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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Plenty that can go wrong here still. The confluence/high could be weaker meaning less cold air, there could be less of a PNA ridge, the S/W forming this system hasn't been fully sampled yet. To me it's nice to look at and there's real potential for a MECS IMO but hard to really jump in until late Sun or Mon when all ingredients are fully sampled. But we've also had real potential fall apart at the end (2/5/10 for example).
  2. jm1220
    Still have to give it to the end of the weekend before the Mother of God gifs lol
  3. jm1220
    Fine by me. Contrary to popular belief NYC's best storms often head just inside the BM.
  4. jm1220
    With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air.
  5. jm1220
    With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air.
  6. jm1220
    And this is where amped wave 1 can help us out. It reinforces the 50-50 low, which helps form the confluence and drives the cold air in better. And it can be a nice 3-6" gloppy snow appetizer (I don't buy 6"+ the NAM shows) before this main show. I'm definitely interested in this setup-best we've seen in a few winters at least. At least it's not model nonsense-totally feasible how this can work out.
  7. jm1220
    Yowsers, blizzard verbatim on this run. A little fast moving for truly huge amounts but the only people who maybe worry would be SE NJ as the low tries to hug the coast before confluence pushes it east. Classic setup ahead of time makes it a big one here.
  8. jm1220
    Looks like a pretty classic setup to me, wish the PNA could be a little better but nothing's perfect? Huge arctic high dumping cold air in and confluence to the north. That should put a hard stop on any crazy northward push. If anything to me that setup says knife-edge cutoff to heavy snow somewhere vs. flurries and dry air.
  9. jm1220
    Looks to still be playing catchup here.
  10. jm1220
    And hopefully it's real-the relevant system is mostly onshore now out west. Looks like whatever this is will be a quick hitter focused on Mon morning and afternoon. Verbatim a close shave mostly for LI and central NJ for wet snow but definitely a 50-75 mile bump north.
  11. jm1220
    Hopefully here the transfer and nudge east from the confluence can save us. Does seem like at some point that takes over and forces the storm east. Still way far out though. We also need a good PNA ridge.
  12. jm1220
    Temps are marginal though, maybe around freezing or just over. I’d think in the best zone it would be 3-5” rather than 6-8” the NAM shows. Definitely a nice event though given the last 2 winters and hopefully it can just be an appetizer. I’m hoping this wave is a little more amped and stronger. To me that means it can suppress the flow behind it somewhat and prevent wave 2 from becoming too amped.
  13. jm1220
    Nice-looks like even the coast has a little wiggle room for it becoming a little more amped and it still be mainly snow. I could finally be in a decent spot for this.
  14. jm1220
    Jan 2016 was a Miller A El Niño fueled southern stream system. This (Weds) is a system redeveloping due to (hopefully) blocking and confluence north of us, so Miller B. Also should be moving quicker.
  15. jm1220
    Uhh no, not even close to the same setup as that was.
  16. jm1220
    Yes it nudges the trough east. Without it, strong chance it tries to cut.
  17. jm1220
    Also, wonder if a stronger wave 1 can suppress wave 2 somewhat.
  18. jm1220
    Too early to focus on a specific track now but if confluence is getting better that’s good. We need resistance to the north to force this SE of us.
  19. jm1220
    I think we need better PNA cooperation than models have now. There’s too much risk of storms trending too far north without it.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, with the PNA not cooperating so well this could end up trying to run inland. Time for that to improve still though
  21. jm1220
    Also possible that a stronger Wave 1 could help suppress Wave 2 behind it?
  22. jm1220
    Haven’t been following this very closely yet but it wouldn’t surprise me if the second wave for Weds trended more amped due to the not great PNA. Gives the trough more room to amplify in the East and force a NW track. The blocking up north does force it to redevelop somewhere but hopefully it’s not when we’re already flooded in warm air. A primary that hangs on too long (never a problem here ) also sends warm air aloft in which means a lot of sleet. Still long ways to go though.
  23. jm1220
    Up this way including NE Nassau it’s in the upper 20s. Slight SW wind keeping it much warmer right on the S Shore.
  24. jm1220
    I’m no fan of the ridge east of Hawaii-it would cause lower heights out West than we want. It could lead to a situation where the low tries to cut and we have to hope the blocking can force a transfer to an offshore system in time which usually isn’t the case here. That could mean snow to rain near the coast and more snow further north like the I-90 corridor.
  25. jm1220
    It’s definitely better than last winter. One thing I’m not thrilled about is the ridge east of Hawaii in the means. Normally you want a trough there. Storms that try to amplify may try to cut first and bring warm air in. Maybe the blocking could result in them being snow to rain here or force a redevelopment in time for New England to remain snow.
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