hckyplayer8 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SC PNS Plotted Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 so if state college is calling for 2 inches here do we apply the state college prediction/reality equation? FORECAST*2=REALITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 They typically don't do much east of I-99. Tues-Wed is the next threat for you guys. EXACTLY what I said just a little bit ago. For areas south and east of the ridge and valley, it's on to that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have no clue on what my storm total was, but I have an average snow depth of 14" here in East Prospect York county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 so if state college is calling for 2 inches here do we apply the state college prediction/reality equation? FORECAST*2=REALITY They aren't calling for 2". They say "2 OR LESS", Don't forget the last 2 words there. This isn't directed specifically at you, but one of my biggest winter time pet peeves is for forecasts of say "6 to 12", and people interpret that as "I'm getting a foot." That isn't what that forecast means. Too many people hear only what they want to hear and ignore the rest... Besides, forecasting snow amounts has to be brutal. Certain features in any one storm just cannot be predicted in advance that have huge implications on how much falls in any one municipality. My Father lives less than 6 miles from me, yet he had nearly 12" yesterday while I came in with just over 8". Not to mention, if a typical fall rainstorm is on the way and CTP calls for 1" of rain and we only receive .5", who really pays attention to that and makes an issue of it? (Perhaps if we're in a drought someone might) Sorry, off my soap box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 haha i'm not offended i was just busting on the 3-5 forecast we had in york 2 days ago, and the 12 inch reports (and by "we" i meant the people in the 2 inch strip) York is NOT a place to be for a clipper so i am expecting the "or less" BTW at first glance Euro did pretty well on the last system about 3-4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ...and flooding is by far the most deadly natural disaster, so i would say precip amounts are important in any season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ended with 11.5" in millersville...incredible rates from like 6-10 last night...picked up 6 inches alone in like 2.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ...and flooding is by far the most deadly natural disaster, so i would say precip amounts are important in any season. Correct you are on that one. My point is that if the average Joe is forecasted to get 12" and receives 6", he's pissed. If he's forecasted to get an inch of rain and receives a 1/2", does he even notice it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Nope. Not buying it at all. Burnt WAY too many times waiting for clipper snows to cross the moutains and then watch them die. Could we get a little? Sure, but I'm not holding my breath on this one... They typically don't do much east of I-99. Tues-Wed is the next threat for you guys. There are a few instances like 12/5/08 and 2/20/08 where they can surprise in the Lower Susquehanna but this doesn't look to be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Us people in NEPA area starting to get paranoid. the south gets hit, the coast gets hit, the north gets hit... my prediction is that the west gets it next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS is sick with the cold shot first weekend of Feb..... -15 modeled in the morning of Feb 5 for UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS is sick with the cold shot first weekend of Feb..... -15 modeled in the morning of Feb 5 for UNV. Wow...Thanks just what I wanted to hear!! Been a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro has the PSUHazelton Storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro and GFS now advertise BIG long duration snowstorm next week. Waiting for EURO QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro and GFS now advertise BIG long duration snowstorm next week. Waiting for EURO QPF. i get sucked in to every threat...i cant help myself nice band of snow over me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro has the PSUHazelton Storm lol Every model has a storm in the 2/1-2 timeframe now. EURO shafts us again though with another low towards the BM :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 i like the looks of that precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 O" of snow here lol not even a flake, congrats guys on the much deserved snowfall! Hopefully this clipper can over produce for the area, a nice 3" is welcomed. I see there is a decent chance at a big storm later next week, with finally a bowling ball type storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 O" of snow here lol not even a flake, congrats guys on the much deserved snowfall! Hopefully this clipper can over produce for the area, a nice 3" is welcomed. I see there is a decent chance at a big storm later next week, with finally a bowling ball type storm track for now but dont get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 for now but dont get your hopes up. yeah its tough not to, just like you said, I always get suckered into these storm threats. Well what kinda of weather enthusiast doesn't? Its just crazy to think how these storms have tracked these past few years. I think its phenomenal that the east has seen at least 4 storms of 15"+ in the last 2 years!! While we haven't even seen one, well someday I suppose. Weather is so amazing sometimes, its purely an untamed beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 So, meteorology question: This pattern we've been in for two or three years - where storms ride the coast and push east past the benchmark pretty much every time, what has to happen to break that? I know it'll happen eventually (even though that might not be good for my backyard). Does a massive winter warmup or major low pressure bomb have to occur to completely reset the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 yeah its tough not to, just like you said, I always get suckered into these storm threats. Well what kinda of weather enthusiast doesn't? Its just crazy to think how these storms have tracked these past few years. I think its phenomenal that the east has seen at least 4 storms of 15"+ in the last 2 years!! While we haven't even seen one, well someday I suppose. Weather is so amazing sometimes, its purely an untamed beast Just out of curiosity, how much snow did you get last winter? I agree completely, and I posted this a page or two back, Philly has had 4 different foot plus snows in 13 months. Are you kidding me? They average less than one per decade, and now this. Anyway, I had just under 70" last winter, and to think, about 40 miles to my SOUTH they had nearly 100". (If PSUHoffman sees this he can confirm, I recall him saying last year that he was near that mark) I keep thinking it's your turn...and I keep thinking..and waiting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have a feeling it's going to snow FEB 2nd cause I had to cancel my doctors appointment for this storm and move it to the 2nd. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOL...I think the south will live if they don't get the clippers. I'm thinking .5 to an inch between the two here. We have to get a biggie at some point up here(I mean more than 5-6" lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Eh, I liked his own name "The Interior Strikes Back" better. I finished with just over 8". Had just over 5" last night and got to watch 2 young kids of mine come running in the house in a state of panic when a huge flash of lightening and a big rumble of thunder occurred. Pretty cool stuff. For my area at least, not excited at all about snow prospects the next couple of days. I will not trust clippers to save my life. Anything we might get down here would be a real bonus out of those. I'm looking forward to next week now. And Jon, sounds like you won your bet.... I missed that lightling but I cant see to my north with the hill behind me. We got that 5" fast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NWS CTP hired a new met, apparently. Based on the credits at the end of the AFD, she's already busy: .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.&&$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NWS CTP hired a new met, apparently. Based on the credits at the end of the AFD, she's already busy: .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.&&$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 419 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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