)...could we some sun tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Booo 110202/0200Z 26 11005KT 31.3F FZRA 0.012|| 0.01 110202/0300Z 27 08006KT 31.6F FZRA 0.020|| 0.03 110202/0400Z 28 11006KT 31.6F FZRA 0.008|| 0.04 110202/0500Z 29 10008KT 32.2F RAIN 0.067|| 0.11 110202/0600Z 30 10006KT 32.4F RAIN 0.138|| 0.24 110202/0700Z 31 11010KT 32.9F RAIN 0.154|| 0.40 110202/0800Z 32 11011KT 33.1F RAIN 0.146|| 0.54 110202/0900Z 33 11012KT 33.3F RAIN 0.213|| 0.76 110202/1000Z 34 12016KT 33.4F RAIN 0.098|| 0.85 110202/1100Z 35 12014KT 33.6F RAIN 0.185|| 1.04 110202/1200Z 36 14009KT 33.4F RAIN 0.134|| 1.17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm guessing this is for your area? Booo 110202/0200Z 26 11005KT 31.3F FZRA 0.012|| 0.01 110202/0300Z 27 08006KT 31.6F FZRA 0.020|| 0.03 110202/0400Z 28 11006KT 31.6F FZRA 0.008|| 0.04 110202/0500Z 29 10008KT 32.2F RAIN 0.067|| 0.11 110202/0600Z 30 10006KT 32.4F RAIN 0.138|| 0.24 110202/0700Z 31 11010KT 32.9F RAIN 0.154|| 0.40 110202/0800Z 32 11011KT 33.1F RAIN 0.146|| 0.54 110202/0900Z 33 11012KT 33.3F RAIN 0.213|| 0.76 110202/1000Z 34 12016KT 33.4F RAIN 0.098|| 0.85 110202/1100Z 35 12014KT 33.6F RAIN 0.185|| 1.04 110202/1200Z 36 14009KT 33.4F RAIN 0.134|| 1.17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm guessing this is for your area? Ya you get like .65" ZR then to about .5" RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where is this table from?? When is your final call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where is this table from?? When is your final call? From bufkit. Final call here very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There really is no way of predicting what will fall. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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