Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,795

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Major flooding expected at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst Sun overnight especially.
  2. jm1220
    Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all.
  3. jm1220
    Turning into just a nasty nuisance for most of the long weekend for many.
  4. jm1220
    I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.
  5. jm1220
    Guess we keep watering. Would be nice to give the sprinklers a break.
  6. jm1220
    Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed.
  7. jm1220
    Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs.
  8. jm1220
    Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter!
  9. jm1220
    36 here.
  10. jm1220
    As we should all know now with these it’s a very fickle evolution and small details will cause big changes in outcome. Looks pretty likely though we have a developing strong offshore low and easterly wind that causes beach erosion/flooding.
  11. jm1220
    We have to watch for where any deform axis sets up west of the low, and any strong easterly flow would favor eastern slopes for heavier rains. Biggest concern of course is the strong easterly flow winds pounding the beaches over 2+ days and flooding in the back bays.
  12. jm1220
    Looks like about 0.3” in general east of the city, a few spots with a little more. Another disappointment/bust.
  13. jm1220
    And it makes intuitive sense that more Siberian snow creates a contrast with the warm W PAC near Japan and enhances the Pacific jet. The warm mid latitudes may be altering the Hadley Cell which some have pointed out. So to me it makes sense how these factors work together to ruin our pattern where I live for snow. I don’t like it but the planet and its feedbacks don’t care what I want. Guess I can buy a cabin in ME for the winter where there are still plenty of very snowy winters left to look forward to.
  14. jm1220
    Yep, outside of a lucky spot or two 0.30” or less east of the city.
  15. jm1220
    Front/squall line coming through. We’ll see if any of this rain over NJ comes through. Otherwise it looks like the split screw is happening as expected. Onto the weekend (hopefully) event.
  16. jm1220
    The weekend deal if it happens is an occluding low cut off from cold air. It would be a cold windy rain on the coast and maybe snow inland/elevated.
  17. jm1220
    Most models to some extent have the split-screw for I-95. I'm not optimistic for most except the NW crew. We'll see in the morning.
  18. jm1220
    Hilarious/sad how this time of year is when the hype/weenie winter maps etc start getting trotted out to juice up the subscribers.
  19. jm1220
    We’ll see. Ground is bone dry so the rain is badly needed.
  20. jm1220
    Yep-the more infamous winter was the year before at Valley Forge, but that winter is said to have been even colder and deadlier.
  21. jm1220
    The front is coming through in the morning. Not a good time if we want organized rain. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if this is another bust.
  22. jm1220
    I'll jump for joy even if MBY makes it to 30" this winter. The average since 1995 here is in the mid 30" range-similar to CT coast.
  23. jm1220
    Models seem to be shifting Wed's rain to.... wait for it... drum roll.... north and west of the city again! Seems like the front comes through in the morning which is the worst time heating-wise to generate showers/storms. So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it fizzle out.
  24. jm1220
    The polar jet/cold air source is way north in Canada and this low would entirely be a product of the subtropical jet. It would be cold rain or a mix like what we had in 97-98 or 23-24. But that’s if it even develops.
  25. jm1220
    Last winter was torture here-nothing worse than freezing with some cirrus while watching the Deep South get slammed, then when a storm can finally make it here it turns into a SWFE (we had one decent 4-6” SWFE in Feb but that’s the exception around NYC) or cutter. I’d rather have the 22-23 scenario where like you said it was clear way out in time our window is slammed shut.
×
×
  • Create New...