PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When you reply to a comment or click on "Use Full Editor" it gives you an option to attach a file Thanks I appreciate it for the advice, I'm think I maybe over done in Maine if it decides to slide of the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think it all depends on the timing of the low pressure cutting into southern PA and the transfer over to the coast, to see if areas below I-80 to see 6"+ . I think this will be a tough call for the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well unfortunately with this storm I think its going to give areas of southern PA a messy storm, while areas that normally do good in these situations north of I-80 might be ok. Its tough because I can see this map having to shift more to the NW if this storm does decide to cut in the Lakes, but as I see it now this is my first call. I don't make maps very often, but feel free to give me some feedback, negative or good not to be critical but the way you have the low going i dont see it as either apps or cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 not to be critical but the way you have the low going i dont see it as either apps or cutter. yeah its poorly drawn, I'm thinkin it tries to cut just up the western side, then transfer to the coast, but I really don't know at this point just an educated guess, but whats your opinion on the storm? I thnk this storm might be an inbetweener for apps and cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I guess I should have said overruning event, poor choice of words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I guess I should have said overruning event, poor choice of words regardless i would take your scenario if it played out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 regardless i would take your scenario if it played out that way. Do you remember how alot of the storms progressed the last two years with most areas above I-80 saw good snow while others suffered, this storm may do that based on the teleconnections and lack of blocking. The one thing I think that saves the area is the -EPO, I'm afraid though with the lack of HP in the Great lakes this sucker tries to over phase and cut way to the west through the Ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whats nice is the GFS leaves behind a piece of energy for a possible storm later next week? I'm glad it did this because if the system took all the energy and phased this would def be a chicago storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs numbers are 1.07 = 13 " snow but for some reason i have a bad feeling about this storm...i felt better about the last storm this far out but we know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Do you remember how alot of the storms progressed the last two years with most areas above I-80 saw good snow while others suffered, this storm may do that based on the teleconnections and lack of blocking. The one thing I think that saves the area is the -EPO, I'm afraid though with the lack of HP in the Great lakes this sucker tries to over phase and cut way to the west through the Ohio valley i can only remember 1 good storm last year 11 inches(the feb storm). the rest were minor. but i dont have the memory of some on here...everything seems to blur together when i think back. but i do know we have not had a storm of 12+ in a looooong time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON FINALS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. RAUSCH / ROSENSTEIN http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON FINALS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. RAUSCH / ROSENSTEIN http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html that looks / sounds too good for this far out. to be in the sweet spot4/5 days out is never good the way the models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I have a gut feeling this will be a non-event for mby, but man I hope this clobbers you guys in IPT and north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i can only remember 1 good storm last year 11 inches(the feb storm). the rest were minor. but i dont have the memory of some on here...everything seems to blur together when i think back. but i do know we have not had a storm of 12+ in a looooong time here. well maybe not last year because it was a mid atlantic winter, but the last few before that where we were wooried about that dreded SE ridge where it forced the darn storms north, and alot of the times we had no HP to the north, but yeah its def been a longggg time since this area in pa has seen a 12"+ storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 what ever happened to the weekend rule? looks like that is a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 here's a snippet of Eric Host's discussion this afternoon... I'll let ya'll stew on it. "Canadian high pressure will then take control Sunday into Monday with unseasonably cool conditions. That will set the stage for a complex southern storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. While it will be a few days before we can dial in details, the pattern should dictate an initial track to our west (up the Ohio Valley), but then a jump to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. With lots of cold air and snow cover over the Northeast, this may pan out as a significant snow-to-ice storm across our area. Check back for more details over the weekend. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 here's a snippet of Eric Host's discussion this afternoon... I'll let ya'll stew on it. "Canadian high pressure will then take control Sunday into Monday with unseasonably cool conditions. That will set the stage for a complex southern storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. While it will be a few days before we can dial in details, the pattern should dictate an initial track to our west (up the Ohio Valley), but then a jump to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. With lots of cold air and snow cover over the Northeast, this may pan out as a significant snow-to-ice storm across our area. Check back for more details over the weekend. " This has the potential to be a big snow-to-ice event. There's plenty of cold and snow to our north and this system will have some juice. If we can keep the phasing to a minimum before it reaches the apps, this could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gadomski tonight on Weather World for Wednesday - Heavy snow north Mixing south T minus 4.5 days and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gadomski tonight on Weather World for Wednesday - Heavy snow north Mixing south T minus 4.5 days and counting... What does he consider north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well maybe not last year because it was a mid atlantic winter, but the last few before that where we were wooried about that dreded SE ridge where it forced the darn storms north, and alot of the times we had no HP to the north, but yeah its def been a longggg time since this area in pa has seen a 12"+ storm Feb 2007 - let's get you another. Edit: actually, the "forgotten snowstorm" could also be considered close - March 16, 2007. According to this: http://d07.knitmeter.com/display/id/7201/period/thisyear/bgcolor/ffffff/textcolor/0000CC/bordercolor/990099.png Snowfalls of 9.5, 11, and 15 were recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What does he consider north? This is for PA only. Obviously impossible to define this far out but I'd like my chances north of 80. And it's not like south doesn't have a lot of potential either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Feb 2007 - let's get you another. Edit: actually, the "forgotten snowstorm" could also be considered close - March 16, 2007. According to this: http://d07.knitmeter...olor/990099.png Snowfalls of 9.5, 11, and 15 were recorded. Thanks Jamie, hopefully we can get it, if not well i guess i can wait longer ...but I would be more than willing to share will the rest of my Pa friends lets just hope you guys stay out of the dreded ice threat, nobody likes dealing with that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thanks Jamie, hopefully we can get it, if not well i guess i can wait longer ...but I would be more than willing to share will the rest of my Pa friends lets just hope you guys stay out of the dreded ice threat, nobody likes dealing with that mess. Yeah, man, two winters ago was enough ice for me. That's a cool site to browse, btw. All the past storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Feb 2007 - let's get you another. Edit: actually, the "forgotten snowstorm" could also be considered close - March 16, 2007. According to this: http://d07.knitmeter...olor/990099.png Snowfalls of 9.5, 11, and 15 were recorded. 10 inches here from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It basically snowed in Harrisburg all day sonce 11 or so and you can't tell. It didn't stick to many surfaces at all, except cars and on to if snow piles. It was pretty though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For once this winter, I'm more concerned about this storm being too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL...It'll either be over 40/70 or Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Friday night trivia.... somewhat weather related............... no cheating! When typing temperatures on this forum.... how do you make a ° symbol? You have 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The makings of a nice overrunning event: The confluence coming into New England should keep this from cutting too far west, likely playing out similarly to the Euro and GFS solutions. Get the WSW's ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Friday night trivia.... somewhat weather related............... no cheating! When typing temperatures on this forum.... how do you make a ° symbol? You have 30 minutes ° I do Alt 0176 but it's a big of a pain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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