jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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25 here. Shame it's for nothing.
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30 here. Too bad it'll all be over here sooner than you can say "it's over" once winds turn SE. The retreating high and onshore flow are ruining it.
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K.
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It would be hard any time of year for this to be snow at the coast when we have strong onshore flow to deal with as the storm comes in, maybe if we had a significantly colder leading airmass. You can see clearly how the fairly marginal cold retreats as the storm moves in. If the high could hang on we would have a chance but again the fast progressive pattern bites us. Storm is also gone before it can fully mature at the mid levels, so we don’t get a CCB to form and cold air to work back in.
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We have a retreating high and southerly flow blasting us as the storm is coming in. Also the low is still forming in the mid levels near us and unable to wrap cold air back south in time.
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Yep, starting to look like you have to get into the Catskills before you see warning type snow amounts.
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It’s fine that there’s a headline. It will be a disruptive storm event for the northern areas of the subforum and it’s the first real winter storm of the season even if for most posters it will be rain.
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"about everyone"-those of us in NYC and coast. Where you are and I-84 corridor, still hopefully a decent event. Hopefully a good surprise can happen for many of us. I-84 corridor still looks in decent shape. Cold rain sucks but I'll deal.
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Veterans Day likely had more flakes than any of us at/near the coast get on Tue. Probably just wall to wall rain.
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NAM is usually over amped at this range but clear at this point this will be a N/W storm and well NW at that
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And then we had 12/5-6/03 which was even better. And the 12/5 snow was mostly unexpected.
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I’m about done with this one. Expecting a washout IMBY and around the city.
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Too early to say and too many unknowns. A weaker system without good dynamics, weaker cold push in front of the storm, etc could ruin it even with a better track. Stronger storm obviously brings the possibility it's too amped and has strong onshore flow. I'd say there's a narrow Goldilocks zone for the city to get some decent snow, but very narrow with a dynamic enough system, good cold push and good track. The possibilities expand a lot more NW of the city which is the usual especially this time of year.
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We absolutely want a good source region for surface cold but if the mid levels are torched/ruined by a too late low transfer to the coast, the surface doesn’t matter unless you’re into a lot of sleet or ZR. This setup seems like there’s enough cold air to the north at the surface that we’re more interested in when the low transfers to the coast and surface wind direction. A transfer too late keeps winds onshore and torches our surface, or torches the mid levels by a bad 700/850 low track to our west. You also really want to watch the mid level low evolution in a storm like this and where the 700/850 lows track.
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As for this upcoming event, if we can redevelop the coastal low soon enough and keep winds offshore, we have a shot on LI and the city especially northern. If winds go onshore we’re done.
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We take what we can get here whenever it happens. There could be 20 feet of snow inland, won’t make any difference if the cutter and SWFE train starts.
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Ain’t that awesome.
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If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously.
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We’ve had accumulating snow right down to the beaches in less than ideal cold-Nov 2018 being the most recent example but numerous others. We really just don’t want the wind shifting to onshore.
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Yep, this time of year especially we need a strong cold air source on storm day, if that high slips east winds turn onshore and it’s game over.
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If we can keep the western ridge, it should keep the SE ridge in check enough to give us a chance at a good storm track near the coast. There should be cold air to the north to pull down. But if we lose that ridge we risk it turning into a SWFE buzz kill because the SE ridge will respond and overwhelm it.
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If we’re dealing with an overrunning SWFE parade I’ll gladly pass. 95% of those are quick sleet to rain, just rain or slop to rain here while we watch I-90 get 6”+. Gradient patterns here are way more often than not lame crap. If we can get storms to slide SE of here or redevelop south of our latitude I’ll be more interested.
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Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino.
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One trillion percent pass on that month and season here where we watched I-90 get buried over and over while it cold rained IMBY. Looks like a SWFE parade being favored which I’ll never be a fan of where I am despite the one or two rabbits out of the hat that can luck out. I’m sure you’re drooling though.
