Jmister Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Read in the PHL/NYC thread that the higher your elevation in this setup, the more likely it will be rain because it's LL cold. Yes that's true. In this setup, the valleys will definitely hold onto the cold air longer and will have more significant icing. Also for those along the N. PA border, the 850 freezing line holds for quite some time on the 15z SREFs, so overrunning snow could really pile up before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREFs show a devastating ice storm in the making for the central 2/3rds of PA (going north/south). Over 1" of precip in some areas in 24hrs, and the surface below freezing.... The mean freezing line gets to the Turnpike and just stops - even looks like it moves back south later Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The mean freezing line gets to the Turnpike and just stops - even looks like it moves back south later Tuesday night. If we stay all snow I will be completely happy, usually in these situations, north of cameron county stays all snow and a brief change over at the very end. You really think some areas will recieve 1" of ZR? yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow we may just get to the WWA criteria, we are sitting at 2.2" of snow and still coming down moderately with big flakes, temp at 28.1°F Same here man, this has been an extremely impressive snowfall, big flakes coming down good for a few hrs at various intensities. We are at 2 inches for the day and the total snow on the ground right now that I just measured is 7.5 inches in my yard. Im happy, maybe we can get some more before the ice moves in Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Same here man, this has been an extremely impressive snowfall, big flakes coming down good for a few hrs at various intensities. We are at 2 inches for the day and the total snow on the ground right now that I just measured is 7.5 inches in my yard. Im happy, maybe we can get some more before the ice moves in Wed. Yeah I know what you mean, this storm has been impressive, I'm hoping I can finish with 3-4" like NWS issued. The back edge of the precip field is fastly approaching, maybe another hours worth. Our snow depth is 10-11" . I'm really hoping we can excape the ice threat but its looking dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The EURO, GGEM GFS has the over running over most of PA while the nam is mainly northern. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.5" here so far, but with the western edge approaching and the eastward movement of the shield, I think it's soon over for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is crazy looking. Severe weather? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jeez even with the low on steroids temps staying near 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jeez even with the low on steroids temps staying near 32. Yuck this is turing to be an awful outcome, even this shows all snow for me at this time frame, but barely. The nam is depicting everyone practically turns over to sleet and ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The EURO, GGEM GFS has the over running over most of PA while the nam is mainly northern. Strange. The 15z SREF's also have the highest snowfall probs focused along and north of the I-80 corridor, with northern PA maxed out with 90-100% probs of an inch plus and high probs of 4+. There's the usual dip in central PA where theres some decent probs of an inch plus and low probs of 4+. I mentioned this really early this morning over in the Philly thread after the 6z nam had featured a very robust overrunning from the steep temp gradient. What I said was that the positioning of the primary axis of this initial overrunning snow potential is likely going to tip off where the most snow/ice occurs with the storm system itself. Given the current forecast track by most models, the SREF placement of snow probs is probably the more correct.. which to me would suggest a longer term significant snowfall for northern PA while central PA sees moderate snowfall yield to some kind of wintry mix. I think most of true central PA north of the turnpike probably never sees the temps above freezing until most of the event is over considering the high and snowpack (and probably new snowfall prior to the low approach), so am concerned about ice. If the cold air supplied by the high pressure makes a better press into PA then we will see this axis include most of PA, and that could also implicate a low track a hair further southeast and more snow for the mixing zones. Lots of uncertainty with the precip scenarios for sure, but this is looking like a really messy and disruptive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS still says southern pa gets good over running snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is a blow torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is a blow torch. Philly thread says it is colder? And it appears to want to move to a lakes cutter a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 C PA escapes the heavy rain on this run as things dry out before the surface torches. NEPA though, uggh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Philly thread says it is colder? And it appears to want to move to a lakes cutter a bit. Def not colder. And yes lakes cutter which means warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No rain no rain! I want my snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2.75 here today 11-12 inches total on ground. i dont want to lose it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think this is my best video yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Guys I'm getting a little scared on our threat of prolonged snow for the area i wish there wasnt so much waa associated with this LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just dont get how this storm just charges straight at the HP and moves it out of the way like a toy car, you think it would force it to stay to the south at 1032MB but oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just dont get how this storm just charges straight at the HP and moves it out of the way like a toy car, you think it would force it to stay to the south at 1032MB but oh well We always think that but, it just plows right on through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 2.5 " of snow today from this clipper. Which I really wasn't expecting. Got about 9" of snow pack. We get much more snow. I'm gonna start making a pile with my loader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just dont get how this storm just charges straight at the HP and moves it out of the way like a toy car, you think it would force it to stay to the south at 1032MB but oh well I think this storm will definitely be warmer than the most recent event but I doubt it will be the ice to rain storm shown on the 18z GFS and Euro. Even for down my way. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well guys this is my second call for the storm. Seeming I guess this storm wants to cut further into the lakes than I previously thought. ALL areas in PA eventually change over to sleet or ZR cutting down snow totals even for my area . Hopefully I'm wrong and the models come in further to the SE and colder or root for a quicker transfer to the coast. Regardless CAD will be in full effect since we do have a 1032MB HP to the north or Michigan modeled, which means its going to be hard to change the areas that recieve icy weather completely over to plain rain north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still can't believe the HPC is showing 1.8" of QPF for northern PA, even if we recieve half that in snow thats easily 12" of snow, i will take it. assuming 14:1 ratios which is the climatological average for storms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not real interested in this storm anymore...should be a quick 1-2 inches of snow, then a little sleet, the to rain and 37-40 degrees...no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not real interested in this storm anymore...should be a quick 1-2 inches of snow, then a little sleet, the to rain and 37-40 degrees...no biggie. Either they're too far south and east, or a tight gradient sets up, or it's a cutter. No matter what, it just isn't our winter to see a blockbuster snowstorm. At least not up to this point. We may make it to average before all is said and done, but it seems like were going to have to nickel and dime our way to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 break out the generators, the NAM says major ice storm for northern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WOW...did anyone take a peak at the SREFs?? Scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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