NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM has a major ice storm....abandoning the super warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If this get any colder it's going to be really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, what is this storm looking like for south central PA? Mainly plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, what is this storm looking like for south central PA? Mainly plain rain? No, it's trending colder. Note: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kmdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does anyone know if BFD has soundings I can look at, I really hope this area stays out of the ice and stays all snow, hopefully it trends colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No, it's trending colder. Note: http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=kmdt With so much ice on the water ways. Below is what I worry about. There was severe flooding on Lycoming Creek on January 19 and 20, 1996, when a combination of heavy snow on the ground, heavy rains and subsequent melting, and ice dams led to flooding two feet higher than that seen in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes. Six people died as a result of flooding on Lycoming Creek in the greater Williamsport area, and there was millions of dollars of damage to property. .[2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does anyone know if BFD has soundings I can look at, I really hope this area stays out of the ice and stays all snow, hopefully it trends colder http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kbfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow 12Z GFS is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's like 36 degrees already today. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With so much ice on the water ways. Below is what I worry about. There was severe flooding on Lycoming Creek on January 19 and 20, 1996, when a combination of heavy snow on the ground, heavy rains and subsequent melting, and ice dams led to flooding two feet higher than that seen in 1972 with Hurricane Agnes. Six people died as a result of flooding on Lycoming Creek in the greater Williamsport area, and there was millions of dollars of damage to property. .[2] This set up is not at all like that one. That one had all rain and much warmer temps. An ice storm is Williamsport's primary concern based on all the modeling, none of them are showing 1.5 inches of rain. Also, Williamsport doesn't have near the snowpack as that one had. Not even close. So, I wouldn't be worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This set up is not at all like that one. That one had all rain and much warmer temps. An ice storm is Williamsport's primary concern based on all the modeling, none of them are showing 1.5 inches of rain. Also, Williamsport doesn't have near the snowpack as that one had. Not even close. So, I wouldn't be worried about that. Agreed....we got into the 60s with that event with over a foot of snowpack. We'll be lucky to get to maybe 35 at the warmest this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed....we got into the 60s with that event with over a foot of snowpack. We'll be lucky to get to maybe 35 at the warmest this week. That was an insane event. Jan 96 was a crazy month, like the weather roller coaster to end all weather roller coasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was an insane event. Jan 96 was a crazy month, like the weather roller coaster to end all weather roller coasters. Yeah, I wish I remembered more....I do kind of remember having to evacuate to my Aunt's house early in the morning because of the flood threat. Including that, only twice have we had to evac because of flooding (The other being June 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, I wish I remembered more....I do kind of remember having to evacuate to my Aunt's house early in the morning because of the flood threat. Including that, only twice have we had to evac because of flooding (The other being June 2006). Two things I remember clearly from that storm: - Greatest positive bust of a storm I have ever seen. Only AccuWx had Pittsburgh getting a storm, and the NWS has zero snow, not even flurries. I woke up to heavy snow and an inch on the ground. I turned on the Weather Channel for the NWS forecast and it was 1-2 inches. Then about an hour later, heavy snow and close to three on the ground, snow advisory, 2-4. It kept going up, then we got a winter storm warning. Officially I think Pittsburgh got like a foot officially but I measured 15 inches on Mt. Washington. It was awesome. - Then, the flood coverage on Pittsburgh TV and how high the water got. The Point was totally under. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Two things I remember clearly from that storm: - Greatest positive bust of a storm I have ever seen. Only AccuWx had Pittsburgh getting a storm, and the NWS has zero snow, not even flurries. I woke up to heavy snow and an inch on the ground. I turned on the Weather Channel for the NWS forecast and it was 1-2 inches. Then about an hour later, heavy snow and close to three on the ground, snow advisory, 2-4. It kept going up, then we got a winter storm warning. Officially I think Pittsburgh got like a foot officially but I measured 15 inches on Mt. Washington. It was awesome. - Then, the flood coverage on Pittsburgh TV and how high the water got. The Point was totally under. Crazy. We were snowed in. We were talking about it within my family in light of all the snow events (And how this valley seems to freak out about 3-5" of snow...God help us all if we get another 1/96 ). Haven't been snowed in since. Then apparently the Susquehanna got within 18" of topping the old levee height in the flooding afterwards. It was so high you could reach over the levee and touch the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So,, CTP has MDT with zr from Tuesday-Friday. Temps need to crash for the lower Susq valley not to see serious trouble, methonks. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ugh it's always so marginal down here. NAM has me at 32.5 and GFS 33 during the heaviest precip. Need about 1-2 degrees colder please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM drives the low really far west...everyone in PA except extreme north is rain by hr72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL the cold air just vanished on the 12z GFS. We went from -15*F to 3*F for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL the cold air just vanished on the 12z GFS. We went from -15*F to 3*F for Friday. The GGEM sucks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GGEM sucks. lol I'm not buying it. It goes from the southern outlier to the northern outlier in one run. Not to mention the fact that it had an Apps runner with the last event 3 days out. LOLtastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not buying it. It goes from the southern outlier to the northern outlier in one run. Not to mention the fact that it had an Apps runner with the last event 3 days out. LOLtastic. Only thing that bothers me is i'm already 4 degrees about the predicted high and it's only 1230. Might hit 40 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12Z GFS has the most storms on it I have seen this winter. Fun to look at, in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Only thing that bothers me is i'm already 4 degrees about the predicted high and it's only 1230. Might hit 40 today. That won't really be an issue. The reason it's warmer today is because the temps stayed so high last night. With the high nosing down tonight, we should get into the single digits (north) with teens elsewhere. Then, as long as the clouds come in early enough tomorrow, it will be harder to get the temperature to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That won't really be an issue. The reason it's warmer today is because the temps stayed so high last night. With the high nosing down tonight, we should get into the single digits (north) with teens elsewhere. Then, as long as the clouds come in early enough tomorrow, it will be harder to get the temperature to rise. Either way it doesn't matter because the stupid WAA is going to change it all over anyways, which means central and norther pa will be lucky to see even 6" from this dumb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The thing that makes me more upset is I have to sit at a high of 23 degrees wednesday while I watch sleet ping off my window pane ....If there was any term I hated more in meterology it would be warm air aloft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My aunt lives in Ottawa Illinois (south of Chicago) and she is under a blizzard watch!!! I am so jealous! Her storm of the year is coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The thing that makes me more upset is I have to sit at a high of 23 degrees wednesday while I watch sleet ping off my window pane ....If there was any term I hated more in meterology it would be warm air aloft! yeah man, it really is amazing how we miss storm after storm just to our south and east.Now this one misses to our north bringin us alot of ice.What does it take anymore to get central Pa in the bullseye for a nice snowstorm, is it even possible?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 whats frustrating to me is i have been working on getting my snowmobiles ready and they will be ready to ride tuesday . just in time for the slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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