2001kx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS is showing very little rain for you, mainly snow and ice. i know but the question where does it trend from here on out. im just skeptical at this point... mod snow here...will measure when i go out to plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Snowing decent, 1 mile vis, 1.7" down, 27.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not going to start freaking the hubby out until Monday..lol. That's when it will be more known what MIGHT happen.. Man I so don't want the ice or rain....The snow we have now is still nice and white and I like looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well this clipper is a dud here, but places just south of route 6 is getting snow pretty good, we are just seeing flurries, and man I'm really starting to get scared on next weeks event, I hope I can stay out of mixing issues and you guys stay out of ice CTP has you in an advisory and not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i know but the question where does it trend from here on out. im just skeptical at this point... mod snow here...will measure when i go out to plow. Who knows. I am assuring myself that only the GGEM really truly understands the PSUHazletonWx Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 a few pics from today nothing too crazy but still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Who knows. I am assuring myself that only the GGEM really truly understands the PSUHazletonWx Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Snowing decent, 1 mile vis, 1.7" down, 27.3 Nam was showing 2.8 for us with this clipper. BTW nice site..Thanks http://wxweb.meteostar.com/search/getweather.php?locid=12624 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CTP has you in an advisory and not me lmao yeah ik, well they are definetly going to be wrong I just measured we have about an 1" but there is no way we are going to reach the 3-4" criteria for the WWA. You guys picking up good snowfall off this down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well I know you said you had 1.7" jamie but what are some of the bigger reports that you've heard come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well I see a LEK siting! whats your thoughts on this storm, would be nice to see some other opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z ensemble mean looks slightly south of the operational and has a lot of precipitation for the storm. A lot of this would be frozen or freezing throughout central PA (especially the northern half): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 As I look at the storm for wednesday, I am, wondering if there will be a change over to sleet and IP. In my area, the schools hear Ice storm, they go into a panic. I don't blame them because the wyoming valley area has a lot of hills. Right now light to moderate squall. Visiblitiy is down to under 3 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That map looks absolutely beautiful, the problem is how much sleet cuts into the totals? If we could stay snow that equates to about 13-17" of snow!! Just depends on how much the HP to the north influences the area and how much WAA we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORSOVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THEDEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TOGROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESSAGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTIONWHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVEPOSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THENAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT ASMUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUSINCLUDING ENSEMBLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That map looks absolutely beautiful, the problem is how much sleet cuts into the totals? If we could stay snow that equates to about 13-17" of snow!! Just depends on how much the HP to the north influences the area and how much WAA we get Yes, since this is a mean it can be deceiving. Looking at the individual members, lots of them show warming at 850mb through much of PA. A lot of sleet and freezing rain would occur after a decent thump of snow. A handful of members pass the Low right through CPA, so a change to rain cannot be ruled out either. Individual 12z ensemble members: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well I know you said you had 1.7" jamie but what are some of the bigger reports that you've heard come in? Here's where they come in: http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=PA&prodtype=public Seems to be similar to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In terms of the upcoming week in the Harrisburg area, it looks to me as if a bout of moderate overrunning snows, then ice, will lay the groundwork for a rather wintry week of weather. I believe, having observed this type of event over my years, the warmer and more humid air will override the arctic air that is in place from these clippers that have brought it south to us by Sunday evening. Keep an eye on the strength of the High based on the obs over the next 2 days. If that (southern Ontario/northern NY) High is greater than 1030 mb on Monday, I would expect a large amount of wintry precip falling as snow, then sleet, then freezing rain, then ending as some backlash snows as the true arctic high spills east. The origin of that high is cP and cA...that is important. Regardless what the modeling suggests, it is very difficult to erode the low level dense cold that gets dammed east of the mountains. Over the years, I have seen models send surface temps to very "warm" levels only to see the surface remain at/below freezing. The modeling simply struggles with the density of the cold air dammed east of the mountains. Thus, I look for a glacier being formed by Thursday here in the lower Susq. Valley as the true cA air advects east later in the week. I did see that the synoptic set-up is analogous to the Valentine's Day 2007 storm as determined by CIPS analog packages ( Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) which synoptically and climatologically makes perfect sense. Just my 2 cents...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So are we looking at mainly rain at IPT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes, since this is a mean it can be deceiving. Looking at the individual members, lots of them show warming at 850mb through much of PA. A lot of sleet and freezing rain would occur after a decent thump of snow. A handful of members pass the Low right through CPA, so a change to rain cannot be ruled out either. Individual 12z ensemble members: http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html yeah it sure looks like the majority of pa will change over at some point, well for me there was only 1 member showing a change over to sleet and the rest says I stay all snow well that can change mighty fast! I live practically right on the PA/NY border, we normally do very well with these types of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So are we looking at mainly rain at IPT? no you look to get a good front end dump of snow, probably like5-7" then a change over to sleet and freezing rain, may change over to rain at the very end of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORSOVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THEDEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TOGROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESSAGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTIONWHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVEPOSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THENAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT ASMUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUSINCLUDING ENSEMBLES. Where's this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In terms of the upcoming week in the Harrisburg area, it looks to me as if a bout of moderate overrunning snows, then ice, will lay the groundwork for a rather wintry week of weather. I believe, having observed this type of event over my years, the warmer and more humid air will override the arctic air that is in place from these clippers that have brought it south to us by Sunday evening. Keep an eye on the strength of the High based on the obs over the next 2 days. If that (southern Ontario/northern NY) High is greater than 1030 mb on Monday, I would expect a large amount of wintry precip falling as snow, then sleet, then freezing rain, then ending as some backlash snows as the true arctic high spills east. The origin of that high is cP and cA...that is important. Regardless what the modeling suggests, it is very difficult to erode the low level dense cold that gets dammed east of the mountains. Over the years, I have seen models send surface temps to very "warm" levels only to see the surface remain at/below freezing. The modeling simply struggles with the density of the cold air dammed east of the mountains. Thus, I look for a glacier being formed by Thursday here in the lower Susq. Valley as the true cA air advects east later in the week. I did see that the synoptic set-up is analogous to the Valentine's Day 2007 storm as determined by CIPS analog packages ( Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) which synoptically and climatologically makes perfect sense. Just my 2 cents...... yeah I can't imagine with a powerful HP to the north this changes many areas over to plain rain, definetly looks like a slop storm with WAA over spreading the area. The faster we get the development of the secondary the better some areas can see quite a bit of snow. Your right models typically don't handle CAD very well and thus don't always sense the potentially for very bad icing sometimes. All of places should still manage to get a very good front end thump of snow before the change over to sleet and ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CMC run at least gives us an idea what the precipitation is gonna be. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So are we looking at mainly rain at IPT? lol, no, see my previous post. Based on the GFS you are mainly snow then ice. see this: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kipt In other words, that tells us we build a freaking glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has more front-end precip. Trying to extract more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CMC run at least gives us an idea what the precipitation is gonna be. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html That run is an example of the worst case scenario for the I-80 corridor. That would be a long duration of snow and ice with a 1036mb high sitting over Eastern Canada. With the high and the snowcover, it will be very difficult to warm up north and east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Where's this from? HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like the EURO got a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr102 everyone is raining but a dryslot has taken over. So it sounds like SN-IP/ZR-DZ/-RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.