Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,719

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Can this guy be banned? Im still scarred from that one living in Long Beach at the time.
  2. jm1220
    About 20” where I am from that (Juno). I was living in TX at the time and missed it.
  3. jm1220
    To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher.
  4. jm1220
    Yes, keep those right there please. Like I said, I see this trying to hug up to near Cape May and then confluence shunts it out. It's quite a vigorous S/W spawning this beast.
  5. jm1220
    This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked.
  6. jm1220
    15-20" of snow in 12 hours pretty much? Uh, yes.
  7. jm1220
    Oh absolutely. That’s a monster on the GFS. So pumped for something like that.
  8. jm1220
    Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though
  9. jm1220
    If we’re talking Monday that confluence isn’t in place yet and I don’t see much to stop it from being more of an inland event. Temps are also marginal so this would be a quick few inch or so hit of snow where it’s cold enough. But yes hopefully it can help suppress the flow enough for Wednesday.
  10. jm1220
    Yeah... this is going to try to hug the coast and tuck as much as it can. We need that confluence to be in place to force it east.
  11. jm1220
    Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess.
  12. jm1220
    Again confluence is key. Wave 1-have no idea how that turns out this run but it would help suppressing wave 2 a little more. Yup, that's a little further north than ideal.
  13. jm1220
    The blocking will be key, the low will try to tuck as far north as it can.
  14. jm1220
    Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland.
  15. jm1220
    Yeah, can't argue there aren't plenty of roller coasters with this upcoming storm(s). Hopefully the evolution can make for a good outcome for as many of us as possible. Plenty of room for a crash/burn as well. Never easy with these. I'd for sure say with any Miller B type outcome typically a further NE redevelopment is favored.
  16. jm1220
    Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm.
  17. jm1220
    Too bad no Kuchera snow map here. Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow.
  18. jm1220
    Yup but only tucked in to a point. Beyond Cape May and NYC south/east gets nervous. But as of now we have the huge high and confluent upper air pattern to help keep that from happening-forces the low east.
  19. jm1220
    I'd normally if a low was headed into Cape May but this airmass we can probably afford it. The confluence would likely send it east from there. Disregard snow maps, from this range we're looking at the overall evolution. This isn't a fantasy model porn setup I'd typically piss on, for sure. I don't see a Jan 1996 out of this but still something impressive.
  20. jm1220
    The Mon system isn't nothing either especially in SE CT/RI/Cape Cod. Could be a quick few inches or so if it comes in heavy (my backyard's first chance to get on the board-so far T here this winter). Temps are marginal though so it's another one where the weenie maps will be overdone.
  21. jm1220
    Yep. It's not a Jan 1996 or Feb 1983 verbatim by any means but a strong trough/Shortwave coming in against a reinforced 50-50, blocking setup screams potential. Maybe one concern to me is the PNA ridge not being ideal. You look at those storms, they had a sharp PNA ridge over ID to AZ. Also the blocking doesn't seem too stout and the flow is progressive so not as long lasting a system. But it could be a really nice system for many people IF the evolution stays this way.
  22. jm1220
    The overall evolution is what we should care about at this range. Any snow map is eye candy as the storm is happening (got burned on the last weekend storm myself) much less 120hrs out.
  23. jm1220
    It's ridiculous at this range but it can be too cold aloft for best ratios. Surface temps also don't determine ratios. I remember numerous occasions where I had 10-1 at best sand flakes living at Penn State with temps in the low teens. Dendrites are -12 to -18C, colder than that also hurts ratios. But any snow map at this range especially is ridiculous, at this range you only care about the pattern coming in and overall evolution. Looks good to me which is what I care about.
  24. jm1220
    Yep, definitely looks like a situation where it tries to cut north to Cape May and then we see how strong the confluence is and it gets forced east?
  25. jm1220
    I'm still thinking we want a more amped Mon system. CMC suppresses it from what I saw. The more amped Mon system could flatten the flow behind it a little more and reinforce the confluence and cold air. You can see that the Wed system tries to hug/cut initially but is forced east by that confluence. Hopefully it can end up a little further north for our inland guys but keep the R/S line well offshore. I don't see a total miss here due to how vigorous the trough and wave is coming in-it'll put up a lot of resistance.
×
×
  • Create New...